Use of re-randomized data in meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Outcomes collected in randomized clinical trials are observations of random variables that should be independent and identically distributed. However, in some trials, the patients are randomized more than once thus violating both of these assumptions. The probability of an event is not always the same when a patient is re-randomized; there is probably a non-zero covariance coming from observations on the same patient. This is of particular importance to the meta-analysts. METHODS: We developed a method to estimate the relative error in the risk differences with and without re-randomization of the patients. The relative error can be estimated by an expression depending on the percentage of the patients who were re-randomized, multipliers (how many times more likely it is to repeat an event) for the probability of reoccurrences, and the ratio of the total events reported and the initial number of patients entering the trial. RESULTS: We illustrate our methods using two randomized trials testing growth factors in febrile neutropenia. We showed that under some circumstances the relative error of taking into account re-randomized patients was sufficiently small to allow using the results in the meta-analysis. Our findings indicate that if the study in question is of similar size to other studies included in the meta-analysis, the error introduced by re-randomization will only minimally affect meta-analytic summary point estimate. We also show that in our model the risk ratio remains constant during the re-randomization, and therefore, if a meta-analyst is concerned about the effect of re-randomization on the meta-analysis, one way to sidestep the issue and still obtain reliable results is to use risk ratio as the measure of interest. CONCLUSION: Our method should be helpful in the understanding of the results of clinical trials and particularly helpful to the meta-analysts to assess if re-randomized patient data can be used in their analyses

Interplay between telecommunications and face-to-face interactions - a study using mobile phone data

In this study we analyze one year of anonymized telecommunications data for over one million customers from a large European cellphone operator, and we investigate the relationship between people's calls and their physical location. We discover that more than 90% of users who have called each other have also shared the same space (cell tower), even if they live far apart. Moreover, we find that close to 70% of users who call each other frequently (at least once per month on average) have shared the same space at the same time - an instance that we call co-location. Co-locations appear indicative of coordination calls, which occur just before face-to-face meetings. Their number is highly predictable based on the amount of calls between two users and the distance between their home locations - suggesting a new way to quantify the interplay between telecommunications and face-to-face interactions

MTN-001: Randomized Pharmacokinetic Cross-Over Study Comparing Tenofovir Vaginal Gel and Oral Tablets in Vaginal Tissue and Other Compartments

Background: Oral and vaginal preparations of tenofovir as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection have demonstrated variable efficacy in men and women prompting assessment of variation in drug concentration as an explanation. Knowledge of tenofovir concentration and its active form, tenofovir diphosphate, at the putative vaginal and rectal site of action and its relationship to concentrations at multiple other anatomic locations may provide key information for both interpreting PrEP study outcomes and planning future PrEP drug development. Objective: MTN-001 was designed to directly compare oral to vaginal steady-state tenofovir pharmacokinetics in blood, vaginal tissue, and vaginal and rectal fluid in a paired cross-over design. Methods and Findings: We enrolled 144 HIV-uninfected women at 4 US and 3 African clinical research sites in an open label, 3-period crossover study of three different daily tenofovir regimens, each for 6 weeks (oral 300 mg tenofovir disoproxil fumarate, vaginal 1% tenofovir gel [40 mg], or both). Serum concentrations after vaginal dosing were 56-fold lower than after oral dosing (p<0.001). Vaginal tissue tenofovir diphosphate was quantifiable in ≥90% of women with vaginal dosing and only 19% of women with oral dosing. Vaginal tissue tenofovir diphosphate was ≥130-fold higher with vaginal compared to oral dosing (p<0.001). Rectal fluid tenofovir concentrations in vaginal dosing periods were higher than concentrations measured in the oral only dosing period (p<0.03). Conclusions: Compared to oral dosing, vaginal dosing achieved much lower serum concentrations and much higher vaginal tissue concentrations. Even allowing for 100-fold concentration differences due to poor adherence or less frequent prescribed dosing, vaginal dosing of tenofovir should provide higher active site concentrations and theoretically greater PrEP efficacy than oral dosing; randomized topical dosing PrEP trials to the contrary indicates that factors beyond tenofovir's antiviral effect substantially influence PrEP efficacy. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00592124

Fundamental Strings, Holography, and Nonlinear Superconformal Algebras

We discuss aspects of holography in the AdS_3 \times S^p near string geometry of a collection of straight fundamental heterotic strings. We use anomalies and symmetries to determine general features of the dual CFT. The symmetries suggest the appearance of nonlinear superconformal algebras, and we show how these arise in the framework of holographic renormalization methods. The nonlinear algebras imply intricate formulas for the central charge, and we show that in the bulk these correspond to an infinite series of quantum gravity corrections. We also makes some comments on the worldsheet sigma-model for strings on AdS_3\times S^2, which is the holographic dual geometry of parallel heterotic strings in five dimensions.Comment: 25 page

Impact of growth matrix on pharmacodynamics of antimicrobial drugs for pig pneumonia pathogens

