Edge-Based Compartmental Modeling for Infectious Disease Spread Part III: Disease and Population Structure

We consider the edge-based compartmental models for infectious disease spread introduced in Part I. These models allow us to consider standard SIR diseases spreading in random populations. In this paper we show how to handle deviations of the disease or population from the simplistic assumptions of Part I. We allow the population to have structure due to effects such as demographic detail or multiple types of risk behavior the disease to have more complicated natural history. We introduce these modifications in the static network context, though it is straightforward to incorporate them into dynamic networks. We also consider serosorting, which requires using the dynamic network models. The basic methods we use to derive these generalizations are widely applicable, and so it is straightforward to introduce many other generalizations not considered here

Investigating the Effects of Sex and Carvedilol on Ischemia Preconditioning Protective Effect

Many studies have been done on ischemic preconditioning and its protective effects using the murine model with overwhelmingly consistent and promising results. However, many clinical trials have failed to demonstrate the protective effects of ischemic preconditioning. The causes of the inconsistency are unknown. The effect of sex on ischemic preconditioning protection is largely unclear, which may be a contributing factor. Additionally, in clinical trials, the recruited patients were most likely taking some medications. This project aimed to test the differences in sex on preconditioning protection and the effect of a common β-blocker medication, Carvedilol, on preconditioning protection. Tourniquet-induced unilateral hindlimb ischemia-reperfusion in mice was used as the model. Blood flow in hindlimb paws was measured. Related cytokines were examined using Western blots, including pro-inflammatory IL-6, MCP-1, and TNFα. Additionally, both the non-canonical and canonical NF-κB pathways were investigated using Western blots. Using immunofluorescence staining, monocyte marker CD11b, pro-inflammatory macrophage marker CD68, and anti-inflammatory macrophage marker CD206 were assessed. Overall, there were differences after hindlimb reperfusion in males and females. The macrophage markers were the most notably different between the preconditioning group and the Carvedilol + preconditioning group, making this an exciting topic for further study

Burkitt non-Hodgkin lymphoma presenting with mental neuropathy ('numb chin' syndrome) in an HIV-positive patient

Mental nerve neuropathy is usually due to local trauma or dental causes, but may be a manifestation of malignancy. A patient with virologically controlled human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection presented with a 'numb chin' on the background of long-standing night sweats, malaise and weight loss, worsening respiratory symptoms, and lymphadenopathy. Burkitt non-Hodgkin lymphoma was diagnosed from histology of a lymph node. Imaging (magnetic resonance imaging and18fluorodeoxyglucose [FDG]-positron emission tomography-computed tomography [PET-CT]) showed abnormal intracranial enhancement of the right mandibular nerve and extensive18FDG-avid lymphadenopathy above and below the diaphragm, focal lesions in the spleen and within the right mandible. The patient received chemotherapy and remains in clinical and radiological remission seven years later. This case highlights the need for clinicians to maintain a high index of suspicion for underlying malignancy when an HIV-infected patient presents with new onset of a 'numb chin'. Additionally, it demonstrates the importance of functional18FDG-PET-CT and neuroimaging in order to identify site(s) of pathology

Sticky central limit theorems at isolated hyperbolic planar singularities

© 2015, University of Washington. Akll rights reserved.We derive the limiting distribution of the barycenter bn of an i.i.d. sample of n random points on a planar cone with angular spread larger than 2π. There are three mutually exclusive possibilities: (i) (fully sticky case) after a finite random time the barycenter is almost surely at the origin; (ii) (partly sticky case) the limiting distribution of √nb<inf>n</inf> comprises a point mass at the origin, an open sector of a Gaussian, and the projection of a Gaussian to the sector’s bounding rays; or (iii) (nonsticky case) the barycenter stays away from the origin and the renormalized fluctuations have a fully supported limit distribution—usually Gaussian but not always. We conclude with an alternative, topological definition of stickiness that generalizes readily to measures on general metric spaces

Dietary glycaemic index and glycaemic load among Australian adults – results from the 2011–2012 Australian Health Survey

published_or_final_versio

A three dimensional model of the photosynthetic membranes of Ectothiorhodospira halochloris

