Visualising disease progression on multiple variables with vector plots and path plots.

BACKGROUND: It is often desirable to observe how a disease progresses over time in individual patients, rather than graphing group averages; and since multiple outcomes are typically recorded on each patient, it would be advantageous to visualise disease progression on multiple variables simultaneously. METHODS: A variety of vector plots and a path plot have been developed for this purpose, and data from a longitudinal Huntington's disease study are used to illustrate the utility of these graphical methods for exploratory data analysis. RESULTS: Initial and final values for three outcome variables can be easily visualised per patient, along with the change in these variables over time. In addition to the disease trajectory, the path individual patients take from initial to final observation can be traced. Categorical variables can be coded with different types of vectors or paths (e.g. different colours, line types, line thickness) and separate panels can be used to include further categorical or continuous variables, allowing clear visualisation of further information for each individual. In addition, summary statistics such as mean vectors, bivariate interquartile ranges and convex polygons can be included to assist in interpreting trajectories, comparing groups, and detecting multivariate outliers. CONCLUSION: Vector and path plots are useful graphical methods for exploratory data analysis when individual-level information on multiple variables over time is desired, and they have several advantages over plotting each variable separately.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

Optimum structure for a uniform load over multiple spans

This paper presents a new half-plane Michell structure that transmits a uniformly distributed load of infinite horizontal extent to a series of equally-spaced pinned supports. Full kinematic description of the structure is obtained for the case when the maximum allowable tensile stress is greater than or equal to the allowable compressive stress. Although formal proof of optimality of the solution presented is not yet available, the proposed analytical solution is supported by substantial numerical evidence, involving the solution of problems with in excess of 10 billion potential members. Furthermore, numerical solutions for various combinations of unequal allowable stresses suggest the existence of a family of related, simple, and practically relevant structures, which range in form from a Hemp-type arch with vertical hangers to a structure which strongly resembles a cable-stayed bridge

The mesenchymal stem cells in multiple sclerosis (MSCIMS) trial protocol and baseline cohort characteristics: an open-label pre-test: post-test study with blinded outcome assessments.

BACKGROUND: No treatments are currently available that slow, stop, or reverse disease progression in established multiple sclerosis (MS). The Mesenchymal Stem Cells in Multiple Sclerosis (MSCIMS) trial tests the safety and feasibility of treatment with a candidate cell-based therapy, and will inform the wider challenge of designing early phase clinical trials to evaluate putative neuroprotective therapies in progressive MS. Illustrated by the MSCIMS trial protocol, we describe a novel methodology based on detailed assessment of the anterior visual pathway as a model of wider disease processes--the "sentinel lesion approach". METHODS/DESIGN: MSCIMS is a phase IIA study of autologous mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) in secondary progressive MS. A pre-test : post-test design is used with healthy controls providing normative data for inter-session variability. Complementary eligibility criteria and outcomes are used to select participants with disease affecting the anterior visual pathway. RESULTS: Ten participants with MS and eight healthy controls were recruited between October 2008 and March 2009. Mesenchymal stem cells were successfully isolated, expanded and characterised in vitro for all participants in the treatment arm. CONCLUSIONS: In addition to determining the safety and feasibility of the intervention and informing design of future studies to address efficacy, MSCIMS adopts a novel strategy for testing neuroprotective agents in MS--the sentinel lesion approach--serving as proof of principle for its future wider applicability. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00395200).RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

Determination of neo- and d-chiro-Inositol Hexakisphosphate in Soils by Solution 31P NMR Spectroscopy

