Cohabitation and Family Formation in Japan

This paper documents the prevalence, duration, and marital outcomes of cohabiting unions in Japan. It then examines the correlates of cohabitation experiences and describes differences in the family formation trajectories of women who have and have not cohabited. Cohabitation has increased rapidly among recent cohorts of women and cohabiting unions in Japan tend to be relatively short and almost as likely to dissolve as to result in marriage. Life table analyses demonstrate that the cumulative probabilities of marriage and parenthood are roughly similar for women who did and did not cohabit. The most notable difference is in the pathways to family formation, with women who cohabited more likely to both marry subsequent to pregnancy and delay childbearing within marriage. Taken as a whole, these results suggest that cohabiting unions in Japan are best viewed as an emerging stage in the marriage process rather than as an alternative to marriage or singlehood. We conclude with speculation about the likelihood of further increases in cohabitation in Japan and the potential implications for marriage and fertility.

Marital Dissolution in Japan

Very little is known about recent trends in divorce in Japan. In this paper, we use Japanese vital statistics and census data to describe trends in the experience of marital dissolution across the life course, and to examine change over time in educational differentials in divorce. Cumulative probabilities of marital dissolution have increased rapidly across successive marriage cohorts over the past twenty years, and synthetic period estimates suggest that roughly one-third of Japanese marriages are now likely to end in divorce. Estimates of educational differentials also indicate a rapid increase in the extent to which divorce is concentrated at lower levels of education. While educational differentials were negligible in 1980, by 2000, women who had not gone beyond high school were far more likely to be divorced than those with more education.divorce, education, educational differentials, Japan, marital dissolution, marriage, marriage cohorts, synthetic cohort estimates

An alternative version of the second demographic transition? Changing pathways to first marriage in Japan:

BACKGROUND: Growth in cohabiting unions and non-marital childbearing sits at the core of research on the second demographic transition and related discussions of family bifurcation and children's diverging destinies. OBJECTIVE: How should we think about these two highly influential and purportedly universal depictions of family change in low-fertility countries where the link between marriage and childbearing remains strong? Using data from large national surveys in Japan, we address this question by describing growing heterogeneity in pathways to first marriage, with a focus on the temporal ordering of cohabitation, pregnancy, engagement, initiation of living together as married, and registration of marriage. RESULTS: Our descriptive analyses demonstrate a substantial increase across marriage cohorts in variation in pathways to family formation in Japan, primarily reflecting growth in premarital cohabitation. Among women in the 2010-2015 marriage cohort, 39% cohabited with their husband prior to marriage. Educational differences in cohabitation experience are small, but cohabitation is more likely to be associated with premarital pregnancy for women with lower levels of educational attainment. CONTRIBUTION: Our descriptive summary of trends and differences in pathways to first marriage provides not only a needed update on changing pathways to family formation in Japan, but also a valuable empirical basis for contextual modification or adaptation of two of the most influential theoretical frameworks for understanding family change in low-fertility societies

Bridal Pregnancy and Spouse Pairing Patterns in Japan

Very low levels of nonmarital childbearing in Japan obscure important changes in the relationship between marriage and fertility. In this paper, we first describe trends in marriages preceded by pregnancy (bridal pregnancy) and examine educational differentials in this pattern of family formation. We then evaluate the extent to which bridal pregnancy is associated with less desirable spouse pairings. Using data on over 26,500 marriages between 1970 and 2002, we estimate multinomial logistic regression models to evaluate change over time in the association between bridal pregnancy and the relative odds of marrying up, down, or homogamously with respect to educational attainment. Results indicate that, for women with at least a high school education, bridal pregnancy is associated with a significantly higher likelihood of a “less desirable ” pairing and that this relationship has become more pronounced over time. This is particularly true for marriages taking place in the 1990s and for marriages involving relatively young brides. We conclude by discussing potential implications of increasing bridal pregnancy and associated patterns of spouse pairing for subsequent variation in marital stability and well-being

Boom and Bust in Marriages Between Coworkers and the Marriage Decline in Japan

In this article, we focus on how the trend in meeting opportunities between men and women, especially at work or through jobs, is related to the decline in marriage. Using data from the Japanese National Fertility Surveys conducted by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, we show the extent to which changes in the incidences of each type of meeting have contributed to the decline in the first marriage rate since the 1970s. The results indicate that the decrease can be attributed to the drop in the number of arranged marriages (including those resulting from introductions by relatives and superiors), which accounts for approximately 50 percent of the decrease, and to the drop in the number of marriages between coworkers or through meeting on the job, which accounts for nearly 40 percent of the decrease. In other words, the incidences of other types of love marriages, such as meeting "at school," "through friends and siblings," and "while in town or traveling" have hardly changed in the past forty years. The role of matchmaker, once played by the corporate community under the unique population, economic, and employment conditions of the 1960s and 1970s, has been shrinking without a corresponding rise elsewhere. Most unmarried corporate workers, both men and women, continue to work long hours as in the past, without sufficient new opportunities to meet partners arising to offset the decrease in opportunities at work. These findings reveal that the supply side of shrinking opportunities for partner choice, as well as the demand side of marriage (cost and benefit), are significant factors in the rising proportion of the never-married. They also suggest that the current phenomenon cannot be readily resolved without drastic changes in attitudes toward the work-life balance, on the part of both companies and individuals.

Center for Demography and Ecology University of Wisconsin-Madison Cohabitation and First Marriage in Japan

University. Earlier versions of this paper were presented at meetings of the Populatio