Future change of summer hypoxia in coastal California Current

The occurrences of summer hypoxia in coastal California Current can significantly affect the benthic and pelagic habitat and lead to complex ecosystem changes. Model-simulated hypoxia in this region is strongly spatially heterogeneous, and its future changes show uncertainties depending on the model used. Here, we used an ensemble of the new generation Earth system models to examine the present-day and future changes of summer hypoxia in this region. We applied model-specific thresholds combined with empirical bias adjustments of the dissolved oxygen variance to identify hypoxia. We found that, although simulated dissolved oxygen in the subsurface varies across the models both in mean state and variability, after necessary bias adjustments, the ensemble shows reasonable hypoxia frequency compared with a hindcast in terms of spatial distribution and average frequency in the coastal region. The models project increases in hypoxia frequency under warming, which is in agreement with deoxygenation projected consistently across the models for the coastal California Current. This work demonstrated a practical approach of using the multi-model ensemble for regional studies while presenting methodology limitations and gaps in observations and models to improve these limitations

Seasonal-to-interannual prediction of North American coastal marine ecosystems: forecast methods, mechanisms of predictability, and priority developments

© The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Jacox, M. G., Alexander, M. A., Siedlecki, S., Chen, K., Kwon, Y., Brodie, S., Ortiz, I., Tommasi, D., Widlansky, M. J., Barrie, D., Capotondi, A., Cheng, W., Di Lorenzo, E., Edwards, C., Fiechter, J., Fratantoni, P., Hazen, E. L., Hermann, A. J., Kumar, A., Miller, A. J., Pirhalla, D., Buil, M. P., Ray, S., Sheridan, S. C., Subramanian, A., Thompson, P., Thorne, L., Annamalai, H., Aydin, K., Bograd, S. J., Griffis, R. B., Kearney, K., Kim, H., Mariotti, A., Merrifield, M., & Rykaczewski, R. Seasonal-to-interannual prediction of North American coastal marine ecosystems: forecast methods, mechanisms of predictability, and priority developments. Progress in Oceanography, 183, (2020): 102307, doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2020.102307.Marine ecosystem forecasting is an area of active research and rapid development. Promise has been shown for skillful prediction of physical, biogeochemical, and ecological variables on a range of timescales, suggesting potential for forecasts to aid in the management of living marine resources and coastal communities. However, the mechanisms underlying forecast skill in marine ecosystems are often poorly understood, and many forecasts, especially for biological variables, rely on empirical statistical relationships developed from historical observations. Here, we review statistical and dynamical marine ecosystem forecasting methods and highlight examples of their application along U.S. coastlines for seasonal-to-interannual (1–24 month) prediction of properties ranging from coastal sea level to marine top predator distributions. We then describe known mechanisms governing marine ecosystem predictability and how they have been used in forecasts to date. These mechanisms include physical atmospheric and oceanic processes, biogeochemical and ecological responses to physical forcing, and intrinsic characteristics of species themselves. In reviewing the state of the knowledge on forecasting techniques and mechanisms underlying marine ecosystem predictability, we aim to facilitate forecast development and uptake by (i) identifying methods and processes that can be exploited for development of skillful regional forecasts, (ii) informing priorities for forecast development and verification, and (iii) improving understanding of conditional forecast skill (i.e., a priori knowledge of whether a forecast is likely to be skillful). While we focus primarily on coastal marine ecosystems surrounding North America (and the U.S. in particular), we detail forecast methods, physical and biological mechanisms, and priority developments that are globally relevant.This study was supported by the NOAA Climate Program Office’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program through grants NA17OAR4310108, NA17OAR4310112, NA17OAR4310111, NA17OAR4310110, NA17OAR4310109, NA17OAR4310104, NA17OAR4310106, and NA17OAR4310113. This paper is a product of the NOAA/MAPP Marine Prediction Task Force

Heavy Quarkonium Production in Z Decays

We report measurements of the inclusive production of heavy quarkonium states in $\mathrm {Z}$ decays based on the analysis of 3.6 million hadronic events collected by the L3 detector at LEP. The measurement of inclusive J production and an improved $95\%$ confidence level upper limit on $\Upsilon$ production are presented. In addition, two independent measurements of the ratio, $f_{\mathrm{p}}$, of prompt J mesons to those from B decay are made using two different isolation cuts to separate prompt J mesons from J mesons produced in the decays of b hadrons. The results are: % \begin{eqnarray} \mathrm{Br}(\mathrm{Z} \rightarrow \mathrm{J} + \mathrm{X}) & = & (3.21 \pm 0.21 \; \mathrm{(stat.)} \; ^{+ 0.19}_{- 0.28} \; \mathrm{(sys.)} ) \times 10^{-3} \; , \nonumber \\ \mathrm{Br}(\mathrm {Z} \rightarrow \Upsilon(\mathrm{1S} + X) & < & 4.4 \times 10^{-5} \; , \nonumber \\ %% f_{\mathrm{p}} & = & (7.1 \pm 2.1 \; \mathrm{(stat.)} \; \pm 1.2 \; \mathrm{(sys.)} \; ^{+1.5}_{-0.8} \;\mathrm{(theo.)} ) \times 10^{-2} \; . \nonumbe

Study of Neutral-Current Four-Fermion and ZZ Production in e+e−e^+ e^- Collisions at s\sqrt{s}= 183 GeV

