Czy teoria pokoleń wyjaśnia naszą przyszłość?

Teoria cyklu pokoleniowego Straussa i Howe’a opisuje historię jako powtarzające się regularnie, choć w różnych wariantach, cztery fazy przebudzeń i kryzysów związanych z typami pokoleń. Przesilenia, przez które jako społeczeństwa systematycznie przechodzimy oraz odpowiadające im etapy cyklu, nazwano wzlotem, przebudzeniem, dezintegracją i kryzysem społecznym. Zgodnie z tą koncepcją od roku 2007 znajdujemy się w końcowym etapie cyklu – fazie kryzysu społecznego, który jest zawsze momentem przełomowym, z konfliktami prowadzącymi do wojen, nawet o charakterze totalnym. To czasy poważnych wstrząsów, kiedy społeczeństwo koncentruje się na reorganizacji systemów i instytucji, zmierzając do nowego porządku. Współcześnie najgroźniejsze źródła konfliktów to: kryzys demokracji liberalnej, nasilające się nierówności społeczne oraz skutki zmian klimatu, z szybko rosnącą migracją ludności na czele. Ich efektem mogą być np. zmiany terytorialne czy nowe rozwiązania polityczno-ustrojowe

ZIELONY ŁAD – W KIERUNKU ROLNICTWA EKOLOGICZNEGO CZY EKOLOGIZACJI ROLNICTWA?

The purpose of the research is to evaluate the socio-economic consequences of increasing the area of agricultural land under organic farming in Poland. Increasing the share of organic farms in agricultural land could lead to a reduced agricultural production, which would pose a threat to food security. Implementing the principles of an integrated and precise production system of a greater range comparing to organic farming could be a competitive solution that would contribute to achieving the environmental and climate protection objectives to a greater extent, while maintaining the existing production rate. The implementation of the objectives was based on a comparative method: the authors compareorganic farms in Poland and Germany with farms applying conventional agricultural production systems. The research results demonstrate that implementing the Green Deal assumptions related to reaching 25% of agricultural land under organic farming in Poland, while maintaining the existing trends, will lead to a drop in agricultural production by approximately 11%. A competitive solution is to allocate the CAP funds to support pro-environmental measures and programs in the case of all farms. Participation in such programs should be voluntary.Celem badań prezentowanych w artykule jest ocena gospodarczych i społecznych skutków zwiększenia powierzchni użytków rolnych (UR) w użytkowaniu gospodarstw ekologicznych w Polsce. Zwiększenie udziału gospodarstw ekologicznych w UR mogłoby spowodować zmniejszenie poziomu produkcji rolniczej, co zagrażałoby bezpieczeństwu żywnościowemu. Konkurencyjnym rozwiązaniem mogłoby być wdrożenie zasad integrowanego i precyzyjnego systemu produkcji o większym zasięgu niż uprawy ekologiczne, co w wyższym stopniu przyczyniłoby się do realizacji celów środowiskowych oraz ochrony klimatu przy zachowaniu dotychczasowego poziomu produkcji. W realizacji przyjętych celów zastosowano metodę porównawczą: przedmiotem szczegółowych badań są gospodarstwa ekologiczne z Polski i Niemiec przedstawione na tle gospodarstw realizujących konwencjonalne systemy produkcji rolniczej. Wyniki badań wskazują, że realizacja założeń Zielonego Ładu o zwiększeniu udziału produkcji ekologicznej do 25% powierzchni UR w Polsce przy zachowaniu dotychczasowych tendencji spowoduje spadek produkcji rolniczej o około 11%. Rozwiązaniem konkurencyjnym jest skierowanie środków WPR na wspieranie działań i programów prośrodowiskowych we wszystkich gospodarstwach. Uczestnictwo w tych programach powinno być dobrowolne

CONCENTRATION OF DAIRY COW BREEDING AND COMPETITIVENESS OF POLISH FARMS SPECIALIZED IN MILK PRODUCTION

The article presents reasons for farmers to increase concentration in dairy cow breeding. The most important concerns the decrease in the unit profitability of milk production caused by a faster growth rate of labor costs and prices of means of production purchased by farmers than the selling prices of agricultural products. The result of the trends was a decrease in the number of dairy farms and the number of cows. In 1996-2020, the number of dairy farms decreased by 85% (to 198 thousand), and the number of cows decreased by 28.7% (to 2,468 thousand units). As a result, the average size of a herd of cows increased from 2.64 in 1996 to 12.64 units in 2020. At the same time, the milk yield of cows increased by 85%. The territorial diversification of the cow population also deepened. In 2020, 69.2% of the cow population was located in the following voivodships: Mazowieckie (21.1%), Podlaskie (18.9), Wielkopolskie (13.0%), Warmińsko-Mazurskie (8.5%) and Łódzkie (7.7%). The analysis of the economic results of farms carried out in two periods 2008-2010 and 2018- 2020 showed that farms with at least 24 cows with a total milk production of 129 tons in the first period and 144 tons of milk in the second period turned out to be able to compete. Farms with 62 cows with a total production of 494 tons of milk were fully competitive in the second period

ECONOMIC SITUATION AND PRODUCTIVITY OF THE POLISH PIG HOLDINGS

The paper presents the situation of the Polish specialist pig holdings at the backdrop of similar holdings in Hungary, Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands. In order to study their development abilities, the following indices underwent a comprehensive assessment: productivity, profitability, management income, net investment rates and share of subsidies in the income of an agricultural holding. The highest productivity indices were achieved by the Dutch holdings, and profitability – the Hungarian and Polish holdings. Very large Polish agricultural holdings also produced the highest aggregated values of the cumulative rela- tive goodness index. Moreover, the paper points to the fundamental reasons behind the weakness of the Polish pig production sector, which cover low level of concentration and no linkages between the live pig producers and processing plants. It also determines how to take up and where to channel remedial actions

The Green Deal: Towards Organic Farming or Greening of Agriculture?

