MINIMIZING FARM-TO-MILL COTTON CLEANING COST

This study focuses on least-cost farm-to-mill cotton cleaning configurations employing survey, regression, and simulation techniques. The resulting least-cost cotton cleaning configurations, employing standard textile technology, included the use of one lint cleaning in the ginning stage. The use of a field cleaner in the harvesting stage was also found to be optimal with some variation based on the desired yarn quality. Results of the study indicated that the optimal cleaning configurations were distinctly different from currently used practices, such that appropriate changes could save the cotton industry between $0.30 and$0.60 per bale of cotton, depending on the desired yarn quality.Cotton cleaning, Least-cost configuration, Yarn quality, Crop Production/Industries,

Common Trends, Common Cycles, and Price Relationships in the International Fiber Market - Evidence from a Seemingly Unrelated Structural Time Series

This study shows that the stochastic process that governs price fluctuations in the international fiber market has transitory and permanent components. The results also indicate structural relationships between cotton price and wool price, wool price and oil price, rayon price and cotton price, and between polyester price and cotton price.Unobserved components, state-space, Kalman filter, fiber prices, cofeature, International Relations/Trade, C32, Q11,

Asymmetry, Risk, and Correlation Dynamics in the U.S. Fiber Market

This study looked at the dynamics of conditional correlations and hedging strategies in the US main cotton producing regions. A two-step procedure was utilized to model, estimate, and analyze volatility, conditional correlations, and the optimal hedge ratios using spot prices in the Delta, Southeast, Southern Plains, and the Southwest regions and the New York commodity exchanges December futures contracts. The results indicate that volatilities in most of the regions are asymmetric and persistent. The derived conditional correlations and the optimal hedging ratios are dynamic although they do not have unit root. Moreover, the changes in agricultural policies altered the dynamics of correlations and producers' hedging strategies in the Delta, Southeast, and Southern Plains regions.Cotton, volatility, asymmetry, multivariate conditional correlations, optimal, Risk and Uncertainty,

TEXAS - OKLAHOMA PRODUCER COTTON MARKET SUMMARY: 2001/2002

The volume of the Texas-Oklahoma spot cotton market analyzed by the Daily Price Estimation System (DPES) for the 2001/02 marketing year increased from 222,283 bales the previous year to 364,267 bales this year. The average price received by producers during the 2001/02 marketing year was 26.8 cents/lb, which is considerably less than the previous year. The 2001 crop was generally of good quality. The average micronaire level was higher in 2001 at 4.41, and the average number of bales having level 1 bark was up in comparison to the 2000 crop. With the exception of strength, price discounts for the 2001 crop decreased for all quality attributes, coupled with a decrease in premiums. In regard to strength, producers did not appear to receive a premium for higher levels of strength while lower levels of strength were discounted more severely than the previous year.Crop Production/Industries,

Texas-Oklahoma Producer Cotton Market Summary: 1997/98

The 1997/98 Texas-Oklahoma producer cotton markets experienced a decrease in the average producer price of almost 5.5 cents/lb. from the previous marketing year. Overall, quality was generally high and differed little from the 1996 crop. The size of the 1997 crop increased significantly, while the amount of cotton available in the spot market increased accordingly, possibly contributing to the fall in prices. With the exception of strength, discounts for the 1997 crop decreased for every quality attribute, while premiums increased for every quality attribute except staple.Crop Production/Industries,

Efficient Refuge policies for Bt cotton in India

This study examined the efficient refuge policies for Bt cotton for three cotton growing regions in India. This was accomplished by developing a single-pest, dual-toxin biological model simulating bollworm resistance to the Bt toxin and synthetic pyrethroids, followed by formulating profit functions for Bt and non-Bt cotton for a representative producer in each region. Profits received in subsequent periods were considered in the regulatory model in order to choose a refuge constraint (static problem) or a sequence of refuge policies (dynamic problem) for each region that maximize discounted profits received over 15 years, subject to various economic and biological constraints. Dynamic solutions for the regulatory problem were derived for each region using the Bellman equation. Results suggested that South Indian farmers do not need to grow a refuge, but farmers in the North and Central regions do. Results also suggested that planting sprayed refugia might be more profitable than planting unsprayed refugia. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the refuge requirements were sensitive to the initial Bt resistance level, relative proportion of CBWs in natural refuges, and proportions of heterozygous and homozygous fitnesses in all of the three regions. Moreover, static refugia were found more profitable as compared to dynamic refugia in the North and Central regions.Food Security and Poverty,

