Threshold Relationships among Inflation, Financial Market Development and Growth

This paper tests for and estimates non-dynamic panel threshold relationships among inflation, financial market development and growth, where the relationship changes once a threshold level of inflation is reached. Robust statistical support of a single threshold value of inflation (about 14%) is found for this trivariate relationship. A strong positive relationship between growth and financial market development occurs before the threshold, and a strong negative relationship between growth and inflation occurs after the threshold. When an interaction variable between inflation and financial market development is introduced, the relationship between growth and inflation is significantly negative only before the threshold.thresholds; growth; financial markets; inflation; panel methods

Non-linear Threshold Relationships between Inflation and Nominal Returns: A Time Series Approach to 39 Different Countries

A linear null relationship between nominal returns and inflation is tested against threshold alternatives using quarterly and monthly data for 39 different countries. These threshold alternatives and the linear nulls are then estimated to unover the nature of linear and threshold relationships between nominal returns and inflation.financial market, inflation, linear model

Inside and Outside Bounds: Threshold Estimates of the Phillips Curve

There have been several instances over the past 40 years when large movements in the unemployment rate have elicited little response in the inflation rate. Such instances, while casting doubt on the tradeoff implied by the linear Phillips curve, are also associated with large inflation forecasting errors. In principle, these movements are consistent with a Phillips curve relationship; they just require the curve to shift in the same direction as the unemployment rate. Econometric representations of the Phillips relationship usually incorporate factors that can cause the Phillips curve to shift over time. However, the literature has not yet provided a test of whether such factors are sufficient to explain the episodes of horizontal movement. In this paper, the authors test the explanatory power of a double threshold specification of the Phillips relationship against a simple linear specification, and compare dynamic and static out of sample forecasts of inflation across linear and double threshold specifications of the Phillips curve. The authors find that traditional shifters in the relationships are insufficient for characterizing the periods of horizontal movement, and that a double threshold specification makes significant improvements in the static and dynamic out of sample inflation forecasting performance of the Phillips curvPhillips Curve; Threshold Models; Inflation Forecasting

Master of Science

thesisPlasmonic nanocrescents have been of interest due to their unique optical properties and relative ease of fabrication, as well as their potential applications in surface enhanced spectroscopies. In order to engineer nanocrescents as optimized substrates for these applications, a good understanding of the nanostructure - optical response relationship is necessary. This thesis research focused on understanding the localized surface plasmon resonance (LSPR) wavelength dependence on nanocrescent structural details, such as backbone width, arrayed assemblies, and size. The work presented here shows that the LSPR wavelength can be tuned through a wide spectral region through control of the physical structure of the nanocrescent. This thesis research also focused on understanding the polarization-dependent near-field distribution of the various plasmon resonance modes that arise due to structural asymmetry. The near-field distributions for the short- and long-axis dipoles were mapped through enhanced, localized photopolymerization of photoresist

Groundwater dynamics in degrading, discontinuous permafrost

Thesis (M.S.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2014In regions impacted by permafrost, discontinuities are areas of possible connection between the supra- and sub-permafrost portions of an aquifer. Permafrost discontinuities influence the transport of contaminants in an aquifer, necessitating delineation of these discontinuities and their influence on groundwater flow. Means of identifying the locations of permafrost discontinuities have previously been limited to geophysical methods and the evaluation of well logs. In this study we use groundwater elevation trends and environmental tracers (e.g., stable isotopes and temperature) to evaluate the dynamics in a sulfolane-contaminated aquifer located in a region of discontinuous permafrost in the Interior of Alaska. Using tracers to identify areas of discontinuities in the permafrost should help us locate thawed through-taliks and may also improve our understanding of the interaction between the supra- and sub-permafrost groundwater in discontinuous permafrost. With this approach we identified at least three discontinuities within the study area. The locations of these discontinuities coincide with transport of the contaminant found in this aquifer. The primary source of recharge for this aquifer is the Tanana River, a major tributary to the Yukon River. The source of water for the Tanana River is glacial melt in the summer and groundwater during the winter. Through the isotopic composition of the supra-permafrost groundwater we show the occurrence of additional recharge to the supra-permafrost groundwater from sub-permafrost groundwater and precipitation. Understanding these dynamics is paramount to characterizing the contaminant transport in permafrost impacted aquifers.1 Introduction -- 1.1 Thesis Objectives -- 2 Site Description -- 2.1.1 Sulfolane Contamination -- 2.1.1.1 Contaminant Characteristics -- 2.1.1.2 Groundwater Contamination -- 2.1.2 Climate, Land Use and Land Cover -- 2.1.3 Geology and Permafrost -- 2.1.4 Hydrology -- 2.1.4.1 Aquifer Recharge and Properties -- 2.1.4.2 Tanana River -- 2.1.4.3 Chena River -- 2.1.4.4 Moose Creek Dam -- 2.1.4.5 Sloughs -- 2.1.4.6 C-ditch and Gravel Pits -- 3 Natural Tracers and Trends in Groundwater Elevations -- 3.1 Groundwater Elevations -- 3.2 Groundwater Temperatures -- 3.3 Stable Isotopes -- 4 Methods -- 4.1 Data Collection -- 4.1.1 Groundwater Elevations -- 4.1.2 Groundwater Temperatures -- 4.1.3 Stable Isotopes -- 4.2 Data Analysis Procedure -- 4.2.1 Groundwater Elevation Trends -- 4.2.2 Groundwater Temperature Profile Trends -- 4.2.3 Stable Isotope Classifications -- 5 Results -- 5.1 Groundwater Elevation Trends -- 5.2 Groundwater Temperature Profile Trends -- 5.3 Stable Isotope Classifications and Trends -- 5.3.1 Monitoring well -- 5.3.2 Private Sub-permafrost Wells -- 5.4 Combined Spatial Analysis -- 6 Discussion -- 6.1 Indicators of Discontinuities -- 6.2 Locations of Discontinuities -- 6.3 Ground Penetrating Radar -- 6.4 Differences in Isotopic Signatures -- 6.5 Improved Understanding of Aquifer Dynamics -- 6.5.1 Spring 2013 -- 6.5.2 Late Summer 2013 -- 6.5.3 Fall 2013 -- 6.5.4 Supra-permafrost Groundwater Recharge -- 6.6 Contaminant Transport -- 6.7 Other Applications -- 6.8 Groundwater Temperature Profiles Used for Indicators of Taliks -- 6.9 Future Work -- 7 Conclusion -- References -- Appendix

