77 research outputs found
Response of dust emissions in southwestern North America to 21st century trends in climate, CO2 fertilization, and land use: implications for air quality
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Sensitivity of US Air Quality to Mid-Latitude Cyclone Frequency and Implications of 1980–2006 Climate Change
We show that the frequency of summertime mid-latitude cyclones tracking across eastern North America at 40°–50° N (the southern climatological storm track) is a strong predictor of stagnation and ozone pollution days in the eastern US. The NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, going back to 1948, shows a significant long-term decline in the number of summertime mid-latitude cyclones in that track starting in 1980 (−0.15 a−1). The more recent but shorter NCEP/DOE Reanalysis (1979–2006) shows similar interannual variability in cyclone frequency but no significant long-term trend. Analysis of NOAA daily weather maps for 1980–2006 supports the trend detected in the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1. A GISS general circulation model (GCM) simulation including historical forcing by greenhouse gases reproduces this decreasing cyclone trend starting in 1980. Such a long-term decrease in mid-latitude cyclone frequency over the 1980–2006 period may have offset by half the ozone air quality gains in the northeastern US from reductions in anthropogenic emissions. We find that if mid-latitude cyclone frequency had not declined, the northeastern US would have been largely compliant with the ozone air quality standard by 2001. Mid-latitude cyclone frequency is expected to decrease further over the coming decades in response to greenhouse warming and this will necessitate deeper emission reductions to achieve a given air quality goal.Engineering and Applied Science
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Impacts of Changes in Land Use and Land Cover on Atmospheric Chemistry and Air Quality over the 21st Century
The effects of future land use and land cover change on the chemical composition of the atmosphere and air quality are largely unknown. To investigate the potential effects associated with future changes in vegetation driven by atmospheric CO2 concentrations, climate, and anthropogenic land use over the 21st century, we performed a series of model experiments combining a general circulation model with a dynamic global vegetation model and an atmospheric chemical-transport model. Our results indicate that climate- and CO2-induced changes in vegetation composition and density between 2100 and 2000 could lead to decreases in summer afternoon surface ozone of up to 10 ppb over large areas of the northern mid-latitudes. This is largely driven by the substantial increases in ozone dry deposition associated with increases in vegetation density in a warmer climate with higher atmospheric CO2 abundance. Climate-driven vegetation changes over the period 2000–2100 lead to general increases in isoprene emissions, globally by 15% in 2050 and 36% in 2100. These increases in isoprene emissions result in decreases in surface ozone concentrations where the NOx levels are low, such as in remote tropical rainforests. However, over polluted regions, such as the northeastern United States, ozone concentrations are calculated to increase with higher isoprene emissions in the future. Increases in biogenic emissions also lead to higher concentrations of secondary organic aerosols, which increase globally by 10% in 2050 and 20% in 2100. Summertime surface concentrations of secondary organic aerosols are calculated to increase by up to 1 μg m−3 and double for large areas in Eurasia over the period of 2000–2100. When we use a scenario of future anthropogenic land use change, we find less increase in global isoprene emissions due to replacement of higher-emitting forests by lower-emitting cropland. The global atmospheric burden of secondary organic aerosols changes little by 2100 when we account for future land use change, but both secondary organic aerosols and ozone show large regional changes at the surface.Engineering and Applied Science
Trends and spatial shifts in lightning fires and smoke concentrations in response to 21st century climate over the national forests and parks of the western United States
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Effects of 2000-2050 Global Change on Ozone Air Quality in the United States
We investigate the effects on U.S. ozone air quality from 2000–2050 global changes in climate and anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors by using a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) driven by meteorological fields from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (NASA/GISS GCM). We follow the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B scenario and separate the effects from changes in climate and anthropogenic emissions through sensitivity simulations. The 2000–2050 changes in anthropogenic emissions reduce the U.S. summer daily maximum 8-hour ozone by 2–15 ppb, but climate change causes a 2–5 ppb positive offset over the Midwest and northeastern United States, partly driven by decreased ventilation from convection and frontal passages. Ozone pollution episodes are far more affected by climate change than mean values, with effects exceeding 10 ppb in the Midwest and northeast. We find that ozone air quality in the southeast is insensitive to climate change, reflecting compensating effects from changes in isoprene emission and air pollution meteorology. We define a “climate change penalty” as the additional emission controls necessary to meet a given ozone air quality target. We find that a 50% reduction in U.S. NOx emissions is needed in the 2050 climate to reach the same target in the Midwest as a 40% reduction in the 2000 climate. Emission controls reduce the magnitude of this climate change penalty and can even turn it into a climate benefit in some regions.Earth and Planetary SciencesEngineering and Applied Science
