An updated probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Romania and comparison with the approach and outcomes of the SHARE project

The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Romania is revisited within the framework of the BIGSEES national research project (http://infp.infp.ro/bigsees/default.htm) financed by the Romanian Ministry of Education and Scientific Research in the period 2012-2016. The scope of this project is to provide a refined description of the seismic actions for Romanian sites according to the requirements of Eurocode 8. To this aim, the seismicity of all the sources influencing the Romanian territory is updated based on new data acquired in recent years. The ground-motion models used in the analysis, as well as their corresponding weights, are selected based on the results from several recent papers also published within the framework of the BIGSEES project. The seismic hazard analysis for Romania used in this study are based on the traditional Cornell-McGuire approach. Finally, the results are discussed and compared with the values obtained in the recently-completed SHARE research project. The BIGSEES and SHARE results are not directly comparable since the considered soil conditions are different – actual soil classes for BIGSEES and rock for SHARE. Nevertheless, the analyses of the seismic hazard results for 200 sites in Romania reveal considerable differences between the seismic hazard levels obtained in the present study and the SHARE results and point out the need for further analyses and thorough discussions related to the two seismic hazard models, especially in the light of a possible future harmonized hazard map for Europe

An Updated Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Romania and Comparison with the Approach and Outcomes of the SHARE Project

The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Romania is revisited within the framework of the BIGSEES national research project (http://infp.infp.ro/bigsees/default.htm) financed by the Romanian Ministry of Education and Scientific Research in the period 2012–2016. The scope of this project is to provide a refined description of the seismic action for Romanian sites according to the requirements of Eurocode 8. To this aim, the seismicity of all the sources influencing the Romanian territory is updated based on new data acquired in recent years. The groundmotion models used in the analysis, as well as their corresponding weights, are selected based on the results from several recent papers also published within the framework of the BIGSEES project. The seismic hazard analysis for Romania performed in this study are based on the traditional Cornell-McGuire approach. Finally, the results are discussed and compared with the values obtained in the recently completed SHARE research project. The BIGSEES and SHARE results are not directly comparable since the considered soil conditions are different—actual soil classes for BIGSEES and rock for SHARE. Nevertheless, the analyses of the seismic hazard results for 200 sites in Romania reveal considerable differences between the seismic hazard levels obtained in the present study and the SHARE results and point out the need for further analyses and thorough discussions related to the two seismic hazard models, especially in the light of a possible future harmonized hazard map for Europe

Seismic Observations in Bucharest Area with a Raspberry Shake Citizen Science Network

Technological advancements and the appearance of low-cost Raspberry Shake seismographs have enabled the development of citizen science seismic networks in many areas worldwide. These networks can help reduce seismic risk and increase citizens’ understanding of seismology and earthquakes. Such a network exists in Bucharest, one of the cities in Europe that are struck and affected by strong Vrancea earthquakes. The paper aims to show that data from such networks can be used in both outreach programs and research studies. There are presented, for the first time, seismic observations collected over two years beginning in the summer of 2020 in the Bucharest area based on the low-cost seismometers from the citizen science Raspberry Shake network. A significant number of earthquakes from the Vrancea region were recorded by the Bucharest Raspberry Shake Seismic Network (BRSSN). Some of them were felt by Bucharest inhabitants. The National Institute for Earth Physics in Magurele (Romania) organizes educational events that promote geosciences among the population and presents the tools at its disposal for a better understanding of earthquakes and their effects, contributing this way to the development of the concept of citizen science. Citizens are the first witnesses to seismic events and the citizen science seismic network provides them with the first direct information about the event via web apps available for any internet-connected device. Their involvement as non-professional participants helps in providing data for scientists via questionnaire forms to improve scientific research for earthquake assessment. Since citizen seismometers are installed in urban areas, an analysis of the ambient seismic noise (ASN) was performed in addition to the analysis of recorded seismic events. The analysis indicates that the level of seismic noise is mainly controlled by human activities. At the same time, for one citizen seismometer installed in a school in Bucharest, the results show patterns of noise variations due to students’ activity

Earthquake mechanism and characterization of seismogenic zones in south-eastern part of Romania

