Financial Globalization and Exchange Rates

The founders of the Bretton Woods System sixty years ago were primarily concerned with orderly exchange rateadjustment in a world economy that was characterized by widespread restrictions on international capitalmobility. In contrast, the rapid pace of financial globalization during recent years poses new challenges for theinternational monetary system. In particular, large gross cross-holdings of foreign assets and liabilities meansthat the valuation channel of exchange rate adjustment has grown in importance, relative to the traditional tradebalance channel. Accordingly, this paper empirically explores some of the inter-connections between financialglobalization and exchange rate adjustment and discusses the policy implications.Financial integration, capital flows, external assets and liabilities

Long-Term Capital Movements

International financial integration allows countries to become net creditors or net debtors with respect to the rest of the world. In this paper, we show that a small set of fundamentals--shifts in relative output levels, the stock of public debt and demographic factors--can do much to explain the evolution of net foreign asset positions. In addition, we highlight that external wealth' plays a critical role in determining the behavior of the trade balance, both through shifts in the desired net foreign asset position and the investment returns generated on the outstanding stock of net foreign assets. Finally, we provide some evidence that a portfolio balance effect exists: real interest rate differentials are inversely related to net foreign asset positions.

Optimal Taxation of Human and Physical Capital in Endogenous Capital Models

This paper studies the effects of human and physical capital income taxation on growth, and examines how these effects depend on the technologies for human capital accumulation and 'leisure'. It then derives the normative implications of the analysis for the optimal taxation of factor incomes. It is shown that in general both capital and labor (human capital) taxes are growth-reducing. In these cases, the optimal long-run tax on both capital and labor income is zero. The optimal taxation plan consists of taxing both factors in the short run, and financing spending in the long run through accumulated budget surpluses.

Taxation and Endogenous Growth in Open Economies

This paper examines the effects of taxation of human capital, physical capital and foreign assets in a multi-sector model of endogenous growth. It is shown that in general the growth rate is reduced by taxes on capital and labor (human capital) income. When the government faces no borrowing constraints and is able to commit to a given set of present and future taxes, it is shown that the optimal tax plan involves high taxation of both capital and labor in the short run. This allows the government to accumulate sufficient assets to finance spending without any recourse to distortionary taxation in the long run. When restrictions to government borrowing and lending are imposed, the model implies that human and physical capital should be taxed similarly.

The International Equity Holdings of Euro Area Investors

We provide a systematic analysis of bilateral, source and host factors driving portfolio equity investment by euro-area countries, using newly-released data on international equity holdings at the end of 2001. We find that bilateral equity holdings are strongly linked to bilateral trade in goods and services and are also associated with proxies for informational proximity. We further document that there exists a significant “euro-area bias”, with euro-area countries investing in other euro-area countries over and above the amount predicted by underlying fundamentals.International portfolio equity investment, international trade; gravity.

Cross-Border Investment in Small International Financial Centers

We document and assess the role of small financial centers in the international financial system using a newly-assembled dataset. We present estimates of the foreign asset and liability positions for a number of the most important small financial centers, and place these into context by calculating the importance of these locations in the global aggregate of cross- border investment positions. We also report data on bilateral cross-border investment patterns, highlighting which countries engage in financial trade with small financial centers.Financial centers, international investment position, capital flows.

External Adjustment and the Global Crisis

The period preceding the global financial crisis was characterized by a substantial widening of current account imbalances across the world. Since the onset of the crisis, these imbalances have contracted to a significant extent. In this paper, we analyze the ongoing process of external adjustment in advanced economies and emerging markets. We find that countries whose precrisiscurrent account balances were in excess of what could be explained by standard economic fundamentals have experienced the largest contractions in their external balance. We subsequently examine the contributions of real exchange rates, domestic demand and domestic output to the adjustment process (allowing for differences across exchange rate regimes) and find that external adjustment in deficit countries was achieved primarily through demand compression, rather than expenditure switching. Finally, we show that other investment flows was the main adjustment category in the financial account but that ECB liquidity and official external assistance have cushioned the exit of private capital flows for some countries.global crisis, current account adjustment.

A Global Perspective on External Positions

The paper highlights the increased dispersion in net external positions in recent years, particularly among industrial countries. It provides a simple accounting framework that disentangles the factors driving the accumulation of external assets and liabilities (such as trade imbalances, investment income flows, and capital gains) for major external creditors and debtors. It also examines the factors driving the foreign asset portfolio of international investors, with a special focus on the weight of U.S. liabilities in the rest of the world’s stock of external assets. Finally, it relates the empirical evidence to the current debate about the roles of portfolio balance effects and exchange rate adjustment in shaping the external adjustment process.