The purpose of the research is to evaluate the socio-economic consequences of increasing the area of agricultural land under organic farming in Poland. Increasing the share of organic farms in agricultural land could lead to a reduced agricultural production, which would pose a threat to food security. Implementing the principles of an integrated and precise production system of a greater range comparing to organic farming could be a competitive solution that would contribute to achieving the environmental and climate protection objectives to a greater extent, while maintaining the existing production rate. The implementation of the objectives was based on a comparative method: the authors compareorganic farms in Poland and Germany with farms applying conventional agricultural production systems. The research results demonstrate that implementing the Green Deal assumptions related to reaching 25% of agricultural land under organic farming in Poland, while maintaining the existing trends, will lead to a drop in agricultural production by approximately 11%. A competitive solution is to allocate the CAP funds to support pro-environmental measures and programs in the case of all farms. Participation in such programs should be voluntary

Competitive position of the Polish farms aimed at pig farming

The article presents the situation of the Polish farms specialising in pig farming in comparison with analogous ones in Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands and Spain. The assessment covered the production and economic activity of farms targeted at live pig production was assessed and determination of their effectiveness and competitiveness as well as the possibilities of their development. The analysis showed that the main factor determining the production efficiency and competitiveness of pig farms is the production scale, and among large and very large farms only Polish and Spanish farms were fully competitive. The paper also indicates the main reasons for the weakness of the Polish pig production sector, which were identified as low degree of concentration and lack of links between livestock producers and processing plants and the existence of barriers hampering investments in livestock buildings adapted to a larger scale of production. In addition, the paper formulates the methods and directions of possible corrective actions in the field

Environmental and climatic pressures as a function of farm size

The paper presents an assessment of the degree of implementation of environmental and climate protection functions by Polish farms and agricultural enterprises of different size and production scale. There are differences in views on this topic in the literature, with opinions dominating on the more positive role of small farms in climate and biodiversity protection. Farm analysis was made on the basis of Statistics Poland data on farm size classes established by agricultural land area in 2016. The results of the study did not confirm the view that the production systems implemented in small farms are more environmentally friendly and have a more positive impact on the climate than those on farms of a larger production scale. This is evidenced by the sowing structure: cereal dominated in small farms, exceeding the agronomically recommended 66%, while the share of structure-forming plants – legumes, industrial oilseed and catch crops – was low. Also, the implemented organisation of animal production (not carried out at all in more than half of the small farms) consequently leads to soil degradation due to a jeopardised balance of organic matte

CONCENTRATION OF DAIRY COW BREEDING AND COMPETITIVENESS OF POLISH FARMS SPECIALIZED IN MILK PRODUCTION

The article presents reasons for farmers to increase concentration in dairy cow breeding. The most important concerns the decrease in the unit profitability of milk production caused by a faster growth rate of labor costs and prices of means of production purchased by farmers than the selling prices of agricultural products. The result of the trends was a decrease in the number of dairy farms and the number of cows. In 1996-2020, the number of dairy farms decreased by 85% (to 198 thousand), and the number of cows decreased by 28.7% (to 2,468 thousand units). As a result, the average size of a herd of cows increased from 2.64 in 1996 to 12.64 units in 2020. At the same time, the milk yield of cows increased by 85%. The territorial diversification of the cow population also deepened. In 2020, 69.2% of the cow population was located in the following voivodships: Mazowieckie (21.1%), Podlaskie (18.9), Wielkopolskie (13.0%), Warmińsko-Mazurskie (8.5%) and Łódzkie (7.7%). The analysis of the economic results of farms carried out in two periods 2008-2010 and 2018- 2020 showed that farms with at least 24 cows with a total milk production of 129 tons in the first period and 144 tons of milk in the second period turned out to be able to compete. Farms with 62 cows with a total production of 494 tons of milk were fully competitive in the second period

Organic farming in Poland – conditions and directions of development

The development of organic farming is one of the priorities of the European Green Deal. The study presents the current status and directions of the development of organic farming in Poland. A significant problem is the difference between the growth rate of the number of farms and areas under organic crops and organic agricultural production used for food purposes. The development of organic farming was presented against the background of its development in the European Union. An intensive increase in the number and area of ​​organic farms occurred in the years 2005–2013. The second important feature was the development of this type of farm in regions (voivodeships and communes) characterized by worse natural production conditions. In addition, decisions to start organic production were made by farmers running farms not only in worse natural conditions, but also with a low level of production intensity. Significant differences were found between the share of organic crops in the area of ​​agricultural land and the share of organic production in total agricultural production, and especially its share in the balance of food products. It was also observed that the structure of crops in organic farms was favorable in terms of biodiversity and climate

Economic situation and productivity of the Polish pig holdings

The paper presents the situation of the Polish specialist pig holdings at the backdrop of similar holdings in Hungary, Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands. In order to study their development abilities, the following indices underwent a comprehensive assessment: productivity, profitability, management income, net investment rates and share of subsidies in the income of an agricultural holding. The highest productivity indices were achieved by the Dutch holdings, and profitability – the Hungarian and Polish holdings. Very large Polish agricultural holdings also produced the highest aggregated values of the cumulative relative goodness index. Moreover, the paper points to the fundamental reasons behind the weakness of the Polish pig production sector, which cover low level of concentration and no linkages between the live pig producers and processing plants. It also determines how to take up and where to channel remedial actions