Study of Neutral--Current Four--Fermion and ZZ \\ Production in $\rm e^+ e^-$ Collisions at $\rm \sqrt{s}=$ 183 GeV A study of neutral--current four--fermion processes is performed using a data sample corresponding to 55.3~pb$^{-1}$ of integrated luminosity collected by the L3 detector at LEP at an average centre--of--mass energy of 183~\GeV. The neutral--current four--fermion cross sections for final states with a pair of charged leptons plus jets and with four charged leptons are measured to be consistent with the Standard Model predictions. Events with fermion pair masses close to the Z boson mass are selected in all observable final states and the ZZ production cross section is measured to be %\begin{center} $\rm \sigma_{ZZ} = 0.30 ^{+0.22\,\,+0.07}_{-0.16\,\,-0.03}\,\mathrm{pb},$ %\end{center} in agreement with the Standard Model expectation. No evidence for the existence of anomalous triple gauge boson ZZZ and ZZ$\gamma$ couplings is found and limits on these couplings are set

Search for new physics phenomena in fermion-pair production at LEP

The measurements of hadron and lepton--pair production cross sections and lepton--pair forward--backward asymmetries performed with the L3 detector at centre--of--mass energies between 130 GeV and 172 GeV are used to search for new physics phenomena. New physics effects involving four fermion vertices -- contact interactions -- are looked for in all channels. For hadron production the exchange of virtual leptoquarks and scalar quarks is studied. No evidence for deviations from the Standard Model expectations is found. Lower limits on the scale $\Lambda$ of contact interactions in the range 1.2 -- 7.1 TeV are obtained at the 95\% confidence level for various models. Upper limits on the coupling strengths of leptoquarks and scalar quarks are derived

Inclusive Charm Production in Two-Photon Collisions at LEP

The cross section of charm production in $\mathrm{\gamma \gamma}$ collisions $\mathrm{\sigma (e^+e^- \rightarrow e^+e^-c\bar{c} X)}$ is measured at LEP with the L3 detector at centre of mass energies from 91 GeV to 183 GeV. Charmed hadrons are identified by electrons and muons from semi-leptonic decays. The direct process $\mathrm{\gamma \gamma \rightarrow c \bar{c}}$ is found to be insufficient to describe the data. The measured cross section values and event distributions require contributions from resolved processes, which are sensitive to the gluon density in the photon

Search for charged Higgs bosons in e+e−e^+ e^- collisions at centre-of-mass energies between 130 and 183 GeV

A search for pair-produced charged Higgs bosons is performed with the L3 detector at LEP using data collected at centre-of-mass energies from \mbox{130 to 183 \GeV{}}, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 88.3 \pb. The Higgs decays into a charm and a strange quark or into a tau lepton and its associated neutrino are considered. The observed candidates are consistent with the expectations from Standard Model background processes. A lower limit of 57.5 \GeV{} on the charged Higgs mass is derived at 95\% CL, independent of the decay branching ratio \mathrm{Br(H^\pm\ra \tau\nu)}

Measurement of the inclusive charmless semileptonic branching fraction of beauty hadrons and a determination of |VubV_{ub}| at LEP

A measurement of the inclusive charmless semileptonic branching fraction of beauty hadrons, $\mathrm{b}\rightarrow\mathrm{X}_\mathrm{u }\ell\nu$, has been performed using almost two million hadronic Z decays collected by the L3 experiment at LEP, yielding the result: \begin{displaymath} \mathrm{Br}(\mathrm{b}\rightarrow\mathrm{X}_\mathr m{u}\ell\nu) = (3.3 \pm 1.0 \pm 1.7)\times 10^{-3}. \end{displaymath} The first uncertainty is statistical and the second is systematic. The modulus of the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix element $\mathrm{V_{ub}}$ extracted from this measurement is: \begin{displaymath} |\mathrm{V_{ub}}| = (6.0\, ^{+0.8}_{-1.0} \, ^{+1.4}_{-1.9} \pm 0.2)\times 10^{-3}, \end{displaymath} where the uncertainties are statistical, systematic and theoretical, respectively

Determination of the number of light neutrino species from single photon production at LEP

A determination of the number of light neutrino families performed by measuring the cross section of single photon production in \ee\ collision near the \Zo\ resonance is reported. From an integrated luminosity of $100~\mathrm{pb^{-1}}$, collected during the years 1991--94, we have observed 2091 single photon candidates with an energy above 1~\GeV\ in the polar angular region $45^\circ < \theta_\gamma < 135^\circ$. From a maximum likelihood fit to the single photon cross section, the \Zo\ decay width into invisible particles is measured to be \Ginv = 498 \pm 12 \mathrm{(stat)} \pm 12 \mathrm{(sys)~MeV}. Using the Standard Model couplings of neutrinos to the \Zo, the number of light neutrino species is determined to be $N_\nu = 2.98 \pm 0.07 (\mathrm{stat}) \pm 0.07 (\mathrm{sys}).

Measurement of the effective weak mixing angle by jet-charge asymmetry in hadronic decays of the Z boson

The coupling of the Z boson to quarks is studied in a sample of about 3.5 million hadronic Z decays collected by the L3 experiment at LEP from 1991 to 1995. The forward-backward quark charge asymmet ry is measured by means of a jet charge technique. From the measured asymmetries, the effective weak mixing angle is determined to be \begin{center} $\STE = 0.2327 \pm 0.0012(\mbox{\emph{stat.}} ) \pm 0.0013(\mbox{\emph{syst.}}).