Comparisons and Combinations of Reactor and Long-Baseline Neutrino Oscillation Measurements

We investigate how the data from various future neutrino oscillation experiments will constrain the physics parameters for a three active neutrino mixing model. The investigations properly account for the degeneracies and ambiguities associated with the phenomenology as well as estimates of experimental measurement errors. Combinations of various reactor measurements with the expected J-PARC (T2K) and NuMI offaxis (Nova) data, both with and without the increased flux associated with proton driver upgrades, are considered. The studies show how combinations of reactor and offaxis data can resolve degeneracies (e.g. the theta23 degeneracy) and give more precise information on the oscillation parameters. A primary purpose of this investigation is to establish the parameter space regions where CP violation can be discovered and where the mass hierarchy can be determined. It is found that such measurements, even with the augmented flux from proton driver upgrades, demand sin^2 (2 theta13) be fairly large and in the range where it is measurable by reactor experiments.Comment: 25 pages, 13 figures, fixed typos; 25 pages, 13 figures, updated content, references; previous 22 pages, 12 figures, added references and fixed reference display proble

Indian Capital Control Liberalization: Evidence from NDF Markets

This paper analyzes the extent to which the effectiveness of capital controls in India have changed over time. We begin by calculating deviations from covered interest parity utilizing data from the 3-month offshore non-deliverable rupiah forward (NDF) market. Then, using the self-exciting threshold autoregression methodology, we estimate a no-arbitrage band whose boundaries are determined by transactions costs and by the effectiveness of capital controls. Inside the bands, small deviations from CIP follow a random walk process. Outside the bands, profitable arbitrage opportunities exist and we estimate an adjustment process back towards the boundaries. We identify three distinct periods, and estimate the model over each sub-sample in order to capture the de facto effect of changes in capital controls over time. We find that de facto capital control barriers: (1) are asymmetric over inflows and outflows, (2) have changed over time from primarily restricting outflows to effectively restricting inflows; (3) arbitrage activity closes deviations from CIP when the threshold boundaries are exceeded in all sub-samples. In recent years, capital controls have been more symmetric over capital inflows and outflows and the deviations from CIP outside the boundaries are closed more quickly.capital controls; India; arbitrage; non-deliverable forward markets; covered interest parity; self-exciting autoregressive threshold model

Indian Capital Control Liberalization : Evidence from NDF Markets

The Indian government has taken a number of incremental measures to liberalise legal and administrative impediments to international capital movements in recent years. This paper analyses the extent to which the effectiveness of capital controls in India, measured by the domestic less net foreign interest rate differential (deviations from covered interest rate parity) have changed over time. We utilise the 3-month offshore non-deliverable forward (NDF) market to measure the effective foreign interest rate (implied NDF yield). Using the self exciting threshold autoregression (SETAR) methodology, we estimate a no-arbitrage bandwidth whose boundaries are determined by transactions costs and capital controls. Inside of the bands, small deviations from CIP follow a random walk process. Outside the bands, profitable arbitrage opportunities exist and we estimate an adjustment process back towards the boundaries. We allow for asymmetric boundaries and asymmetric speeds of adjustment (above and below the band thresholds), which may vary depending on how arbitrage activity is constrained by capital controls. We test for structural breaks, identify three distinct periods, and estimate these parameters over each sub-sample in order to capture the de facto effect of changes in capital controls over time. We find that de facto capital control barriers : (1) are asymmetric over inflows and outflows, (2) have changed over time from primarily restricting outflows to effectively restricting inflows (measured by bandwidths and positions); (3) arbitrage activity closes deviations from CIP when the threshold boundaries are exceeded in all sub-samples. In recent years, capital controls have been more symmetric over capital inflows and outflows and the deviations from CIP outside the boundaries are closed more quickly.capital controls, non-deliverable forward markets, India, economic reform, liberalization

Indian capital control liberalization: Evidence from NDF markets.

The Indian government has taken a number of incremental measures to liberalise legal and administrative impediments to international capital movements in recent years. This paper analyses the extent to which the effectiveness of capital controls in India, measured by the domestic less net foreign interest rate differential (deviations from covered interest rate parity) have changed over time. We utilise the 3-month offshore non-deliverable forward (NDF) market to measure the effective foreign interest rate (implied NDF yield). Using the self exciting threshold autoregression (SETAR) methodology, we estimate a no-arbitrage bandwidth whose boundaries are determined by transactions costs and capital controls. Inside of the bands, small deviations from CIP follow a random walk process. Outside the bands, profitable arbitrage opportunities exist and we estimate an adjustment process back towards the boundaries. We allow for asymmetric boundaries and asymmetric speeds of adjustment (above and below the band thresholds), which may vary depending on how arbitrage activity is constrained by capital controls. We test for structural breaks, identify three distinct periods, and estimate these parameters over each sub-sample in order to capture the de facto effect of changes in capital controls over time. We find that de facto capital control barriers: (1) are asymmetric over inflows and outflows, (2) have changed over time from primarily restricting outflows to effectively restricting inflows (measured by bandwidths and positions); (3) arbitrage activity closes deviations from CIP when the threshold boundaries are exceeded in all sub-samples. In recent years, capital controls have been more symmetric over capital inflows and outflows and the deviations from CIP outside the boundaries are closed more quickly.

