Trans-cultural community development

Moyer was the community developer among the Elmo Kootenai between 1969 and 1971, much of the material in the thesis comes from the lessons he learned from that work. Looks at the economic, recreational and religious composition of the Elmo Kootenai

Comet Shoemaker‐Levy 9: No effect on the Io plasma torus

Observations of the Io plasma torus made before, during, and after the impact of Comet Shoemaker‐Levy 9 with Jupiter reveal no comet‐induced changes. Three weeks of high spectral‐resolution ground‐based visible spectroscopy show no changes larger than typical day‐to‐day variations in the torus densities, ion temperatures, or rotation velocities. Comparison with six months of identically obtained data from 1991 and 1992 also shows no differences

Estimating changes in temperature extremes from millennial scale climate simulations using generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions

Changes in extreme weather may produce some of the largest societal impacts of anthropogenic climate change. However, it is intrinsically difficult to estimate changes in extreme events from the short observational record. In this work we use millennial runs from the CCSM3 in equilibrated pre-industrial and possible future conditions to examine both how extremes change in this model and how well these changes can be estimated as a function of run length. We estimate changes to distributions of future temperature extremes (annual minima and annual maxima) in the contiguous United States by fitting generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions. Using 1000-year pre-industrial and future time series, we show that the magnitude of warm extremes largely shifts in accordance with mean shifts in summertime temperatures. In contrast, cold extremes warm more than mean shifts in wintertime temperatures, but changes in GEV location parameters are largely explainable by mean shifts combined with reduced wintertime temperature variability. In addition, changes in the spread and shape of the GEV distributions of cold extremes at inland locations can lead to discernible changes in tail behavior. We then examine uncertainties that result from using shorter model runs. In principle, the GEV distribution provides theoretical justification to predict infrequent events using time series shorter than the recurrence frequency of those events. To investigate how well this approach works in practice, we estimate 20-, 50-, and 100-year extreme events using segments of varying lengths. We find that even using GEV distributions, time series that are of comparable or shorter length than the return period of interest can lead to very poor estimates. These results suggest caution when attempting to use short observational time series or model runs to infer infrequent extremes.Comment: 33 pages, 22 figures, 1 tabl

Police/Citizen Encounters: An Examination of Less Lethal Weapons, Their Effectiveness, and Officer Decision Making

Law enforcement officers expect to be issued the most effective less lethal weapons to stop the escalation of force. At the same time, citizens expect law enforcement officers to utilize their training and skills to resolve situations with the least amount of force possible. This research project attempts to answer the following research questions: (1) What weapon, short of lethal force, is most effective in stopping the escalation of force? (2) What factors do officers take into account in choosing a particular weapon and why? The study results may assist local, state, and federal law enforcement agencies and policymakers in three ways: (1) inform them of the most effective less lethal weapons that stop the escalation of force; (2) make suggestions for policy revisions and develop new policies for less lethal equipment implementation; and (3) identify those decision making variables that officers use or do not use as part of their perceptual shorthand. The focal concerns perspective and street-level bureaucrat theories guide the theoretical framework. The focal concerns perspective draws from Steffensmeier\u27s work from the 1980\u27s and expounds upon the work done by Skolnick (2011) by providing evidence of the factors that officers use as their perceptual shorthand. The research findings also build upon the street-level bureaucrat construct in that they show evidence of the high level of discretion each officer possesses when they are involved in a use of force incident. Data are collected from a sample of 113 Use of Force Reports. The method of force (weapon) was recorded for each suspect involved in the use of force incident. Also, the dependent variable, whether the method chosen was effective or ineffective, was recorded. A mixed methods approach using the convergent triangulation strategy is employed. The qualitative section employs semistructured interviews with officers. The analysis suggests that two weapons, the TASER and hands-on tactics, were most effective in stopping the escalation of force. The qualitative analysis produces a list of factors that affect decision making including: age (only including the cases of extremely young or old), stature/condition of the suspect, call type, prior knowledge of the suspect, gender, and proximity. Recommendations for future research are also discussed

Estimating trends in the global mean temperature record

Given uncertainties in physical theory and numerical climate simulations, the historical temperature record is often used as a source of empirical information about climate change. Many historical trend analyses appear to de-emphasize physical and statistical assumptions: examples include regression models that treat time rather than radiative forcing as the relevant covariate, and time series methods that account for internal variability in nonparametric rather than parametric ways. However, given a limited data record and the presence of internal variability, estimating radiatively forced temperature trends in the historical record necessarily requires some assumptions. Ostensibly empirical methods can also involve an inherent conflict in assumptions: they require data records that are short enough for naive trend models to be applicable, but long enough for long-timescale internal variability to be accounted for. In the context of global mean temperatures, empirical methods that appear to de-emphasize assumptions can therefore produce misleading inferences, because the trend over the twentieth century is complex and the scale of temporal correlation is long relative to the length of the data record. We illustrate here how a simple but physically motivated trend model can provide better-fitting and more broadly applicable trend estimates and can allow for a wider array of questions to be addressed. In particular, the model allows one to distinguish, within a single statistical framework, between uncertainties in the shorter-term vs. longer-term response to radiative forcing, with implications not only on historical trends but also on uncertainties in future projections. We also investigate the consequence on inferred uncertainties of the choice of a statistical description of internal variability. While nonparametric methods may seem to avoid making explicit assumptions, we demonstrate how even misspecified parametric statistical methods, if attuned to the important characteristics of internal variability, can result in more accurate uncertainty statements about trends