Short-term returns and the predictability of Finnish stock returns

The predictability of Finnish stock returns is studied using the framework of Ferson and Harvey (1993). We use a conditional asset pricing model where risk premia and risk sensitivities are conditioned on a range of financial information variables. In particular, we study the effect of the return interval on the predictability of short-term stock returns. Using daily, weekly, and monthly Finnish size and industry-sorted portfolio returns, we find that the predictability of returns increases with the length of return interval, but so does the power of the conditional pricing model to explain the predictability. Consistent with earlier results, we report that the time variation in risk premium accounts for most of the predictability. However, the results show also there is a sizable positive interaction between beta and risk premium which seems to increase for smaller companies.asset pricing; predictability; return interval; time aggregation

History of finance research and education in Finland: The first thirty years

This paper reviews the first thirty years of finance research and education in Finland, starting with publication of the first dissertation in finance in 1977. That was also the year when the first department of finance was established in Finland – among the first in the Nordic countries. This review shows how Finnish financial education and research developed from a humble beginning to a level that brought international acclaim. This can be largely attributed to a number of talented and hard-working individuals but also to the decision for collaboration among the Finnish universities, as a means to overcome some of the problems of a small country.financial education; research; graduate school; Finland; history; professors; dissertation

Global and Local Sources of Risk in Eastern European Emerging Stock Markets

We study a pricing model for global and local sources of risk in six Eastern European emerging stock markets. Utilizing GMM estimation and an unconditional asset-pricing framework with and without time-varying betas, we perform estimations based on monthly data from 1996 to 2007 for Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Bulgaria, Slovenia, and Russia. Most of these markets display considerable segmentation; the aggregate emerging market risk, as opposed to global market risk, is the significant driver for their stock market returns. It also appears that currency risk is priced into stock prices. The difference between local and global interest rates can be used to model the time-variation in the betas for both sources of risk.market integration, segmentation, asset pricing, emerging markets, Eastern Europe country risk

Global and local sources of risk in Eastern European emerging stock markets

We study a pricing model for global and local sources of risk in six Eastern European emerging stock markets. Utilizing GMM estimation and an unconditional asset-pricing framework with and without time-varying betas, we perform estimations based on monthly data from 1996 to 2007 for Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Bulgaria, Slovenia and Russia. Most of these markets display considerable segmentation; the aggregate emerging market risk, as opposed to global market risk, is the significant driver for their stock market returns. It also appears that currency risk is priced into stock prices. The difference between local and global interest rates can be used to model the time-variation in the betas for both sources of risk.market integration; segmentation; asset pricing; emerging markets; Eastern Europe country risk

A new value-weighted total return index for the Finnish stock market

This paper presents a new monthly value-weighted, all-share total return index for the Finnish stock market. The index covers the period from the establishment of the Helsinki Stock Exchange in October 1912 to the beginning of 1970, after which the WI index by Berglund et al (1983) and later in December 1990, the Exchange’s own HEX index are available. When combined, these can be used to study the development of the Finnish equity market without a break from the beginning of the stock market until the present day. We also provide a detailed description of the construction methodology and a comparison between our index and those available earlier. The new index replaces the Unitas price index, which has been the only index available for long-term studies from 1928 onwards. The new index also provides an alternative to the book equity weighted Poutvaara (1996) price index for the period 1912–1929.stock market index; Finland; Helsinki Stock Exchange; Nasdaq OMX; OMXH; Unitas

Descriptive analysis of Finnish equity, bond and money market returns

This paper gathers the longest available historical monthly return series for the Finnish equity, bond and money markets as well as inflation. The series are analysed to calculate the statistical characteristics of the returns investors would have received in these markets. We also survey existing literature concerning the history of these markets and review the main developments to facilitate future research on the long-term development of the Finnish markets. Using a new total return stock market index for Finland in an approach similar to Mehra and Prescott (2003), we find the equity premium for Finland to be 10.14 per cent from 1913 to 2009.equity market; bond market; money market; risk premium; Finland; Helsinki Stock Exchange; performance

Pricing currency risk in the stock market: Empirical evidence from Finland and Sweden 1970-2009

We investigate the role of currency risk on stock markets in two interlinked Nordic countries exhibiting a gradual move from fixed to floating exchange rates. We apply the Ding and Engle (2001) covariance stationary specification in a multivariate GARCH-M setup to test a conditional international asset pricing model. Using a sample period from 1970 to 2009, we find that the currency risk is priced in both stock markets as well as the price to be lower after the flotation of the currencies. We also find the cross-country exchange rate shock from Finland to affect the price of currency risk in Sweden, but not vice versa. Finally, we discuss some of the potential issues in applying multivariate GARCH-M specifications in tests of asset pricing models.conditional, international asset pricing model, currency risk, devaluation, multivariate GARCH-M, Finland, Sweden

Short-term returns and the predictability of Finnish stock returns

The predictability of Finnish stock returns is studied using the framework of Ferson and Harvey (1993). We use a conditional asset pricing model where risk premia and risk sensitivities are conditioned on a range of financial information variables. In particular, we study the effect of the return interval on the predictability of short-term stock returns. Using daily, weekly, and monthly Finnish size and industry-sorted portfolio returns, we find that the predictability of returns increases with the length of return interval, but so does the power of the conditional pricing model to explain the predictability. Consistent with earlier results, we report that the time variation in risk premium accounts for most of the predictability. However, the results show also there is a sizable positive interaction between beta and risk premium which seems to increase for smaller companies

Portfolio Construction for Tests of Asset Pricing Models

Portfolios are commonly used in finance literature to study asset-pricing models. In business practice portfolios are used to detect abnormal performance in certain asset groups or to construct reference assets. However, analyses on practical issues related to portfolio construction are surprisingly few. This paper presents and discusses issues related to portfolio return calculation from theoretical and practical perspectives. Special attention is given both to smaller and emerging stock markets. These stock markets often share common features like low liquidity, multiple stock series, and changes in foreign ownership restrictions that greatly affect portfolio construction