Relationship between Remittances and Macroeconomic Variables in Times of Political and Social Upheaval: Evidence from Tunisia's Arab Spring

If Tunisia was hailed as a success story with its high rankings on economic, educational, and other indicators compared to other Arab countries, the 2011 popular uprisings demonstrate the need for political reforms but also major economic reforms. The Arab spring highlights the fragility of its main economic pillars including the tourism and the foreign direct investment. In such turbulent times, the paper examines the economic impact of migrant' remittances, expected to have a countercyclical behavior. Our results reveal that prior to the Arab Spring, the impacts of remittances on growth and consumption seem negative and positive respectively, while they varyingly influence local investment. These three relationships held in the short-run. By considering the period surrounding the 2011 uprisings, the investment effect of remittances becomes negative and weak in the short-and medium-run, whereas positive and strong remittances' impacts on growth and consumption are found in the long term.Comment: ERF 23rd Annual Conference , Mar 2017, Amman, Jorda

Why do migrants remit? Testing hypotheses for the case of Morocco

We use Moroccan data to study the determinants of international migrants' remittances, testing the altruistic and welfare hypotheses. In particular, we analyze and assess what motivates migrants to send remittances back home. Our results lend support to the altruistic hypothesis suggesting that remittances are sent to households with low levels of welfare. Furthermore, the decision to remit is intensely associated to individual characteristics such as migrant income, gender and age. Likewise, remittances may be viewed as loan repayment if the migration costs were borne by the remittance-receiving family

Les migrations internationales et leurs effets

Selon les Nations unies, le nombre de migrants internationaux – c’est-à-dire de personnes vivant dans un pays autre que celui où elles sont nées – a atteint 244 millions en 2015, soit une augmentation de 41 % par rapport à 2000. Bien qu’une grande partie de ces migrants habitent dans un pays du Nord, ceux originaires du Sud et habitant dans le Nord ne représentent qu’un peu plus d’un tiers de l’ensemble des migrants internationaux. Il apparaît, en effet, que dans de nombreuses parties du mond..

Education, Genre et Transferts de fonds des migrants: Quelles interactions dans le Maroc rural ?

In this paper, we analyze the relationship between remittances and educational attainment in Morocco. We investigate how recipient households in Morocco decide to send their children to school.. We use newly survey data on the Souss-Massa-Draa region. Based on probit and instrumental variables estimates to control for endogeneity of remittances, we find a positive effect of remittances on the investments in education, especially for boys. Furthermore, the results show that family and community characteristics such as the level of parental education, the number of children enrolled in the household and the ICDH have a significant impact on the ability of households to support their children's education. They also show the importance of the child's sex in the educational success

Les transferts de fonds réduisent-ils la pauvreté et les inégalités de revenus? Une vérification empirique à travers une enquête dans le milieu rural marocain

For several decades the fight against poverty has become a major policy concern for national governments and international institutions. In this paper, we examine the effect of remittances on poverty and inequality by using an original database of migrants in Morocco. The survey data were collected in the region of Souss-Massa-Draa. We estimate the migrant home earnings under the assumptions of absence of migration and remittances before comparing it to the household income when the migrant leave their native countries. We find that remittances can reduce the number of poor and vulnerable household. Our findings also suggest that these remittances inflows have increased income inequality when compared with the no-migration counterfactual situation

Education, Genre et Transferts de fonds des migrants: Quelles interactions dans le Maroc rural ?

In this paper, we analyze the relationship between remittances and educational attainment in Morocco. We investigate how recipient households in Morocco decide to send their children to school.. We use newly survey data on the Souss-Massa-Draa region. Based on probit and instrumental variables estimates to control for endogeneity of remittances, we find a positive effect of remittances on the investments in education, especially for boys. Furthermore, the results show that family and community characteristics such as the level of parental education, the number of children enrolled in the household and the ICDH have a significant impact on the ability of households to support their children's education. They also show the importance of the child's sex in the educational success

Les transferts de fonds réduisent-ils la pauvreté et les inégalités de revenus? Une vérification empirique à travers une enquête dans le milieu rural marocain

