Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large

The theory of precautionary saving is shown in this paper to be isomorphic to the Arrow-Pratt theory of risk aversion, making possible the application of a large body of knowledge about risk aversion to precautionary saving, and more generally, to the theory of optimal choice under risk. In particular, a measure of the strength of precautionary saving motive analogous to the Arrow-Pratt measure of risk aversion is used to establish a number of new propositions about precautionary saving, and to give a new interpretation of the Oreze-Modigliani substitution effect.

Labor Market Dynamics When Unemployment Is A Worker Discipline Device

Efficiency wage models of the effort elicitation type have important implications for labor market dynamics. These models have a wide array of discontinuous sunspot equilibria driven by extraneous variables, in addition to well-behaved equilibria characterized by continuous, slowly adjusting patterns of employment. Many aspects of actual labor markets can be replicated by these models. For example, the longer-run movements they predict in employment allow macroeconomic evidence for a large labor supply elasticity to be reconciled with panel data evidence for a small labor supply elasticity. Many testable, but as yet untested predictions about labor market dynamics can also be generated.

Precautionary saving and precautionary wealth

This is an entry for The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd Ed. JEL Klassifikation: C61, D11, E2

Precautionary Saving and the Timing of Taxes

This paper analyzes the effects of government debt and income taxes on consumption and saving in a world of infinitely-lived households having uncertain and heterogeneous incomes. The special structure of the model allows exact aggregation across households despite incomplete markets. The effects of government debt are shown to be substantial, roughly comparable to those resulting from finite horizons, and crucially dependent on the length of time until the debt is repaid. Also, anticipated changes in taxes are shown to cause anticipated changes in consumption. Finally, an index of fiscal stance is derived.

Social Security, Retirement and Wealth: Theory and Implications

The effect of Social Security rules on the age people choose to retire can be critical in evaluating proposed changes to those rules. This research derives a theory of retirement that views retirement as a special type of labor supply decision. This decision is driven by wealth and substitution effects on labor supply, interacting with a fixed cost of working that makes low hours of work unattractive. The theory is tractable analytically, and therefore well-suited for analyzing proposals that affect Social Security. This research examines how retirement age varies with generosity of Social Security benefits. A ten-percent reduction in the value of benefits would lead individuals to postpone retirement by between one-tenth and one-half a year. Individuals who are relatively buffered from the change—because they are wealthier or because they are younger and therefore can more easily increase saving to offset the cut in benefits— will have smaller changes in their retirement ages. Authors’ Acknowledgements This work was supported by a grant from the Social Security Administration through the Michigan Retirement Research Center (Grant #10-P-98358-5). The opinions and conclusions are solely those of the authors and should not be considered as representing the opinions or policy of the Social Security Administration or any agency of the Federal Government. The authors gratefully acknowledge this support.

Liquidity Constraints and Precautionary Saving

Economists working with numerical solutions to the optimal consumption/saving problem under uncertainty have long known that there are quantitatively important interactions between liquidity constraints and precautionary saving behavior. This paper provides the analytical basis for those interactions. First, we explain why the introduction of a liquidity constraint increases the precautionary saving motive around levels of wealth where the constraint becomes binding. Second, we provide a rigorous basis for the oft-noted similarity between the effects of introducing uncertainty and introducing constraints, by showing that in both cases the effects spring from the concavity in the consumption function which either uncertainty or constraints can induce. We further show that consumption function concavity, once created, propagates back to consumption functions in prior periods. Finally, our most surprising result is that the introduction of additional constraints beyond the first one, or the introduction of additional risks beyond a first risk, can actually reduce the precautionary saving motive, because the new constraint or risk can hide' the effects of the preexisting constraints or risks.

The Quantitative Analytics of the Basic Neomonetarist Model

This paper constructs a dynamic macroeconomic model with less- than-perfect price flexibility which has a real side consistent with Real Business Cycle Theory, augmented by investment adjustment costs, increasing returns to scale, and a new, flexible formalization of imperfect competition. A new mode of approximation is developedþuseful for any model in which one state variable adjusts quickly, while another state variable adjusts slowly. Even with investment adjustment costs, monetary expansions are found to raise the real interest rate. The determinants of real rigidity and the macroeconomic rate of price adjustment are investigated.

Toward a Systematic Approach to the Economic Effects of Risk: Characterizing Utility Functions"

The Diffidence Theorem, together with complementary tools, can aid in illuminating a broad set of questions about how to mathematically characterize the set of utility functions with specified economic properties. This paper establishes the technique and illustrates its application to many questions, old and new. For example, among many other older and other technically more difficult results, it is shown that (1) several implications of globally greater risk aversion depend on distinct mathematical properties when the initial wealth level is known, (2) whether opening up a new asset market increases or decreases saving depends on whether the reciprocal of marginal utility is concave or convex, and (3) whether opening up a new asset market raises or lowers risk aversion towards small independent risks depends on whether absolute risk aversion is convex or concave

Imputing Risk Tolerance from Survey Responses

Economic theory assigns a central role to risk preferences. This paper develops a measure of relative risk tolerance using responses to hypothetical income gambles in the Health and Retirement Study. In contrast to most survey measures that produce an ordinal metric, this paper shows how to construct a cardinal proxy for the risk tolerance of each survey respondent. The paper also shows how to account for measurement error in estimating this proxy and how to obtain consistent regression estimates despite the measurement error. The risk tolerance proxy is shown to explain differences in asset allocation across households.

Precautionary Saving and the Timing of Taxes

This paper analyzes the effects of government debt and income taxes on consumption and saving in a world of infinitely lived house- holds having uncertain and heterogeneous incomes. The special structure of the model allows exact aggregation across households despite incomplete markets. The effects of government debt are shown to be substantial, roughly comparable to those resulting from finite horizons, and crucially dependent on the length of time until the debt is repaid. Also, anticipated changes in taxes are shown to cause anticipated changes in consumption. Finally, an index of fiscal stance is derived.Economic