Framing climate uncertainty:socio-economic and climate scenarios in vulnerability and adaptation assessments

Scenarios have become a powerful tool in integrated assessment and policy analysis for climate change. Socio-economic and climate scenarios are often combined to assess climate change impacts and vulnerabilities across different sectors and to inform risk management strategies. Such combinations of scenarios can also play an important role in enabling the interaction between experts and other stakeholders, framing issues and providing a means for making explicit and dealing with uncertainties. Drawing on experience with the application of scenarios to climate change assessments in recent Dutch research, the paper argues that scenario approaches need to be matched to the frames of stakeholders who are situated in specific decision contexts. Differentiated approaches (top-down, bottom-up and interactive) are needed to address the different frames and decision-making contexts of stakeholders. A framework is proposed to map scenarios and decision contexts onto two dimensions: the spatial scale of the context and the starting point of approach used in scenario development (top-down, bottom-up or incident-driven). Future climate and socio-economic scenario development will be shaped by the need to become better aligned with multiple interacting uncertainties salient to stakeholders. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

Wat kan duurzame handel bijdragen aan het behoud van natuurlijk kapitaal? : effecten van het certificeren van tropische grondstofproductie op ecosysteemdiensten : beleidsstudie

Het afgelopen decennium zijn er flinke stappen gezet met het duurzamer maken van internationale handelsketens van grondstoffen, zoals soja, palmolie, cacao en tropisch hout. Deze in Nederland geïmporteerde grondstoffen zijn steeds vaker gecertificeerd volgens internationale marktstandaarden voor duurzame productie. Daarmee wordt geprobeerd om elders in de wereld betere productieomstandigheden te creëren en negatieve milieueffecten te beperken. Het PBL heeft in deze studie onderzocht of het mogelijk is om met deze standaarden ook het ‘natuurlijk kapitaal’ beter te beheren, of anders gezegd, of het mogelijk is om waardevolle diensten die de natuur aan de maatschappij levert in stand te houden. Bossen zijn een bekend voorbeeld van natuurlijk kapitaal; ze zijn van grote waarde voor de maatschappij omdat ze koolstof opslaan. Uit een kosten-batenanalyse blijkt dat het certificeren van grondstofproductie allerlei maatschappelijke baten oplevert, zoals het verminderen van milieuverontreiniging, bodemerosie en gezondheidsschade. Maar voor de producenten die duurzamer willen opereren zijn de financiële baten vaak beperkt. Deze scheve verdeling van kosten en baten over private en publiek betrokkenen staat het verder opschalen van duurzame productie in de weg. Naast certificering moet daarom ook naar andere oplossingen worden gezocht

Vulnerability to climate change and community based adaptation in the Peruvian Andes, a stepwise approach

The livelihoods of people in the Andes are expected to be affected by climate change due to their dependence on glacier water. The observed decrease in glacier volume over the last few decades is likely to accelerate during the current century, which will affect water availability in the region. This paper presents an approach for participatory development of community-based adaptation measures to cope with the projected impacts of climate change. It combines in an innovative manner participatory design with physical measurements, modeling and a vulnerability analysis. Vulnerability to drought is made operational for households in a catchment of the Ocoña River basin in Peru. On the basis of a household survey (n = 94) we explore how a vulnerability index (risk divided by response efficacy) can be used to assess the distribution of vulnerability over households, and how socio-economic factors determine this vulnerability. Water entitlement, area of irrigated land, income and education are all significantly correlated with vulnerability to drought. The research showed that the main source of spring water is local rainwater, and that water use efficiency is low. The selected adaptation measures aimed to increase water availability close to farmland, and increase water use efficiency of farmers and households

Selective inhibition of BRCA2-deficient mammary tumor cell growth by AZD2281 and cisplatin

Purpose: To assess efficacy of the novel, selective poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase-1 (PARP-1) inhibitor AZD2281 against newly established BRCA2-deficient mouse mammary tumor cell lines and to determine potential synergy between AZD2281 and cisplatin. Experimental Design: We established and thoroughly characterized a panel of clonal cell lines from independent BRCA2-deficient mouse mammary tumors and BRCA2-proficient control tumors. Subsequently, we assessed sensitivity of these lines to conventional cytotoxic drugs and the novel PARP inhibitor AZD2281. Finally, in vitro combination studies were done to investigate interaction between AZD2281 and cisplatin. Results: Genetic, transcriptional, and functional analyses confirmed the successful isolation of BRCA2-deficient and BRCA2-proficient mouse mammary tumor cell lines. Treatment of these cell lines with 11 different anticancer drugs or with γ-irradiation showed that AZD2281, a novel and specific PARP inhibitor, caused the strongest differential growth inhibition of BRCA2-deficient versus BRCA2-proficient mammary tumor cells. Finally, drug combination studies showed synergistic cytotoxicity of AZD2281 and cisplatin against BRCA2-deficient cells but not against BRCA2-proficient control cells. Conclusion: We have successfully established the first set of BRCA2-deficient mammary tumor cell lines, which form an important addition to the existing preclinical models for BRCA-mutated breast cancer. The exquisite sensitivity of these cells to the PARP inhibitor AZD2281, alone or in combination with cisplatin, provides strong support for AZD2281 as a novel targeted therapeutic against BRCA-deficient cancers