SLIDES: The Here and Now of U.S. Nat Gas

Presenter: Michelle Michot Foss, Chief Energy Economist, Center for Energy Economics, Bureau of Economic Geology, University of Texas, Austin, TX 12 slide

SLIDES: The Here and Now of U.S. Nat Gas

Presenter: Michelle Michot Foss, Chief Energy Economist, Center for Energy Economics, Bureau of Economic Geology, University of Texas, Austin, TX 12 slide

United States natural gas prices to 2015

For 2005, total United States natural gas consumption as reported by the US Energy Information Administration (USEIA) was just below 22 Tcf, which was about 1 Tcf less than the historic high of 23 Tcf reached in 2000. At roughly 19 Tcf, the total figure for marketed production reported by USEIA was lower than the recent high of 20.6 Tcf reached in 2001 and substantially below the all-time high of 22.6 Tcf reached in 1973. For 2006, consumption will register slightly lower and production slightly higher, continuing the essentially flat to slightly declining market conditions that have prevailed since the mid- 1990s. A perennial "gap" between domestic production and demand became a feature of the US natural gas marketplace in 1988. After jumping a new hurdle of 2.7 Tcf in 1995, the supply-demand gap has generally ranged between 2 and 3.2 Tcf every year since then, except for 2000 when it achieved its widest point, reflecting a tightening of the US natural gas balance that was ultimately expressed in a sharp spike in prices set at Henry Hub in Erath, Louisiana, the main US (and North American) trading point. A narrowing in the supply-demand gap is estimated for 2006, a reflection of softer fundamentals and a precursor to a widely expected correction in prices during 2007

United States natural gas prices to 2015: OIES paper: NG18

For 2005, total United States natural gas consumption as reported by the US Energy Information Administration (USEIA) was just below 22 Tcf, which was about 1 Tcf less than the historic high of 23 Tcf reached in 2000. At roughly 19 Tcf, the total figure for marketed production reported by USEIA was lower than the recent high of 20.6 Tcf reached in 2001 and substantially below the all-time high of 22.6 Tcf reached in 1973. For 2006, consumption will register slightly lower and production slightly higher, continuing the essentially flat to slightly declining market conditions that have prevailed since the mid- 1990s. A perennial "gap" between domestic production and demand became a feature of the US natural gas marketplace in 1988. After jumping a new hurdle of 2.7 Tcf in 1995, the supply-demand gap has generally ranged between 2 and 3.2 Tcf every year since then, except for 2000 when it achieved its widest point, reflecting a tightening of the US natural gas balance that was ultimately expressed in a sharp spike in prices set at Henry Hub in Erath, Louisiana, the main US (and North American) trading point. A narrowing in the supply-demand gap is estimated for 2006, a reflection of softer fundamentals and a precursor to a widely expected correction in prices during 2007

The Outlook for U.S. Gas Prices in 2020: Henry Hub at 3 dollars or 10 dollars?

In this paper Michelle Foss concludes that Henry Hub gas prices could credibly be as low as 3dollars/MMbtu, or as high as 10dollars/MMbtu in 2020 but that the balance of likelihoods is for a price late this decade which is significantly higher than the current 3-4dollars/MMbtu levels of 2011. Michelle Foss’ study looks at the past five years of supply, demand and pricing which have been strongly impacted by the unconventional gas – and particularly shale gas – revolution and how different views of its evolution will impact future pricing. The study is a forensic analysis of the huge uncertainties surrounding US natural gas supply and demand which illustrates why both commentators and stakeholders have continuously failed to foresee even the approximate direction of prices, leading to the building of numerous LNG import terminals many of which now seem likely to be converted into export terminals

The Outlook for U.S. Gas Prices in 2020: Henry Hub at 3or3 or 10?

In this paper Michelle Foss concludes that Henry Hub gas prices could credibly be as low as $3/MMbtu, or as high as$10/MMbtu in 2020 but that the balance of likelihoods is for a price late this decade which is significantly higher than the current $3-4/MMbtu levels of 2011. Michelle Foss’ study looks at the past five years of supply, demand and pricing which have been strongly impacted by the unconventional gas – and particularly shale gas – revolution and how different views of its evolution will impact future pricing. The study is a forensic analysis of the huge uncertainties surrounding US natural gas supply and demand which illustrates why both commentators and stakeholders have continuously failed to foresee even the approximate direction of prices, leading to the building of numerous LNG import terminals many of which now seem likely to be converted into export terminals

Shale gas development in the USA

Much has been written about the impact shale plays are having on the US exploration and production businesses. Already, results achieved in US drilling are altering views around the world regarding unconventional oil and gas resources in general, and shales in particular. Even more, viewpoints are being altered when it comes to US energy supply and especially the ‘call’ on liquefied natural gas (LNG) that was supposed to emanate from the United States

Electricity and natural gas sectors in Korea: synthetical overview and recent developments

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