Bayesian analysis in applications of hierarchical models: Issues and methods

In applications of hierarchical models (HMs), a potential weakness of empirical Bayes estimation approaches is that they do not to take into account uncertainty in the estimation of the variance components . One possible solution entails employing a fully Bayesian approach, which involves specifying a prior probability distribution for the variance components and then integrating over the variance components as well as other unknowns in the HM to obtain a marginal posterior distribution of interest (see, e.g., Draper, 1995

Site-Selective Excitation And Polarized Absorption Spectra Of Nd3+ In Sr-5(Po4)(3)F And Ca-5(Po4)(3)F

Polarized absorption and fluorescence spectra were analyzed to establish individual energy (Stark) levels of Nd3+ ions in host crystals of Sr-5(PO4)(3)F (SFAP) and Ca-5(PO4)(3)F (FAP). Site-selective excitation and fluorescence facilitated differentiation between Nd3+ ions in emitting sites-associated with 1.06 mu m stimulated emission, and nonemitting Nd3+ ions in other sites. Measurements were made on samples containing different concentrations of Nd3+ at 4 K and higher temperatures. Substitution of Nd3+ for Sr2+ or Ca2+ was accompanied by passive charge compensation during crystal growth. Crystal-field splitting calculations were performed according to site for Stark levels of Nd3+ ions identified spectroscopically. We obtained a final set of crystal-field parameters B-nm for Nd3+ ions in fluorescing sites with a rms, deviation of 7 cm(-1) (52 levels in Nd:SFAP) and 8 cm(-1) (59 levels in Nd:FAP). For one of the nonemitting sites in Nd:FAP we obtained a final set of B-nm parameters which gave a rms deviation of 6 cm(-1) between 46 experimental and calculated levels

Site-selective excitation and polarized absorption and emission spectra of trivalent thulium and erbium in strontium fluorapatite

Polarized fluorescence spectra produced by site-selective excitation, and conventional polarized absorption spectra were obtained for Tm3+ and Er3+ ions individually incorporated into single crystals of strontium fluorapatite, Sr-5(PO4)(3)F, also known as SFAP. Substitution of the trivalent rare earth ion for divalent strontium was achieved by passive charge compensation during Czochralski growth of the fluorapatite crystals. Spectra were obtained between 1780 and 345 nm at temperatures from 4 K to room temperature on crystals having the hexagonal structure [P6(3)/m(C-6h(2))]. The polarized fluorescence spectra due to transitions from multiplet manifolds of Tm3+(4f(12)), including D-1(2), (1)G(4), and H-3(4) to manifolds H-3(6) (the ground-state manifold), F-3(4), H-3(5), H-3(4), and F-3(3) were analyzed for the details of the crystal-field splitting of the manifolds. Fluorescence Lifetimes were measured for Tm3+ transitions from D-1(2), (1)G(4), and H-3(4) at room temperature and from (1)G(4) at 16 K. Results of the analysis indicate that the majority of Tm3+ ions occupy sites having C-s symmetry. A point-charge lattice-sum calculation was made in which the crystal-field components, A(nm), were determined assuming that trivalent thulium replaces divalent strontium in the metal site having C-s symmetry. Results support the conclusion that the nearest-neighbor fluoride (F-) is replaced by divalent oxygen (O2-), thus preserving overall charge neutrality and local symmetry. Crystal-field splitting calculations predict energy levels in agreement with results obtained from an analysis of the experimental data. By varying the crystal-field parameters, B-nm, we obtained a rms difference of 7 cm(-1) between 43 calculated and experimental Stark levels for Tm3+(4f(12)) in Tm:SFAP. Absorption and fluorescence spectra are also reported for Er3+ ions in Er:SFAP. Measurement of the temporal decay of the room temperature fluorescence from the I-4(11/2) and I-4(13/2) manifolds yielded fluorescence lifetimes of 230+/-20 mu s and 8.9+/-0.1 ms, respectively. The experimental Stark levels obtained from an analysis of the spectroscopic data were compared with a crystal-field splitting calculation. The initial set of B-nm parameters for Er3+(4f(11)) was established from the three-parameter theory and the final set of B-nm parameters obtained for Tm3+(4f(12)) in Tm:SFAP. The best overall agreement between calculated and experimental Stark levels is 8 cm(-1) for 48 Stark levels, representing 12 observed multiplet manifolds of Er3+(4f(11)) in Er:SFAP