The inositol phosphates are an abundant but poorly understood group of organic phosphorus compounds found widely in the environment. Four stereoisomers of inositol hexakisphosphate (IP6) occur, although for three of these (scyllo, flea, and D-chiro) the origins, dynamics, and biological function remain unknown, due in large part to analytical limitations in their measurement in environmental samples. We synthesized authentic neo- and n-chiro-IP6 and used them to identify signals from these compounds in three soils from the Falkland Islands. Both compounds resisted hypobromite oxidation and gave quantifiable P-31 NMR signals at delta = 6.67 ppm (equatorial phosphate groups of the 4-equatorial/2-axial conformer of neo-IP6) and delta = 6.48 ppm (equatorial phosphate groups of the 2-equatorial/4-axial conformer of D-chiro-IP6) in soil extracts. Inositol hexakisphosphate accounted for 46-54% of the soil organic phosphorus, of which the four stereoisomers constituted, on average, 55.9% (myo), 32.8% (scyllo), 6.1% (neo), and 5.2% (n-chiro). Reappraisal of the literature based on the new signal assignments revealed that neo- and D-chiro-IP6 occur widely in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. These results confirm that the inositol phosphates can constitute a considerable fraction of the organic phosphorus in soils and reveal the prevalence of neo- and D-chiro-IP6 in the environment. The hypobromite oxidation and solution P-31 NMR spectroscopy procedure allows the simultaneous quantification of all four IP6 stereoisomers in environmental samples and provides a platform for research into the origins and ecological significance of these enigmatic compounds

Evaluating the Effects of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Mutation D614G on Transmissibility and Pathogenicity.

Global dispersal and increasing frequency of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein variant D614G are suggestive of a selective advantage but may also be due to a random founder effect. We investigate the hypothesis for positive selection of spike D614G in the United Kingdom using more than 25,000 whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences. Despite the availability of a large dataset, well represented by both spike 614 variants, not all approaches showed a conclusive signal of positive selection. Population genetic analysis indicates that 614G increases in frequency relative to 614D in a manner consistent with a selective advantage. We do not find any indication that patients infected with the spike 614G variant have higher COVID-19 mortality or clinical severity, but 614G is associated with higher viral load and younger age of patients. Significant differences in growth and size of 614G phylogenetic clusters indicate a need for continued study of this variant

Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, and vaccine effectiveness associated with the Delta variant

SARS-CoV-2 infections were rising during early summer 2021 in many countries associated with the Delta variant. We assessed RT-PCR swab-positivity in the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study in England. We observed sustained exponential growth with average doubling time (June-July 2021) of 25 days driven by complete replacement of Alpha variant by Delta, and by high prevalence at younger less-vaccinated ages. Unvaccinated people were three times more likely than double-vaccinated people to test positive. However, after adjusting for age and other variables, vaccine effectiveness for double-vaccinated people was estimated at between ~50% and ~60% during this period in England. Increased social mixing in the presence of Delta had the potential to generate sustained growth in infections, even at high levels of vaccination

Investigation of hospital discharge cases and SARS-CoV-2 introduction into Lothian care homes

Background The first epidemic wave of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Scotland resulted in high case numbers and mortality in care homes. In Lothian, over one-third of care homes reported an outbreak, while there was limited testing of hospital patients discharged to care homes. Aim To investigate patients discharged from hospitals as a source of SARS-CoV-2 introduction into care homes during the first epidemic wave. Methods A clinical review was performed for all patients discharges from hospitals to care homes from 1st March 2020 to 31st May 2020. Episodes were ruled out based on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) test history, clinical assessment at discharge, whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data and an infectious period of 14 days. Clinical samples were processed for WGS, and consensus genomes generated were used for analysis using Cluster Investigation and Virus Epidemiological Tool software. Patient timelines were obtained using electronic hospital records. Findings In total, 787 patients discharged from hospitals to care homes were identified. Of these, 776 (99%) were ruled out for subsequent introduction of SARS-CoV-2 into care homes. However, for 10 episodes, the results were inconclusive as there was low genomic diversity in consensus genomes or no sequencing data were available. Only one discharge episode had a genomic, time and location link to positive cases during hospital admission, leading to 10 positive cases in their care home. Conclusion The majority of patients discharged from hospitals were ruled out for introduction of SARS-CoV-2 into care homes, highlighting the importance of screening all new admissions when faced with a novel emerging virus and no available vaccine

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron is an immune escape variant with an altered cell entry pathway

