Tourism in Scotland

In 1978 13.2 million tourist and business travellers spent £523 million in Scotland, Foreign visitors, although only 8.5% of the total, contributed £158 million (ie 30.2%) of tourist expenditure. As such tourism is both an "invisible" export, since it is a means of earning foreign exchange, and a significant provider of jobs, many of which are created in the remoter rural areas. Despite its importance statistics relating specifically to tourism are not readily available from published sources. The "industry" actually combines the resources of a wide range of activities, most of which have economic and social links with other sectors of the economy independent from tourism. These include hotels and catering, transport and travel services as well as entertainment, sport and recreation facilities. Consequently the economic impact of tourism is generally assessed not in terms of employment and output but by more indirect measures such as numbers of visitors, or bednights spent in Scotland, as well as tourist expenditure and hotel occupancy data. This brief will examine the wider economic impact of Scotland's tourism industry and its future

Review of the quarter's economic trends [May 1983]

The one thing this recovery does not lack is confidence. Surveys of business opinion in all the major economies reveal a greater level of optimism amongst the business community than at any time since 1979. But confidence alone is not adequate for a sustained recovery though it certainly helps. As this brief analysis shows, two constraints stand in the way of a worldwide upturn: real interest rates remain high and the response of governments to any acceleration of inflation remains unknown. The downward rigidity of nominal interest rates bears witness to the financial markets' belief that present low levels of inflation are not sustainable, yet if governments react to the expected mild acceleration of inflation in the latter half of this year with the policies of the recent past no significant recovery is likely. Further analysis of UK and world economic data are provided

Review of the quarter's economic trends [April 1980]

This brief paper surveys recent world and UK economic data and reveals that there are some signs to suggest that the world economy will withstand the 1979 oil price shock better than it did in 1973/74. The main difference is that the 1979 price rise was not super-imposed on as severe an inflation as that which occurred on the previous occasion. The present rate of increase in the world prices should not reach the levels of the last cycle when the twelve month increase in manufacturing prices peaked at 23%. Advance warning by US economists that 1979 was going to be a year of difficulty did not go unnoticed by businessmen in that country who took steps in 1978 to avoid a repetition of the inventory boom and bust cycle which had proved so costly in the recession of 1973/74. Also, consumer expectations are adjusting towards a continuing rise in the price of oil. In the UK real GDP is expected to fall by 2½% from mid-year 1980. Thereafter, it is assumed to grow at an average annual rate of 1% for the next four years

The tax and price index

A feature of this year's Budget was the shift in emphasis from direct taxation to indirect taxation. The annual yield of income tax has been reduced by £4½ billion while that of direct taxes was increased by a similar amount. It must be acknowledged that the new tax and price index has a number of deficiencies. It is only applicable to a proportion of the population, namely those who pay tax and whose gross income is less than £10,000 per annum. It takes no account of the social wage, nor of changes in benefits, such as the recent restructuring of child allowance. It smoothes out tax payments over a full year even though, for administrative reasons, these may fluctuate widely from month to month. This brief paper explores some of these deficiencies in more detail and assess their impact on taxation

The Scottish economy [October 1979]

The previous two issues of this Commentary have both indicated that the Scottish economy has been performing poorly since the mid 1970's. This is true in both an absolute and a relative sense. Manufacturing production only increased by 1.2% between 1976 and 1978 and, after dropping below 1975 levels in the first quarter of 1979, is unlikely to show any substantial improvement for the year as a whole. In an international context the 1975-1978 performance can best be described as appalling. Over the same period industrial production in Eire grew by 28%, in Japan and the US by 23% and in West Germany and France by 15%. Inertia in developing new markets and lack of competitiveness in existing markets both contributed substantially to the virtual stagnation of Scottish output. Because the problems are so diverse, so too must be the solutions

Scotland's craft industry : quality not quantity

Throughout Scotland there are a large number of small craft enterprises such as potters, weavers, jewellers and the like. The success of these ventures has given an added boost to the tourism industry in Scotland, as suggested by Harvie, and is a good example of indigenous skills replacing foreign imports. Indeed the proliferation of craft enterprises is itself an indication of their success. However tourism, whilst important, cannot fully explain the rejuvenation of crafts over the recent past in Scotland. Harvie, for example, implies thatnot only has the potential for import substitution been recognised but also that consumption patterns themselves have changed. Society appears to have a different set of values and aspirations. The aim of this Brief is to describe the current structure of the craft industry in Scotland emphasising the historical associations which have provided a sound springboard from which to promote and market a wide range of modern craft products. Finally it is intended to discuss some issues relating to the future of the craft manufacturing units, bearing in mind that not only are they vulnerable to changes in consumer tastes but also to the economic pressures which determine the ability of all firms to survive in a commercial and competitive market place

Job generation in Scottish manufacturing industry

Small firms are currently much in vogue. Indeed all the main political parties see them playing an important role in the future regeneration of the UK economy. From virtually total neglect as far as policy is concerned, small firms have recently come to be regarded as an important vehicle both for the rejuvenation of our industrial structure and more importantly for the generation of new jobs. However the basis for this belief has not always been very clear. Prior to the Bolton Report (1971) small firms were thought to have no significant role to play in the management and control of economic activity in the economy. Since then however, a small firm revival of sorts has taken place, possibly identified most by Schumacher's "Small is Beautiful" (1974). With the publication of the Birch Report (1979) the job generation potential of small firms appeared to have been established at least for the US. During the period 1960-1976 firms employing 20 employees or less across all sectors were found to have generated 66? of all net new jobs in the US. It was tempting to transfer these results to the UK. However a subsequent study carried out in the UK (Fothergill and Gudgin (1979)) found that small firms, at least in the manufacturing sector, did not hold quite the same job creating potential. They also pointed out that Birch's findings for the manufacturing sector in the US were in fact very similar to their own. It was the service sector in the US, in which the small firm predominates, that had created the vast majority of jobs. This article attempts to further this area of research by looking at the employment contribution of small manufacturing establishments in Scotland over the period 1954-1974. Using data from the Scottish Manufacturing Establishments Record (SCOMER) a components of change analysis by different size bands of establishments is carried out. It is important to note that we are talking here of small units or establishments as opposed to small firms as such. Where a firm has several distinct manufacturing establishments each of these is seen and recorded in SCOMER as a separate unit. So although not definitionally accurate, the terms firms, units and establishments are used synonomously

The Scottish economy [November 1982]

The short-term outlook for the Scottish economy remains fairly pessimistic. Though recent falls in interest rates may give a small filip to consumer demand around Christmas, there are no immediate prospects for an upsurge in industrial output. Import propensities are now so high as to negate most of the beneficial effects of an increase in demand. The forecasts detailed below reflect this increasingly pessimistic view of short-term developments in the Scottish economy. Unemployment, which averaged 352,000 in the third quarter of 1982 could rise to 369,000 thousand by the end of 1983 if present trends continue. With no significant stimulus to demand in the offing, any substantive improvement in labour market conditions is likely to be postponed, at least until 1984

Review of the quarter's economic trends [February 1983]

Most forecasters, including the Treasury itself, predict a modest recovery in the economy this year. The emphasis is however on "modest", with predictions for GDP growth in the range of 1.5$-2.5%, and a further rise in unemployment. In the past month however there have been more favourable indications of renewed growth in the international economy, particularly in the United States, and this, combined with the recent depreciation of sterling, will improve the prospects for UK exports. Actual growth in GDP may be therefore nearer the upper end of the recent range of forecasts. Further analysis of the UK's economic prospects, as well as the world economy, are provided in this trend paper