Earthquake mechanism information is fundamental to determine the stress field and to define seismogenic zones. At the same time, it is a basic input to compute seismic hazard by deterministic approach. The present paper extends the catalogue of the fault plane solutions for the earthquakes in Romania, previously completed until 1997, for 1998 – 2012 time interval. The catalogue is limited geographically to the Carpathians Orogeny and extra-Carpathians area located in the south-eastern part of Romania because similar investigations cover the rest of the country. The catalogue comprises 259 intermediate-depth seismic events and 90 crustal seismic events, recorded in the considered time interval with acceptably constrained fault plane solutions. We use specific graphical tools in order to emphasize statistically representative features of the stress field as coming out from our results. The fault plane solutions of the Vrancea earthquakes generated in a confined sinking plate in the mantle reflect the dominant geodynamic process in the study region. The typical features revealed by all the previous studies on the subcrustal seismic activity (predominant dip-slip, reverse faulting, characterizing both the weak and strong earthquakes) are reproduced as well by our investigation. As concerns the earthquake activity in the crust, a few new refined aspects are highlighted in the present work:  (1) a deficit of the strike-slip component over the entire Carpathians foredeep area, (2) different stress field pattern in the Făgăraş – Câmpulung zone as compared with the Moesian Platform and Pre-Dobrogean and Bârlad Depressions, (3) a larger range for the dip angle of the nodal planes in the Vrancea subcrustal source, ~ 400 -700 against ~ 700, as commonly considered

Exploring the Relationship between Geomagnetic Variations and Seismic Energy Release in Proximity to the Vrancea Seismic Zone

Understanding the seismo–ionospheric coupling mechanism requires a quiet geomagnetic condition, as this represents an ideal situation to detect abnormal variations in the geomagnetic field. In reality, continuous interactions between solar wind and Earth’s magnetosphere create many fluctuations in the geomagnetic field that are more related to sun–magnetosphere interactions than to seismotectonic causes. A triaxial magnetometer was installed at the Muntele Rosu Observatory near the Vrancea seismic zone in 1996 to measure the local magnetic field. Since 2002, the data have become more consistent, allowing for the representation of long time series. Since then, variations have been observed on the eastern component (By) of the magnetic field, which sometimes overlaps with significant earthquakes. Previous studies have shown that high decreases in amplitude recorded on the By component of the magnetic field measured at Muntele Rosu have been accompanied by higher seismicity, while small decreases have been accompanied by lower seismic energy release. This research analyzes the geomagnetic data collected between September 2002 and May 2008 from two geomagnetic observatories, one located in the proximity of the Vrancea seismic zone and another one situated 120 km away. For each geomagnetic anomaly identified, the daily seismic energy released was plotted logarithmically, along with seismicity and Kp indices. Additionally, the daily seismic energy released was also plotted logarithmically for all earthquakes with Mw ≥3. To identify variations in the By component, datasets recorded at Muntele Rosu (MLR) were compared with those recorded at Surlari National Geomagnetic Observatory (SUA), to discriminate between global magnetic variations associated with solar activity and possible seismo–electromagnetic variations. The standard deviation (SDBy) was calculated for each anomaly recorded on the By component of the magnetic field and compared with the cumulative seismic energy release. To determine if this type of variation was present in other components of the magnetic field, the following ratios were calculated for all data recorded at Muntele Rosu: Bz/Bx, Bz/By, and Bz/BH. The size of the anomalies resulting from the standard deviation measured on the By component (SDBy) partially validates the relationship between the size of the anomalies and the seismic energy release during the anomaly. The relationship between the released seismic energy and the anomaly magnitude is vaguely respected, but these variations seem to follow two patterns. One pattern is described by smooth decreases, and the other pattern involves decreases where the By component varies significantly over short periods, generating decreases/increases in steps. It was noticed that seismic activity is greater for the second pattern. Additionally, using standard deviation measured on the magnetic field represents a great tool to discriminate external magnetic field variations from local, possibly seismo–magnetic variations

Tectonic regimes and stress patterns in the Vrancea Seismic Zone: Insights into intermediate-depth earthquake nests in locked collisional settings