Vaccines based on the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 are a cornerstone of the public health response to COVID-19. The emergence of hypermutated, increasingly transmissible variants of concern (VOCs) threaten this strategy. Omicron (B.1.1.529), the fifth VOC to be described, harbours multiple amino acid mutations in spike, half of which lie within the receptor-binding domain. Here we demonstrate substantial evasion of neutralization by Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 variants in vitro using sera from individuals vaccinated with ChAdOx1, BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273. These data were mirrored by a substantial reduction in real-world vaccine effectiveness that was partially restored by booster vaccination. The Omicron variants BA.1 and BA.2 did not induce cell syncytia in vitro and favoured a TMPRSS2-independent endosomal entry pathway, these phenotypes mapping to distinct regions of the spike protein. Impaired cell fusion was determined by the receptor-binding domain, while endosomal entry mapped to the S2 domain. Such marked changes in antigenicity and replicative biology may underlie the rapid global spread and altered pathogenicity of the Omicron variant

Evaluating the Effects of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Mutation D614G on Transmissibility and Pathogenicity

Global dispersal and increasing frequency of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein variant D614G are suggestive of a selective advantage but may also be due to a random founder effect. We investigate the hypothesis for positive selection of spike D614G in the United Kingdom using more than 25,000 whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences. Despite the availability of a large dataset, well represented by both spike 614 variants, not all approaches showed a conclusive signal of positive selection. Population genetic analysis indicates that 614G increases in frequency relative to 614D in a manner consistent with a selective advantage. We do not find any indication that patients infected with the spike 614G variant have higher COVID-19 mortality or clinical severity, but 614G is associated with higher viral load and younger age of patients. Significant differences in growth and size of 614G phylogenetic clusters indicate a need for continued study of this variant

Changes in symptomatology, reinfection, and transmissibility associated with the SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7: an ecological study

Background The SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 was first identified in December, 2020, in England. We aimed to investigate whether increases in the proportion of infections with this variant are associated with differences in symptoms or disease course, reinfection rates, or transmissibility. Methods We did an ecological study to examine the association between the regional proportion of infections with the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant and reported symptoms, disease course, rates of reinfection, and transmissibility. Data on types and duration of symptoms were obtained from longitudinal reports from users of the COVID Symptom Study app who reported a positive test for COVID-19 between Sept 28 and Dec 27, 2020 (during which the prevalence of B.1.1.7 increased most notably in parts of the UK). From this dataset, we also estimated the frequency of possible reinfection, defined as the presence of two reported positive tests separated by more than 90 days with a period of reporting no symptoms for more than 7 days before the second positive test. The proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections with the B.1.1.7 variant across the UK was estimated with use of genomic data from the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium and data from Public Health England on spike-gene target failure (a non-specific indicator of the B.1.1.7 variant) in community cases in England. We used linear regression to examine the association between reported symptoms and proportion of B.1.1.7. We assessed the Spearman correlation between the proportion of B.1.1.7 cases and number of reinfections over time, and between the number of positive tests and reinfections. We estimated incidence for B.1.1.7 and previous variants, and compared the effective reproduction number, Rt, for the two incidence estimates. Findings From Sept 28 to Dec 27, 2020, positive COVID-19 tests were reported by 36 920 COVID Symptom Study app users whose region was known and who reported as healthy on app sign-up. We found no changes in reported symptoms or disease duration associated with B.1.1.7. For the same period, possible reinfections were identified in 249 (0·7% [95% CI 0·6–0·8]) of 36 509 app users who reported a positive swab test before Oct 1, 2020, but there was no evidence that the frequency of reinfections was higher for the B.1.1.7 variant than for pre-existing variants. Reinfection occurrences were more positively correlated with the overall regional rise in cases (Spearman correlation 0·56–0·69 for South East, London, and East of England) than with the regional increase in the proportion of infections with the B.1.1.7 variant (Spearman correlation 0·38–0·56 in the same regions), suggesting B.1.1.7 does not substantially alter the risk of reinfection. We found a multiplicative increase in the Rt of B.1.1.7 by a factor of 1·35 (95% CI 1·02–1·69) relative to pre-existing variants. However, Rt fell below 1 during regional and national lockdowns, even in regions with high proportions of infections with the B.1.1.7 variant. Interpretation The lack of change in symptoms identified in this study indicates that existing testing and surveillance infrastructure do not need to change specifically for the B.1.1.7 variant. In addition, given that there was no apparent increase in the reinfection rate, vaccines are likely to remain effective against the B.1.1.7 variant. Funding Zoe Global, Department of Health (UK), Wellcome Trust, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (UK), National Institute for Health Research (UK), Medical Research Council (UK), Alzheimer's Society