Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Union in the Presence of Uncertainty about the Central Bank Preferences.

In this paper, we examine the link between political transparency of a common central bank (CCB) and decentralized supply-side fiscal policies in a monetary union. We find that the opacity of a conservative CCB has a restrictive effect on national fiscal policies since each government internalizes the influence of its actions on the common monetary policy and thus reinforces the disciplinary effect of institutional constraints such as the Stability and Growth Pact on national fiscal authorities. However, more opacity could imply higher inflation and unemployment when the union is large enough and induce higher inflation and output-gap variability. An enlargement of the union incites national governments to increase tax rate, and weakens the disciplinary effects of opacity on member countries if fiscal policymaking is relatively decentralized and the CCB quite conservative. It induces an increase in the level of inflation and unemployment, and could increase inflation and outputgap variability.central bank transparency; supply-side fiscal policy; monetary union.

Inflation Targeting, Capital Mobility and Macroeconomic Stability

In this paper we examine the macroeconomic stability in a simple dynamic open economy model, in which monetary authorities adopt an flexible inflation-targeting regime in an environment with a liberalised capital account and flexible exchange rates. In this respect, inflation targeting is an essential part of a three-part policy (or trinity) that also includes flexible exchange rate and capital mobility. We show that a low degree of inflation targeting flexibility (i.e., central bank�s response is aggressive toward inflation) with a high degree of capital mobility implies a dynamically unstable solution in this simple rational expectations model. In contrast, when central bank adopts a high degree of inflation-targeting flexibility (accommodative central bank), stability can be ensured under any degree of capital mobility. Finally, under low degree of inflation targeting flexibility, it seems necessary to limit the degree of capital mobility in order to maintain stability in countries opening their economies to international capital flows, mainly in emerging market and transition economies.Inflation targeting, optimal monetary policy, capital account liberalisation

Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Union Under Alternative Labour-Market Structures.

This paper examines the welfare and stabilisation implications of alterna- tive fiscal decision rules in a monetary union with a common monetary policy, such as the European Monetary Union (EMU). We develop a two-country model under monetary union in presnece of asymmetries. Fiscal policies are assumed alternatively non-cooperative (decentralised) and cooperative (centralised) and labour markets are characterised by decentralised and centralised wage setting. The central issue of the paper is the design of the appropriate fiscal policy rule by comparing and evaluating the performance of alternative arrangements to distribute the power over fiscal authorities between the centre of the union and the individual members of the union. The main result of this paper reveals that a decentralized fiscal policy rule, where the member states conduct independent fiscal policies, with centralised wage setting in labour markets of monetary union members is the appropriate institutional design. This institutional arrangement would improve the social welfare and stabilize better than others the idiosyncratic shocks hitting the economies of the monetary union members.Policy-mix, EMU, labor market institutions.

Public investment, distortionary taxes and monetary policy transparency

In a two-period model with distortionay tax and public investment, we reexamine the interaction between monetary policy transparency and fiscal bias. We find that the optimal decisions of tax and public investment allow eliminating the effects of fiscal bias and hence neutralizing the impact of monetary policy opacity (lack of political transparency) on the level and variability of inflation and output, independently of institutional quality. Our results are robust under alternative game structures between the private sector, the government and the central bank.bank transparency, distortionay tax, public investment, fiscal bias

Monetary and fiscal policy interactions with central bank transparency and public investment.

In this paper, we study how the interactions between central bank transparency and fiscal policy affect macroeconomic performance and volatility, in a framework where productivity-enhancing public investment could improve future growth potential. We analyze the effects of central bank’s opacity (lack of transparency) according to the marginal effect of public investment by considering the Stackelberg equilibrium where the government is the first mover and the central bank the follower. We show that the optimal choice of tax rate and public investment, when the public investment is highly productivity-enhancing, eliminates the effects of distortionary taxation and fully counterbalance both the direct and the fiscal-disciplining effects of opacity, on the level and variability of inflation and output gap. In the case where the public investment is not sufficiently productivity-enhancing, opacity could still have some disciplining effects as in the benchmark model, which ignores the effects of public investment.Distortionary taxes, output distortions, productivity-enhancing public investment, central bank transparency (opacity), fiscal disciplining effect.