Temporal changes in allele frequencies in two reciprocally selected maize populations

The effects of breeding on allele frequency changes at 82 restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) loci were examined in two maize (Zea mays L.) populations undergoing reciprocal recurrent selection, Iowa Stiff Stalk Synthetic and Iowa Corn Borer Synthetic #1. After 12 cycles of selection, approximately 30% of the alleles were extinct and 10% near fixation in each population. A test of selective neutrality identified several loci in each population whose allele frequency changes cannot be explained by genetic drift; interpopulation mean expected heterozygosity increased for that subset of 28 loci but not for the remaining 54 loci. Mean expected heterozygosity within the two subpopulations decreased 39%, while the between-population component of genetic variation increased from 0.5% to 33.4% of the total. Effective population size is a key parameter for discerning allele frequency changes due to genetic drift versus those resulting from selection and genetic hitchhiking. Empirical estimates of effective population size for each population were within the range predicted by the breeding method

Molecular Genetic Diversity after Reciprocal Recurrent Selection in BSSS and BSCB1 Maize Populations

Iowa Stiff Stalk Synthetic (BSSS) and Iowa Corn Borer Synthetic #1 (BSCB1) are undergoing reciprocal recurrent selection as part of Iowa\u27s Federal-State maize (Zea mays L.) breeding program. This study focused on molecular genetic variation in BSSS(R) and BSCBI(R) cycle 0 (CO) and cycle 12 (C12) populations, as well as the inbred progenitor lines (P) used to synthesize BSSS and BSCB1. The objectives were to quantify amounts of genetic variation within populations, to estimate what proportion remained after selection, and to compare genetic diversities between BSSS and BSCB1 populations. Genotypic data for 82 restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) loci were collected from 100 randomly sampled individuals from each CO and C12 population, 16 BSSS(R) progenitors, and 12 BSCBI(R) progenitors. Progenitor lines were highly homozygous as expected. No single progenitor made excessive genetic contributions to CO or C12. The BSSS and BSCB1 progenitor populations were initially genetically similar (Nei\u27s genetic distance = 0.07). After 12 cycles of selection, they substantially diverged (Nei\u27s distance = 0.66). Gene diversity (expected heterozygosity under random mating) across progenitor populations was very broad (mean gene diversity = 0.6) and remained at that level to C12. Within both populations, the polymorphism level decreased from about 99 to 75%, and gene diversity decreased from about 0.6 to 0.3 between P and C12. The mean number of alleles per locus dropped from about four to less than three. Assuming an effective population size as the mean number of selected S1 lines over 12 cycles, the observed loss of variation was consistent with theoretical expectations resulting from genetic drift of neutral alleles

Polygenic risk for schizophrenia and season of birth within the UK Biobank cohort

Background: There is strong evidence that people born in winter and in spring have a small increased risk of schizophrenia. As this ‘season of birth’ effect underpins some of the most influential hypotheses concerning potentially modifiable risk exposures, it is important to exclude other possible explanations for the phenomenon. Methods: Here we sought to determine whether the season of birth effect reflects gene-environment confounding rather than a pathogenic process indexing environmental exposure. We directly measured, in 136 538 participants from the UK Biobank (UKBB), the burdens of common schizophrenia risk alleles and of copy number variants known to increase the risk for the disorder, and tested whether these were correlated with a season of birth. Results: Neither genetic measure was associated with season or month of birth within the UKBB sample. Conclusions: As our study was highly powered to detect small effects, we conclude that the season of birth effect in schizophrenia reflects a true pathogenic effect of environmental exposure

A Flexible Laboratory Environment Supporting Honeypot Deployment for Teaching Real-World Cybersecurity Skills

In the practical study of cybersecurity, students benefit greatly from having full control of physical equipment and services. However, this presents far too great a risk to security to be permitted on university campus networks. This paper describes an approach, used successfully at Northumbria University, in which students have control of an off-campus network laboratory, with a dedicated connection to the Internet. The laboratory is flexible enough to allow the teaching of general purpose networking and operating systems courses, while also supporting the teaching of cybersecurity through the safe integration of honeypot devices. In addition, the paper gives an analysis of honeypot architectures and presents two in detail. One of these offers students the opportunity to study cybersecurity attacks and defences at very low cost. It has been developed as a stand-alone device that also can be integrated safely into the laboratory environment for the study of more complex scenarios. The main contributions of this paper are the design and implementation of: an off-campus, physical network laboratory; a small, low-cost, configurable platform for use as a “lightweight” honeypot; and a laboratory-based, multi-user honeypot for large-scale, concurrent, cybersecurity experiments. The paper outlines how the laboratory environment has been successfully deployed within a university setting to support the teaching and learning of cybersecurity. It highlights the type of experiments and projects that have been supported and can be supported in the future