Earthquake nests are anomalous clusters of seismicity located far from active collisional systems in intraplate, locked suture zones, or the deep part of relic subducted slabs, challenging classic earthquake generation mechanism theories. The Vrancea Seismic Zone in Romania is such an upper-mantle seismic nest located in the SE Carpathians, releasing the largest strain in continental Europe. To better understand earthquake generation and the relationship with lithospheric deformation, we estimate earthquake source parameters in Vrancea and surrounding regions between 2014 and 2020, and determine the stress field via focal mechanism inversion and unsupervised machine learning. In the crustal domain, maximum horizontal stress is in agreement with surface fault kinematics and GPS-derived S-SE trending horizontal plate velocities relative to Eurasia, implying that tectonic stress is vertically coherent on a crustal scale. The stress regime changes from transpression beneath the orogen to transtension towards the foreland where movement is accommodated along major crustal faults, and tension further away from the epicentre, in the Moesian Platform and the North Dobrogea Orogen. Inside the seismogenic body vertical tension and an overall compressive regime dominates, implying that vertical elongation may be the driving mechanism for brittle failure and that stress is transmitted along the sinking slab to the surface. However, the retrieved stress ratios are low: ~0.2 for mantle earthquakes Mw>4 and ~0.4 for M

Macroseismic intensity investigation of the November 2014, M=5.7, Vrancea (Romania) crustal earthquake

On November 22, 2014 at 21:14:17 local hour (19:14:17 GMT) a  ML=5.7 crustal earthquake occurred in the area of Marasesti city of Vrancea county (Romania) - the epicenter was located at north latitude 45.87° and east longitude 27.16°, with a focal depth of 39 km. This earthquake is the main shock of a sequence that started with this and lasted until the end of January. During the sequence, characterized by the absence of foreshocks, a number of 75 earthquakes were recorded in 72 hours, the largest of which occurred in the same day with the main shock, at 22:30 (ML= 3.1). The crustal seismicity of Vrancea seismogenic region is characterized by moderate earthquakes with magnitudes that have not exceeded MW 5.9, this value being assigned to an earthquake that occurred in historical times on March 1, 1894 (Romplus catalogue). Immediately after the 2014 earthquake occurrence, the National Institute for Earth Physics (NIEP) sent macroseismic questionnaires in all affected areas, in order to define the macroseismic field of ground shaking. According to macroseismic questionnaires survey, the intensity of epicentral area reached VI MSK, and the seismic event was felt in all the extra-Carpathian area. This earthquake caused general panic and minor to moderate damage to the buildings in the epicentral area and the northeast part of country. The main purpose of this paper is to present the macroseismic map of the earthquake based on the MSK-64 intensity scale

Tectonic regimes and stress patterns in the Vrancea Seismic Zone: Insights into intermediate-depth earthquake nests in locked collisional settings

Earthquake nests are anomalous clusters of seismicity located far from active collisional systems in intraplate, locked suture zones, or the deep part of relic subducted slabs, challenging classic earthquake generation mechanism theories. The Vrancea Seismic Zone in Romania is such an upper-mantle seismic nest located in the SE Carpathians, releasing the largest strain in continental Europe. To better understand earthquake generation and the relationship with lithospheric deformation, we estimate earthquake source parameters in Vrancea and surrounding regions between 2014 and 2020, and determine the stress field via focal mechanism inversion and unsupervised machine learning. In the crustal domain, maximum horizontal stress is in agreement with surface fault kinematics and GPS-derived S-SE trending horizontal plate velocities relative to Eurasia, implying that tectonic stress is vertically coherent on a crustal scale. The stress regime changes from transpression beneath the orogen to transtension towards the foreland where movement is accommodated along major crustal faults, and tension further away from the epicentre, in the Moesian Platform and the North Dobrogea Orogen. Inside the seismogenic body vertical tension and an overall compressive regime dominates, implying that vertical elongation may be the driving mechanism for brittle failure and that stress is transmitted along the sinking slab to the surface. However, the retrieved stress ratios are low: ~0.2 for mantle earthquakes Mw>4 and ~0.4 for M