Flexibility in inflation targeting, financial markets and macroeconomic stability

Using an aggregate dynamic macroeconomic model, we study the macroeconomic and financial stability under flexible inflation-targeting regime associated with intermediate monetary growth target. Central banks, using the inflation target as a communication and strong nominal anchoring device, should also take into account the movements of asset prices in their optimal interest rate rule. They might react to changes in asset prices without introducing asset prices into the description of their policy objectives. We show that, the more flexible the inflation-targeting framework of monetary policy is, the more likely the monetary authorities are able to stabilise the economy around the long-term equilibrium. Therefore, achieving price stability under inflation-targeting regime with low flexibility can generate dynamic instability and will not be able to stabilise effectively the fluctuations of output and inflation. A commitment to a long run growth rate of money supply corresponding to the inflation target can reinforce the credibility of the central bank and the role of inflation target as strong and credible nominal anchor for private inflation expectations and allows the system to be more stability prone.Flexible inflation targeting, monetary targeting, optimal interest rate rule, stock price, financial development, financial markets, financial and macroeconomic instability

Robust Control and Monetary Policy Delegation

This paper adapts in a simple static context the Rogoff's (1985) analysis of monetary policy delegation to a conservative central banker to the robust control framework. In this framework, uncertainty means that policymakers are unsure about their model, in the sense that there is a group of approximate models that they also consider as possibly true, and their objective is to choose a rule that will work under a range of di¤erent model specifications. We find that robustness reveals the emergence of a precautionary behaviour in the case of unstructured model uncertainty, reducing thus government's willingness to delegate monetary policy to a conservative central banker.Robust control; Monetary policy delegation; Central bank conservativeness.

Monetary and fiscal policy interactions with central bank transparency and public investment

In this paper, we study how the interactions between central bank transparency and fiscal policy affect macroeconomic performance and volatility, in a framework where productivity-enhancing public investment could improve future growth potential. We analyze the effects of central bank’s opacity (lack of transparency) according to the marginal effect of public investment by considering the Stackelberg equilibrium where the government is the first mover and the central bank the follower. We show that the optimal choice of tax rate and public investment, when the public investment is highly productivity-enhancing, eliminates the effects of distortionary taxation and fully counterbalance both the direct and the fiscal-disciplining effects of opacity, on the level and variability of inflation and output gap. In the case where the public investment is not sufficiently productivity-enhancing, opacity could still have some disciplining effects as in the benchmark model, which ignores the effects of public investment.Distortionary taxes, output distortions, productivity-enhancing public investment, central bank transparency (opacity), fiscal disciplining effect.

Fiscal disciplining effect of central bank opacity: Stackelberg versus Nash equilibrium.

Several recent studies have shown that, when fiscal and monetary authorities play a Stackelberg game, central bank opacity has a fiscal disciplining effect in the sense that it induces the government to reduce taxes and public expenditures, leading hence to lower inflation and output distortions, and lower macroeconomic variability. We show in this paper that, in a Nash equilibrium, the government is still disciplined by central bank opacity. However, the disciplining effect on the level and variability of inflation and the output gap is dominated by the direct effect of opacity.Distortionary taxes, output distortions, central bank transparency (opacity), fiscal disciplining effect.

Monetary policy transparency and inflation persistence in a small open economy

Using a New Keynesian small open economy model, we examine the effects of central bank transparency on inflation persistence. We have found that more opacity could reinforce the effect of persistent shocks on the level and variability of endogenous variables if the difference between the interest elasticity of domestic goods demand and the degree of trade openness is sufficient large or sufficiently low, judging on structural parameters characterising the economy, the central bank preference and its initial degree of opacity. Our result implies that, under perfect capital mobility, a high degree of domestic financial development is a good reason for increasing the transparency.Central bank’s transparency, open economy, inflation persistence, real exchange rate persistence