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Uncertainty in preindustrial abundance of tropospheric ozone: Implications for radiative forcing calculations
Recent model calculations of the global mean radiative forcing from tropospheric ozone since preindustrial times fall in a relatively narrow range, from 0.3 to 0.5 W m−2. These calculations use preindustrial ozone fields that overestimate observations available from the turn of the nineteenth century. Although there may be calibration problems with the observations, uncertainties in model estimates of preindustrial natural emissions must also be considered. We show that a global three-dimensional model of tropospheric chemistry with reduced NOx emissions from lightning (1–2 Tg N yr−1) and soils (2 Tg N yr−1) and increased emissions of biogenic hydrocarbons can better reproduce the nineteenth century observations. The resulting global mean radiative forcing from tropospheric ozone since preindustrial times is 0.72–0.80 W m−2, amounting to about half of the estimated CO2 forcing. Reduction in the preindustrial lightning source accounts for two thirds of the increase in the ozone forcing. Because there is near-total titration of OH by isoprene in the continental boundary layer of the preindustrial atmosphere, isoprene and other biogenic hydrocarbons represent significant ozone sinks. The weak or absent spring maximum in the nineteenth century observations of ozone is difficult to explain within our understanding of the natural ozone budget. Our results indicate that the uncertainty in computing radiative forcing from tropospheric ozone since preindustrial times is larger than is usually acknowledged.Engineering and Applied Science
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Why Are There Large Differences Between Models in Global Budgets of Tropospheric Ozone?
Global 3-D tropospheric chemistry models in the literature show large differences in global budget terms for tropospheric ozone. The ozone production rate in the troposphere, P(O x ), varies from 2300 to 5300 Tg yr−1 across models describing the present-day atmosphere. The ensemble mean of P(O x ) in models from the post-2000 literature is 35% higher than that compiled in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report (TAR). Simulations conducted with the GEOS-Chem model using two different assimilated meteorological data sets for 2001 (GEOS-3 and GEOS-4), as well as 3 years of GISS GCM meteorology, show P(O x ) values in the range 4250–4700 Tg yr−1; the differences appear mostly because of clouds. Examination of the evolution of P(O x ) over the GEOS-Chem model history shows major effects from changes in heterogeneous chemistry, the lightning NOx source, and the yield of organic nitrates from isoprene oxidation. Multivariate statistical analysis of model budgets in the literature indicates that 74% of the variance in P(O x ) across models can be explained by differences in NOx emissions, inclusion of nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs, mostly biogenic isoprene), and ozone influx from stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE). Higher NOx emissions, more widespread inclusion of NMVOC chemistry, and weaker STE in the more recent models increase ozone production; however, the effect of NMVOCs does not appear generally sensitive to the magnitude of emissions within the range typically used in models (500–900 Tg C yr−1). We find in GEOS-Chem that P(O x ) saturates when NMVOC emissions exceed 200 Tg C yr−1 because of formation of organic nitrates from isoprene oxidation, providing an important sink for NOx.Earth and Planetary SciencesEngineering and Applied Science
Effects of postdepositional processing on nitrogen isotopes of nitrate in the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 ice core
Records of ice core nitrate and its isotopes hold the potential to assess past atmospheric conditions regarding NOx and oxidant levels. However, relating such records to past atmospheric conditions requires a site-specific understanding of the postdepositional processing of snow nitrate. We report δ15N(NO3−) records from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) ice core over major climate transitions. Model calculations and comparison with records of parameters influencing UV-driven postdepositional processing of snow nitrate suggest that the observed variability in GISP2 δ15N(NO3−) over major climate transitions is primarily driven by changes in the degree of postdepositional loss of snow nitrate. Estimates of the fractional loss of snow nitrate is (16–23)% in the Holocene and (45–53)% in the glacial period, suggesting a (41 ± 32)% lower nitrate depositional flux to Greenland during the glacial period relative to the Holocene
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