The three dimensional organization of the complete photosynthetic apparatus of the extremely halophilic, bacteriochlorophyll b containing Ectothiorhodospira halochloris has been elaborated by several techniques of electron microscopy. Essentially all thylakoidal sacs are disc shaped and connected to the cytoplasmic membrane by small membraneous ldquobridgesrdquo. In sum, the lumina of all thylakoids (intrathylakoidal space) form one common periplasmic space. Thin sections confirm a paracrystalline arrangement of the photosynthetic complexes in situ. The ontogenic development of the photosynthetic apparatus is discussed based on a structural model derived from serial thin sections

A monotonic relationship between the variability of the infectious period and final size in pairwise epidemic modelling

For a recently derived pairwise model of network epidemics with non-Markovian recovery, we prove that under some mild technical conditions on the distribution of the infectious periods, smaller variance in the recovery time leads to higher reproduction number, and consequently to a larger epidemic outbreak, when the mean infectious period is fixed. We discuss how this result is related to various stochastic orderings of the distributions of infectious periods. The results are illustrated by a number of explicit stochastic simulations, suggesting that their validity goes beyond regular networks

A systematic review and meta-analysis of energy intake and weight gain in pregnancy

BACKGROUND: Gestational weight gain within the recommended range produces optimal pregnancy outcomes, yet many women exceed the guidelines. Official recommendations to increase energy intake by ∼ 1000 kJ/day in pregnancy may be excessive. OBJECTIVE: To determine by metaanalysis of relevant studies whether greater increments in energy intake from early to late pregnancy corresponded to greater or excessive gestational weight gain. DATA SOURCES: We systematically searched electronic databases for observational and intervention studies published from 1990 to the present. The databases included Ovid Medline, Cochrane Library, Excerpta Medica DataBASE (EMBASE), Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), and Science Direct. In addition we hand-searched reference lists of all identified articles. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Studies were included if they reported gestational weight gain and energy intake in early and late gestation in women of any age with a singleton pregnancy. Search also encompassed journals emerging from both developed and developing countries. STUDY APPRAISAL AND SYNTHESIS METHODS: Studies were individually assessed for quality based on the Quality Criteria Checklist obtained from the Evidence Analysis Manual: Steps in the academy evidence analysis process. Publication bias was plotted by the use of a funnel plot with standard mean difference against standard error. Identified studies were meta-analyzed and stratified by body mass index, study design, dietary methodology, and country status (developed/developing) by the use of a random-effects model. RESULTS: Of 2487 articles screened, 18 studies met inclusion criteria. On average, women gained 12.0 (2.8) kg (standardized mean difference = 1.306, P < .0005) yet reported only a small increment in energy intake that did not reach statistical significance (∼475 kJ/day, standard mean difference = 0.266, P = .016). Irrespective of baseline body mass index, study design, dietary methodology, or country status, changes in energy intake were not significantly correlated to the amount of gestational weight gain (r = 0.321, P = .11). CONCLUSION: Despite rapid physiologic weight gain, women report little or no change in energy intake during pregnancy. Current recommendations to increase energy intake by ∼ 1000 kJ/day may, therefore, encourage excessive weight gain and adverse pregnancy outcomes.postprin

Beyond clustering: mean-field dynamics on networks with arbitrary subgraph composition

Clustering is the propensity of nodes that share a common neighbour to be connected. It is ubiquitous in many networks but poses many modelling challenges. Clustering typically manifests itself by a higher than expected frequency of triangles, and this has led to the principle of constructing networks from such building blocks. This approach has been generalised to networks being constructed from a set of more exotic subgraphs. As long as these are fully connected, it is then possible to derive mean-field models that approximate epidemic dynamics well. However, there are virtually no results for non-fully connected subgraphs. In this paper, we provide a general and automated approach to deriving a set of ordinary differential equations, or mean-field model, that describes, to a high degree of accuracy, the expected values of system-level quantities, such as the prevalence of infection. Our approach offers a previously unattainable degree of control over the arrangement of subgraphs and network characteristics such as classical node degree, variance and clustering. The combination of these features makes it possible to generate families of networks with different subgraph compositions while keeping classical network metrics constant. Using our approach, we show that higher-order structure realised either through the introduction of loops of different sizes or by generating networks based on different subgraphs but with identical degree distribution and clustering, leads to non-negligible differences in epidemic dynamics