Universal fluctuations in growth dynamics of economic systems

The growth of business firms is an example of a system of complex interacting units that resembles complex interacting systems in nature such as earthquakes. Remarkably, work in econophysics has provided evidence that the statistical properties of the growth of business firms follow the same sorts of power laws that characterize physical systems near their critical points. Given how economies change over time, whether these statistical properties are persistent, robust, and universal like those of physical systems remains an open question. Here, we show that the scaling properties of firm growth previously demonstrated for publicly-traded U.S. manufacturing firms from 1974 to 1993 apply to the same sorts of firms from 1993 to 2015, to firms in other broad sectors (such as materials), and to firms in new sectors (such as Internet services). We measure virtually the same scaling exponent for manufacturing for the 1993 to 2015 period as for the 1974 to 1993 period and virtually the same scaling exponent for other sectors as for manufacturing. Furthermore, we show that fluctuations of the growth rate for new industries self-organize into a power law over relatively short time scales.Comment: 15 pages, 7 figure

Power Law Scaling for a System of Interacting Units with Complex Internal Structure

We study the dynamics of a system composed of interacting units each with a complex internal structure comprising many subunits. We consider the case in which each subunit grows in a multiplicative manner. We propose a model for such systems in which the interaction among the units is treated in a mean field approximation and the interaction among subunits is nonlinear. To test the model, we identify a large data base spanning 20 years, and find that the model correctly predicts a variety of empirical results.Comment: 4 pages with 4 postscript figures (uses Revtex 3.1, Latex2e, multicol.sty, epsf.sty and rotate.sty). Submitted to PR

Prospective Evaluation of TMVR for Failed Surgical Annuloplasty Rings: MITRAL Trial Valve-in-Ring Arm 1-Year Outcomes

OBJECTIVES: The authors report 1-year outcomes of high-risk patients with failed surgical annuloplasty rings undergoing transseptal mitral valve-in-ring (MViR) with the SAPIEN 3 aortic transcatheter heart valve (THV). BACKGROUND: The MITRAL (Mitral Implantation of Transcatheter Valves) trial is the first prospective study evaluating transseptal MViR with the SAPIEN 3 aortic THV in high-risk patients with failed surgical annuloplasty rings. METHODS: Prospective enrollment of high-risk patients with symptomatic moderate to severe or severe mitral regurgitation (MR) or severe mitral stenosis and failed annuloplasty rings at 13 U.S. sites. The primary safety endpoint was technical success. The primary THV performance endpoint was absence of MR grade ≥2+ or mean mitral valve gradient ≥10 mm Hg (30 days and 1 year). Secondary endpoints included procedural success and all-cause mortality (30 days and 1 year). RESULTS: Thirty patients were enrolled between January 2016 and October 2017 (median age 71.5 years [interquartile range: 67.0 to 76.8 years], 36.7% women, median Society of Thoracic Surgeons score 7.6% [interquartile range: 5.1% to 11.8%], 76.7% in New York Heart Association functional class III or IV). Technical success was 66.7% (driven primarily by need for a second valve in 6 patients). There was no intraprocedural mortality or conversion to surgery. The primary performance endpoint was achieved in 85.7% of survivors at 30 days (24 of 28) and 89.5% of patients alive at 1 year with echocardiographic data available (17 of 19). All-cause mortality at 30 days was 6.7% and at 1 year was 23.3%. Among survivors at 1-year follow-up, 84.2% were in New York Heart Association functional class I or II, the median mean mitral valve gradient was 6.0 mm Hg (interquartile range: 4.7 to 7.3 mm Hg), and all had ≤1+ MR. CONCLUSIONS: Transseptal MViR was associated with a 30-day mortality rate lower than predicted by the Society of Thoracic Surgeons score. At 1 year, transseptal MViR was associated with symptom improvement and stable THV performance

Prospective Evaluation of Transseptal TMVR for Failed Surgical Bioprostheses: MITRAL Trial Valve-in-Valve Arm 1-Year Outcomes

