Mastering the Gray Zone: Understanding a Changing Era of Conflict

Discussions of an emerging practice of “gray zone” conflict have become increasingly common throughout the U.S. Army and the wider national security community, but the concept remains ill-defined and poorly understood. This monograph aims to contribute to the emerging dialogue about competition and rivalry in the gray zone by defining the term, comparing and contrasting it with related theories, and offering tentative hypotheses about this increasingly important form of state competition. The idea of operating gradually and somewhat covertly to remain below key thresholds of response is hardly new. Many approaches being used today—such as support for proxy forces and insurgent militias—have been employed for millennia. The monograph argues that the emergence of this more coherent and intentional form of gray zone conflict is best understood as the confluence of three factors. Understood in this context, gray zone strategies can be defined as a form of conflict that pursues political objectives through integrated campaigns; employs mostly nonmilitary or nonkinetic tools; strives to remain under key escalatory or red line thresholds to avoid outright conventional conflict; and moves gradually toward its objectives rather than seeking conclusive results in a relatively limited period of time. Having examined the scope and character of gray zone conflict, the monograph offers seven hypotheses about this emerging form of rivalry. Finally, the monograph offers recommendations for the United States and its friends and allies to deal with this challenge.https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1427/thumbnail.jp

North Korean Decisionmaking

Discerning the decisionmaking of Kim Jong-Un and the North Korean regime on issues of peaceful engagement and warlike actions endures as a mighty challenge for U.S. intelligence analysts and policymakers. In this report, we seek to inform analysis of Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) leadership decisionmaking. To do so, we use three discussion papers that were written to facilitate discussion of an interagency working group. The three papers are assembled here in a single report. The first discussion paper describes decisionmaking among different authoritarian regimes, including North Korea, and the opening up of those economies to outside engagement. The second paper outlines two different scenarios that might occur when conventional deterrence on the Korean Peninsula breaks down and the resulting decisions that North Korea’s leadership could face. The third paper assesses DPRK decisionmaking about nuclear weapon use. The report concludes with some observations, drawn from the issues covered in these three discussion papers, about DPRK decisionmaking and stability on the Korean Peninsula

Desert storm : the gulf war and what we larned

ix, 207 p. : il.; 23 cm

The Revolution in Military Affairs: A Framework for Defense Planning

In April 1994, the Army War College\u27s Strategic Studies Institute held its annual Strategy Conference. This year\u27s theme was The Revolution in Military Affairs: Defining an Army for the 21st Century. Dr. Michael J. Mazarr argues that the current revolution in military affairs is part of a larger sociopolitical transformation. The new technologies both propelling and resulting from this transformation are having a profound impact on warfare. Dr. Mazarr urges military and civilian strategists, planners, and decisionmakers to think about armed conflict in ways so novel that those used to dealing with the unchanging truths about war may feel threatened. To help deal with the ambiguities and complexities presented by the RMA, Dr. Mazarr offers a framework of four principles for defense planning.https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1264/thumbnail.jp

The Iraq war and agenda setting

Michael J. Mazar

Rediscovering Statecraft in a Changing Post-War Order (May 2018)

If Washington doubles down on U.S. military and geopolitical predominance, it risks transforming the emerging competitive era into something far more confrontational and zero-sum than it needs to be. If it hopes to retain its position of leadership, the United States will have to make the present international order truly multilateral.LBJ School of Public Affair

Policy Paper 12: U.S. Intervention in Ethnic Conflict

Transnational ethnic conflict is a major source of violence and instability in the contemporary international system. It is too early to tell whether this threat will prove to be a transitory consequence of the collapse of multinational states, such as the Soviet Union and the former Yugoslavia, or will become a defining characteristic of post-Cold War world politics. In either case, recent instances of ethnic strife in Bosnia, Chechnya, Rwanda and the Kurdish area of northern Iraq remind us that ethnic conflicts will pose continuing problems for U.S. foreign policy