For several decades the fight against poverty has become a major policy concern for national governments and international institutions. In this paper, we examine the effect of remittances on poverty and inequality by using an original database of migrants in Morocco. The survey data were collected in the region of Souss-Massa-Draa. We estimate the migrant home earnings under the assumptions of absence of migration and remittances before comparing it to the household income when the migrant leave their native countries. We find that remittances can reduce the number of poor and vulnerable household. Our findings also suggest that these remittances inflows have increased income inequality when compared with the no-migration counterfactual situation

The effects of remittances on poverty and inequality: Evidence from rural southern Morocco

In this paper, we examine the effect of migrants’ remittances on poverty and inequality. The survey data were collected in Morocco, in the rural areas of the region Souss-Massa-Draa. By applying an original approach, we estimate the counterfactual income of remittance-recipient households corresponding to a hypothetical value of its average income calculated for a scenario without remittances; this is then compared with its current income. We find that the poverty rate and the vulnerability of non-poor households are significantly dropped due to remittances. Our findings also suggest that remittance inflows have increased income inequality compared to the no-migration counterfactual situation

Perbandingan Klasifikasi Antara KNN dan Naive Bayes pada Penentuan Status Gunung Berapi dengan K-Fold Cross Validation

Penelitian ini akan membandingkan dua algoritma klasifikasi yaitu K-Nearest Neighbour dan Naive Bayes Classifier pada data-data aktivitas status gunung berapi yang ada di Indonesia. Sedangkan untuk validasi data menggunakan k-fold cross validation. Dalam penentuan status gunung berapi pusat vulkanologi dan mitigasi bencana geologi melakukan dengan dua hal yaitu pengamatan visual dan faktor kegempaan. Pada penelitian ini dalam melakukan klasifikasi aktivitas gunung berapi menggunakan faktor kegempaan. Ada 5 kriteria yang digunakan dalam melakukan klasifikasi yaitu empat faktor kegempaan diantaranya gempa vulkanik dangkal, gempa tektonik jauh, gempa vulkanik dalam, gempa hembusan dan ditambah satu kriteria yaitu status sebelumnya. Ada 3 status yang di yang diklasifikasi yaitu normal, waspada dan siaga. Hasil penelitian yang dibagi kedalam 3 fold disetiap metode klasifikasi didapat perbandingan akurasi sistem rata-rata tertinggi pada k-nn 63,68 % dengan standar deviasi 7,47 %. Sedangkan dengan menggunakan naive bayes didapat rata-rata akurasi sebesar 79,71 % dengan standar deviasi 3,55 %. Selain itu, penggunaan naive bayes jaraknya akurasi lebih dekat dibandingan dengan k-nn.   Abstract This research will compare two classification algorithms that are K-Nearest Neighbors and Naive Bayes Classifier on data of volcanic status activity in Indonesia. While for data validation use k-fold cross validation. In determining the status of volcanology center volcanology and geological disaster mitigation to do with two things: visual observation and seismic factors. In this research in doing the classification of volcanic activity using earthquake factor. There are 5 criteria used in the classification of four seismic factors such as shallow volcanic earthquakes, distant tectonic earthquakes, volcanic earthquakes in the earthquake, blast and plus one criterion that is the previous status. There are 3 statuses in which are classified ie normal, alert and alert. The results of the study are divided into 3 fold in each classification method obtained comparison of the highest average system accuracy at 63.68% k-nn with a standard deviation of 7.47%. While using naive bayes obtained an average accuracy of 79.71% with a standard deviation of 3.55%. In addition, the use of naive bayes is closer to the accuracy of k-nn

“Every cloud has a silver lining”; to what extent does the Arab Spring accelerate the integration among Arab monarchies?

This study fleshes out the role that may play the Arab revolution in strengthening regional integration. It rigorously assesses the extent of change in the degree of financial interdependence among Arab Monarchies (i.e., Arab Gulf countries, Jordan and Morocco) with the onset of the Arab Spring events. Our results reveal a significant time-varying volatility spillover effects, highlighting a greater interdependency across the focal Arab stock markets. It is also well shown that compared to the Morocco, there is a higher degree of financial integration of Jordan vis-à-vis the Gulf countries. Notably, a different integration patterns arises when accounting for the aftermath of revolution. Under the post-uprisings period, the stock market correlation between Morocco and Gulf countries increase substantially to values as high as the ones of Jordan. This implies that the Arab Spring has changed the nature of shock transmission between these countries, and thus may be perceived as a revival of integration