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to assess 1-year clinical outcomes among high-risk patients with failed surgical mitral bioprostheses who underwent transseptal mitral valve-in-valve (MViV) with the SAPIEN 3 aortic transcatheter heart valve (THV) in the MITRAL (Mitral Implantation of Transcatheter Valves) trial. BACKGROUND: The MITRAL trial is the first prospective study evaluating transseptal MViV with the SAPIEN 3 aortic THV in high-risk patients with failed surgical mitral bioprostheses. METHODS: High-risk patients with symptomatic moderate to severe or severe mitral regurgitation (MR) or severe mitral stenosis due to failed surgical mitral bioprostheses were prospectively enrolled. The primary safety endpoint was technical success. The primary THV performance endpoint was absence of MR grade ≥2+ or mean mitral valve gradient ≥10 mm Hg (30 days and 1 year). Secondary endpoints included procedural success and all-cause mortality (30 days and 1 year). RESULTS: Thirty patients were enrolled between July 2016 and October 2017 (median age 77.5 years [interquartile range (IQR): 70.3 to 82.8 years], 63.3% women, median Society of Thoracic Surgeons score 9.4% [IQR: 5.8% to 12.0%], 80% in New York Heart Association functional class III or IV). The technical success rate was 100%. The primary performance endpoint in survivors was achieved in 96.6% (28 of 29) at 30 days and 82.8% (24 of 29) at 1 year. Thirty-day all-cause mortality was 3.3% and was unchanged at 1 year. The only death was due to airway obstruction after swallowing several pills simultaneously 29 days post-MViV. At 1-year follow-up, 89.3% of patients were in New York Heart Association functional class I or II, the median mean mitral valve gradient was 6.6 mm Hg (interquartile range: 5.5 to 8.9 mm Hg), and all patients had MR grade ≤1+. CONCLUSIONS: Transseptal MViV in high-risk patients was associated with 100% technical success, low procedural complication rates, and very low mortality at 1 year. The vast majority of patients experienced significant symptom alleviation, and THV performance remained stable at 1 year

The DOE E3SM Coupled Model Version 1: Overview and Evaluation at Standard Resolution

This work documents the first version of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) new Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1). We focus on the standard resolution of the fully coupled physical model designed to address DOE mission-relevant water cycle questions. Its components include atmosphere and land (110-km grid spacing), ocean and sea ice (60 km in the midlatitudes and 30 km at the equator and poles), and river transport (55 km) models. This base configuration will also serve as a foundation for additional configurations exploring higher horizontal resolution as well as augmented capabilities in the form of biogeochemistry and cryosphere configurations. The performance of E3SMv1 is evaluated by means of a standard set of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima simulations consisting of a long preindustrial control, historical simulations (ensembles of fully coupled and prescribed SSTs) as well as idealized CO2 forcing simulations. The model performs well overall with biases typical of other CMIP-class models, although the simulated Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is weaker than many CMIP-class models. While the E3SMv1 historical ensemble captures the bulk of the observed warming between preindustrial (1850) and present day, the trajectory of the warming diverges from observations in the second half of the twentieth century with a period of delayed warming followed by an excessive warming trend. Using a two-layer energy balance model, we attribute this divergence to the model’s strong aerosol-related effective radiative forcing (ERFari+aci = -1.65 W/m2) and high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS = 5.3 K).Plain Language SummaryThe U.S. Department of Energy funded the development of a new state-of-the-art Earth system model for research and applications relevant to its mission. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) consists of five interacting components for the global atmosphere, land surface, ocean, sea ice, and rivers. Three of these components (ocean, sea ice, and river) are new and have not been coupled into an Earth system model previously. The atmosphere and land surface components were created by extending existing components part of the Community Earth System Model, Version 1. E3SMv1’s capabilities are demonstrated by performing a set of standardized simulation experiments described by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima protocol at standard horizontal spatial resolution of approximately 1° latitude and longitude. The model reproduces global and regional climate features well compared to observations. Simulated warming between 1850 and 2015 matches observations, but the model is too cold by about 0.5 °C between 1960 and 1990 and later warms at a rate greater than observed. A thermodynamic analysis of the model’s response to greenhouse gas and aerosol radiative affects may explain the reasons for the discrepancy.Key PointsThis work documents E3SMv1, the first version of the U.S. DOE Energy Exascale Earth System ModelThe performance of E3SMv1 is documented with a set of standard CMIP6 DECK and historical simulations comprising nearly 3,000 yearsE3SMv1 has a high equilibrium climate sensitivity (5.3 K) and strong aerosol-related effective radiative forcing (-1.65 W/m2)Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/151288/1/jame20860_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/151288/2/jame20860.pd