ESTIMATION OF EFFICIENT REGRESSION MODELS FOR APPLIED AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS RESEARCH

This paper proposes and explores the use of a partially adaptive estimation technique to improve the reliability of the inferences made from multiple regression models when the dependent variable is not normally distributed. The relevance of this technique for agricultural economics research is evaluated through Monte Carlo simulation and two mainstream applications: A time-series analysis of agricultural commodity prices and an empirical model of the West Texas cotton basis. It is concluded that, given non-normality, this technique can substantially reduce the magnitude of the standard errors of the slope parameter estimators in relation to OLS, GLS and other least squares based estimation procedures, in practice, allowing for more precise inferences about the existence, sign and magnitude of the effects of the independent variables on the dependent variable of interest. In addition, the technique produces confidence intervals for the dependent variable forecasts that are more efficient and consistent with the observed data. Key Words: Efficient regression models, partially adaptive estimation, non-normality, skewness, heteroskedasticity, autocorrelation.Efficient regression models, partially adaptive estimation, non-normality, skewness, heteroskedasticity, autocorrelation., Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Cotton Farmers' Technical Efficiency: Stochastic and Nonstochastic Production Function Approaches

Technical efficiency for cotton growers is examined using both stochastic (SFA) and nonstochastic (DEA) production function approaches. The empirical application uses farm-level data from four counties in west Texas. While efficiency scores for the individual farms differed between SFA and DEA, the mean efficiency scores are invariant of the method of estimation under the assumption of constant returns to scale. On average, irrigated farms are 80% and nonirrigated farms are 70% efficient. Findings show that in Texas, the irrigated farms, on average, could reduce their expenditures on other inputs by 10%, and the nonirrigated farms could reduce their expenditures on machinery and labor by 12% and 13%, respectively, while producing the same level of output.Crop Production/Industries, Productivity Analysis,

Texas-Oklahoma Producer Cotton Market Summary: 2003/2004

The analysis of the West Texas and East Texas/Oklahoma spot market using the Daily Price Estimation System (DPES) indicated an overall increase in quality in the 2003/04 marketing year. The results also indicated an overall price increase compared to the last four years, averaging 63.68 cents a pound. The combined total bales and total sales between the two regions were lower in 2003/04, with most of the decrease due to lower sales in West Texas. Total sales in East Texas/Oklahoma did not change much and total bales were 15 percent higher than their 2002/03 level. For the 2003/04 marketing year, the results indicated lower premiums for low leaf grade and higher premiums for higher staple length, color grade, and higher level of strength. However, premium levels for better than base quality first digit color grade appear to be minimal. Price discounts in 2003/04 for staple length, first and second digit color grade, strength, and uniformity either remained unchanged or decreased, while discounts for leaf, micronaire, and bark increased compared to the 2002/03 levels.Crop Production/Industries,

FACTORS INFLUENCING SOUTHERN DAIRY FARMERS' CHOICE OF MILK HANDLERS

Survey data of 2,538 dairy farmers located in 12 southern states were used to analyze the factors influencing farmers' choice of milk handlers. Results from a qualitative response model indicate that a combination of price and non-price factors contribute to dairy farmers' attitudes toward their milk handlers. Specifically, the decision to change milk handlers was significantly influenced by prices paid and deductions charged. However, non-price factors including field services, friendly personnel, and loyalty to a handler contributed to the longer term affiliation of dairy farmers with their milk handlers.Dairy farmers, Milk handlers, Market channels, Qualitative response, Marketing, Agribusiness,