Risk Scoring Systems to Predict In-Hospital Mortality in Patients with Acute Variceal Bleeding due to Hepatitis C Virusinduced Liver Cirrhosis

This study was designed to validate and to compare accuracy of the prognostic scores; mainly Child Turcotte Pugh (CTP), creatinine-modified Child Turcotte Pugh (CTP-Cr), model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), albumin bilirubin score (ALBI), and AIMS65, for the predicting clinical outcomes in cirrhotic Egyptian patients presenting with acute variceal bleeding (AVB). Retrospective single center study involving 725 patients presenting with AVB due to liver cirrhosis and HCV infection either alone or mixed with HBV infection. In hospital mortality prognostic scores were calculated; mainly CTP, modified CTP-Cr, MELD, ALBI, AIMS65. The endpoint is either patient improvement or death. 725 patients were included over 1-year period. 547 (75%) survived and 178 (25%) died. Patients presented with hematemesis (515/71%), melena (120/16.5%) or hematemesis and melena (90/12.5%). Those with hematemesis for the first time were 241 (33%) and recurrent attacks were 484 (66.8%). The non-survivors had significantly more incidence of shock on presentation, more blood transfused units, history of NSAIDS intake, more ICU admission days and were more likely to be Childs C. Child, modified CTP-Cr, MELD, ALBI and ALMS65 scoring systems showed significant difference between survivors and nonsurvivors. Liver specific scores (Child, MELD) and gastrointestinal bleeding scoring systems (ALBI, AIMS65) are useful in predicting clinical outcomes of AVB in cirrhotic patients. CTP-Cr score had the highest prognostic capability of in hospital mortality. Presence of active bleeding at time of endoscopy, more complications, old age, shock and higher CPT-Cr score are additional independent predictors of in hospital mortality

Predictors of In-Hospital Mortality in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and Acute Variceal bleeding

Introduction: Detection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in cirrhotic patients remains a serious, unsolved problem, and the risk factors for acute variceal bleeding (AVB) in HCC patients remain unclear. This study aimed to determine the in-hospital mortality (IHM) and factors influencing the clinical outcomes of AVB in patients with liver cirrhosis and HCC. Methods: This was a retrospective, non-randomized, clinical study that was conducted in 2014. The study was conducted on 70 patients with liver cirrhosis and HCC presenting by acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIH). All patients were examined endoscopically within 24 hours from presentation and bleeding varices accounted for AUGIH. Full medical history, clinical examination, and laboratory and radiologic data were collected from admission charts, and hospital medical records were statistically analyzed with SSPS version 22. Results: Thirty-two patients (45.7%) survived and 38 died (54.3%). Survivors are more likely to be Child-Pugh class A or B, and the non-survivors were class C. The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) was highly predictive of IHM at an optimized cut-off value of ≥ 12.9. Higher esophageal varices grades and presence of active bleeding on index endoscopy were significant (p < 0.01) in the non-survivors compared to survivors. Complications of liver cirrhosis and associated major comorbidity were significantly higher (p < 0.01) in the non- survivors than the survivors. Univariate logistic regression analysis identified higher Grade Esophageal Varices and number of transfused packed red blood cells units as two independent predictors of IHM. Conclusions: IHM was particularly high (54.3%) among HCC patients with AVB who had MELD score > 12.9, higher grade Esophageal Varices, active bleeding on index endoscopy, more increased needs for blood transfusion, longer hospital stay, decompensated liver disease with major comorbidity

Serum Markers of Epithelial Mesenchymal Transition as Predictors of HCV-induced Liver Fibrosis, Cirrhosis and Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Introduction: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a major cause of chronic liver disease in Egypt, leading to hepatic fibrosis, liver cirrhosis (LC), and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Liver fibrosis is characterized by excessive deposition of extracellular matrix (ECM). Newly-recognized pathogenic mechanisms point to the epithelial- mesenchymal transition (EMT) of hepatocytes to matrix synthesizing (myo-) fibroblasts. Transforming growth factor-beta (TGF-β1), bone morphogenic protein (BMP)-7, and connective tissue growth factor (CTGF) are biomarkers reflecting the EMT process. YKL-40 is a glycoprotein member of ECM and plays a role in cancer cell proliferation. The purpose of this study was to determine the serum biomarkers of EMT and its impact on the fibrogenic process and tumorigenesis in HCV-genotype 4 patients. Methods: In this case-control study that was conducted in 2013-2014, 97 HCV-infected patients were subjected to clinical examination, laboratory investigations, and liver biopsy. According to the histopathologic examination, they were classified to F0 (14 cases), F1 (17 cases), F2 (15 cases), F3 (18 cases), F4 (22 cases), and HCC (11 cases). Fifteen age- and gender-matched subjects were included as normal controls. Serum levels of TGF-β1, BMP-7, CTGF, YKL-40 were assessed, and the TGF-β1/BMP-7 ratios were calculated. The data were analyzed by plotting the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient, and Spearman's rank correlation coefficient (Spearman's rho). Results: Serum levels of TGF-β1, BMP-7, CTGF, and YKL-40 were significantly increased in all patient groups compared to controls (p < 0.001). LC exhibited the highest CTGF level and YKL-40 was highest in HCC. The TGF-β1/ BMP-7 ratios reflected the progression of EMT from CHC to LC, however, there was no significant difference between LC and HCC. TGF-β1/ BMP-7 ratio is considered to reflect positive correlation with CTGF in LC group (r = 0.629; p < 0.03) and YKL-40 in HCC group (r = 0.504; p < 0.04). Conclusion: Increased TGF-β1/BMP-7 ratio and CTGF levels reflect the rate of EMT and provide information about fibrogenic activity. Also, this ratio, in association with YKL-40, can be used to predict malignant transformation in HCV-genotype 4 Egyptian patients