Defining Diagnosis: A Reflexive Account of a Chronic Dis-ease Process

This is an autoethnographic account of the experience of living with chronic illness and a liminal status. This reflexive study is divided into three parts: 1) Lupus, the defining diagnosis, 2) Dis-ease, identity and reevaluation 3) Dis-identification, chronic dis-ease, and liminality. Throughout, music lyrics and my own poetry are used to represent my fluctuating identity. Systemic lupus erythematous (SLE) is a rare yet complex disease. The etiology is constantly questioned by doctors and not readily seen; it is both contested and invisible. Patients with this illness are highly stigmatized, and their psychological welfare can become neglected in a biomedical system that does not account for the overall well-being of patients. This case study addresses some potential consequences for an identity tarnished in this way. Misdiagnosis is sorely understudied throughout the literature and fails to account for the lived experience of the patient. This study seeks to fill these gaps

Modeling Financial Volatility: Extreme Observations, Nonlinearities and Nonstationarities

This paper presents a selective survey of volatility topics, with emphasis on the measurement of volatility and a discussion of some of the most important time series models commonly employed in its modelling. In particular, the paper details the long memory characteristics of volatility, and discusses its possible origins and impact on option pricing. To conclude, the paper discusses statistical tools that discriminate between nonlinearity and nonstationarity.long memory; nonstationarity; nonlinearity; option pricing, volatility

Employer-Funded Education and Training - Who Receives it?

This paper explores variations in the receipt of employer­funded education and training across the workforce, identifying which individuals and groups are most likely (or least likely) to receive further education or training with their employer’s financial support. It analyses new data that were collected in Statistics New Zealand’s Survey of Working Life (SoWL) 2008. Average training rates and training days are described for different groups of employees. Regression models are then used to estimate the likelihood of receiving training for people with different personal, job and employer characteristics. Thirty­one percent of employees were identified in the SoWL as having received some employer­funded education or training in the previous 12 months. Consistent with the evidence from the international literature, we find employer­funded education and training to be unequally distributed across the workforce

Posing for the Camera: An Analysis of Pre-service Teachers’ Discursive Practices During a Video Analysis Session

In this study, we inquired into the potential that the collective analysis of teaching via a Video Analysis Session (VAS) might serve as a form of critical reflection for pre-service teachers (PSTs) to not only pose questions about their own practice, but to take on a critical stance, or pose, toward their craft. Specifically, we analyzed the experiences of pre-service English Language Arts teachers as they planned for, participated in, and collectively reflected on video clips of their teaching in a collective VAS. We drew on positioning theory and the tools of Conversation Analysis to examine the nature of the interactions among PSTs as they provided feedback to one another during the VAS. Implications suggest that to facilitate critical reflection via a VAS, teacher educators must guide PSTs to consider the myriad contextual factors that shape student learning and teachers’ pedagogical choices

On the Nature of Dependence in the Volatility of US Stock Returns

Long memory in the volatility of individual return series and in the volatility of equal-weighted portfolios constituted by the individual return series is analyzed to see if the memory characteristic of the volatility representation is correlated with the portfolio characteristics of size, standard deviation of returns, and firm's beta.financial market, time series; United States