Abstract Background The most widely used measure of potency of antimicrobial drugs is Minimum Inhibitory Concentration (MIC). MIC is usually determined under standardised conditions in broths formulated to optimise bacterial growth on a species-by-species basis. This ensures comparability of data between laboratories. However, differences in values of MIC may arise between broths of differing chemical composition and for some drug classes major differences occur between broths and biological fluids such as serum and inflammatory exudate. Such differences must be taken into account, when breakpoint PK/PD indices are derived and used to predict dosages for clinical use. There is therefore interest in comparing MIC values in several broths and, in particular, in comparing broth values with those generated in serum. For the pig pneumonia pathogens, Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae and Pasteurella multocida, MICs were determined for three drugs, florfenicol, oxytetracycline and marbofloxacin, in five broths [Mueller Hinton Broth (MHB), cation-adjusted Mueller Hinton Broth (CAMHB), Columbia Broth supplemented with NAD (CB), Brain Heart Infusion Broth (BHI) and Tryptic Soy Broth (TSB)] and in pig serum. Results For each drug, similar MIC values were obtained in all broths, with one exception, marbofloxacin having similar MICs for three broths and 4–5-fold higher MICs for two broths. In contrast, for both organisms, quantitative differences between broth and pig serum MICs were obtained after correction of MICs for drug binding to serum protein (fu serum MIC). Potency was greater (fu serum MIC lower) in serum than in broths for marbofloxacin and florfenicol for both organisms. For oxytetracycline fu serum:broth MIC ratios were 6.30:1 (P. multocida) and 0.35:1 (A. pleuropneumoniae), so that potency of this drug was reduced for the former species and increased for the latter species. The chemical composition of pig serum and broths was compared; major matrix differences in 14 constituents did not account for MIC differences. Bacterial growth rates were compared in broths and pig serum in the absence of drugs; it was concluded that broth/serum MIC differences might be due to differing growth rates in some but not all instances. Conclusions For all organisms and all drugs investigated in this study, it is suggested that broth MICs should be adjusted by an appropriate scaling factor when used to determine pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic breakpoints for dosage prediction

Dissociable effects of 5-HT2C receptor antagonism and genetic inactivation on perseverance and learned non-reward in an egocentric spatial reversal task

Cognitive flexibility can be assessed in reversal learning tests, which are sensitive to modulation of 5-HT2C receptor (5-HT2CR) function. Successful performance in these tests depends on at least two dissociable cognitive mechanisms which may separately dissipate associations of previous positive and negative valence. The first is opposed by perseverance and the second by learned non-reward. The current experiments explored the effect of reducing function of the 5-HT2CR on the cognitive mechanisms underlying egocentric reversal learning in the mouse. Experiment 1 used the 5-HT2CR antagonist SB242084 (0.5 mg/kg) in a between-groups serial design and Experiment 2 used 5-HT2CR KO mice in a repeated measures design. Animals initially learned to discriminate between two egocentric turning directions, only one of which was food rewarded (denoted CS+, CS−), in a T- or Y-maze configuration. This was followed by three conditions; (1) Full reversal, where contingencies reversed; (2) Perseverance, where the previous CS+ became CS− and the previous CS− was replaced by a novel CS+; (3) Learned non-reward, where the previous CS− became CS+ and the previous CS+ was replaced by a novel CS-. SB242084 reduced perseverance, observed as a decrease in trials and incorrect responses to criterion, but increased learned non-reward, observed as an increase in trials to criterion. In contrast, 5-HT2CR KO mice showed increased perseverance. 5-HT2CR KO mice also showed retarded egocentric discrimination learning. Neither manipulation of 5-HT2CR function affected performance in the full reversal test. These results are unlikely to be accounted for by increased novelty attraction, as SB242084 failed to affect performance in an unrewarded novelty task. In conclusion, acute 5-HT2CR antagonism and constitutive loss of the 5-HT2CR have opposing effects on perseverance in egocentric reversal learning in mice. It is likely that this difference reflects the broader impact of 5HT2CR loss on the development and maintenance of cognitive function

The effects of symmetry on the dynamics of antigenic variation

In the studies of dynamics of pathogens and their interactions with a host immune system, an important role is played by the structure of antigenic variants associated with a pathogen. Using the example of a model of antigenic variation in malaria, we show how many of the observed dynamical regimes can be explained in terms of the symmetry of interactions between different antigenic variants. The results of this analysis are quite generic, and have wider implications for understanding the dynamics of immune escape of other parasites, as well as for the dynamics of multi-strain diseases.Comment: 21 pages, 4 figures; J. Math. Biol. (2012), Online Firs

Peripheral blood monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio at study enrollment predicts efficacy of the RTS,S malaria vaccine: analysis of pooled phase II clinical trial data.

BACKGROUND: RTS,S is the most advanced candidate malaria vaccine but it is only partially protective and the causes of inter-individual variation in efficacy are poorly understood. Here, we investigated whether peripheral blood monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratios (ML ratio), previously shown to correlate with clinical malaria risk, could account for differences in RTS,S efficacy among phase II trial participants in Africa. METHODS: Of 11 geographical sites where RTS,S has been evaluated, pre-vaccination ML ratios were only available for trial participants in Kilifi, Kenya (N = 421) and Lambarene, Gabon (N = 189). Using time to first clinical malaria episode as the primary endpoint we evaluated the effect of accounting for ML ratio on RTS,S vaccine efficacy against clinical malaria by Cox regression modeling. RESULTS: The unadjusted efficacy of RTS,S in this combined dataset was 47% (95% confidence interval (CI) 26% to 62%, P <0.001). However, RTS,S efficacy decreased with increasing ML ratio, ranging from 67% (95% CI 64% to 70%) at an ML ratio of 0.1 to 5% (95% CI -3% to 13%) at an ML ratio of 0.6. The statistical interaction between RTS,S vaccination and ML ratio was still evident after adjustment for covariates associated with clinical malaria risk in this dataset. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that stratification of study participants by ML ratio, easily measured from full differential blood counts before vaccination, might help identify children who are highly protected and those that are refractory to protection with the RTS,S vaccine. Identifying causes of low vaccine efficacy among individuals with high ML ratio could inform strategies to improve overall RTS,S vaccine efficacy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.Gov numbers NCT00380393 and NCT00436007