Optical Magnetometry

Some of the most sensitive methods of measuring magnetic fields utilize interactions of resonant light with atomic vapor. Recent developments in this vibrant field are improving magnetometers in many traditional areas such as measurement of geomagnetic anomalies and magnetic fields in space, and are opening the door to new ones, including, dynamical measurements of bio-magnetic fields, detection of nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), magnetic-resonance imaging (MRI), inertial-rotation sensing, magnetic microscopy with cold atoms, and tests of fundamental symmetries of Nature.Comment: 11 pages; 4 figures; submitted to Nature Physic

"Older Adults with ASD: The Consequences of Aging." Insights from a series of special interest group meetings held at the International Society for Autism Research 2016-2017

A special interest group (SIG) entitled "Older Adults with ASD: The Consequences of Aging" was held at the International Society for Autism Research (INSAR) annual meetings in 2016 and 2017. The SIG and subsequent meetings brought together, for the first time, international delegates who were members of the autistic community, researchers, practitioners and service providers. Based on aging autism research that is already underway in UK, Europe, Australia and North America, discussions focussed on conceptualising the parameters of aging when referring to autism, and the measures that are appropriate to use with older adults when considering diagnostic assessment, cognitive factors and quality of life in older age. Thus, the aim of this SIG was to progress the research agenda on current and future directions for autism research in the context of aging. A global issue on how to define 'aging' when referring to ASD was at the forefront of discussions. The ‘aging’ concept can in principle refer to all developmental transitions. However, in this paper we focus on the cognitive and physical changes that take place from mid-life onwards. Accordingly, it was agreed that aging and ASD research should focus on adults over the age of 50 years, given the high rates of co-occurring physical and mental health concerns and increased risk of premature death in some individuals. Moreover, very little is known about the cognitive change, care needs and outcomes of autistic adults beyond this age. Discussions on the topics of diagnostic and cognitive assessments, and of quality of life and well-being were explored through shared knowledge about which measures are currently being used and which background questions should be asked to obtain comprehensive and informative developmental and medical histories. Accordingly, a survey was completed by SIG delegates who were representatives of international research groups across four continents, and who are currently conducting studies with older autistic adults. Considerable overlap was identified across different research groups in measures of both autism and quality of life, which pointed to combining data and shared learnings as the logical next step. Regarding the background questions that were asked, the different research groups covered similar topics but the groups differed in the way these questions were formulated when working with autistic adults across a range of cognitive abilities. It became clear that continued input from individuals on the autism spectrum is important to ensure that questionnaires used in ongoing and future are accessible and understandable for people across the whole autistic spectrum, including those with limited verbal abilities

The helium and carbon isotope characteristics of the Andean Convergent Margin

© The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Barry, P. H., De Moor, J. M., Chiodi, A., Aguilera, F., Hudak, M. R., Bekaert, D. V., Turner, S. J., Curtice, J., Seltzer, A. M., Jessen, G. L., Osses, E., Blamey, J. M., Amenabar, M. J., Selci, M., Cascone, M., Bastianoni, A., Nakagawa, M., Filipovich, R., Bustos, E., Schrenk, M. O. , Buongiorno, J., Ramírez, C. J., Rogers, T. J., Lloyd, K. G. & Giovannelli, D. The helium and carbon isotope characteristics of the Andean Convergent Margin. Frontiers in Earth Science, 10, (2022): 897267, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2022.897267.Subduction zones represent the interface between Earth’s interior (crust and mantle) and exterior (atmosphere and oceans), where carbon and other volatile elements are actively cycled between Earth reservoirs by plate tectonics. Helium is a sensitive tracer of volatile sources and can be used to deconvolute mantle and crustal sources in arcs; however it is not thought to be recycled into the mantle by subduction processes. In contrast, carbon is readily recycled, mostly in the form of carbon-rich sediments, and can thus be used to understand volatile delivery via subduction. Further, carbon is chemically-reactive and isotope fractionation can be used to determine the main processes controlling volatile movements within arc systems. Here, we report helium isotope and abundance data for 42 deeply-sourced fluid and gas samples from the Central Volcanic Zone (CVZ) and Southern Volcanic Zone (SVZ) of the Andean Convergent Margin (ACM). Data are used to assess the influence of subduction parameters (e.g., crustal thickness, subduction inputs, and convergence rate) on the composition of volatiles in surface volcanic fluid and gas emissions. He isotopes from the CVZ backarc range from 0.1 to 2.6 RA (n = 23), with the highest values in the Puna and the lowest in the Sub-Andean foreland fold-and-thrust belt. Atmosphere-corrected He isotopes from the SVZ range from 0.7 to 5.0 RA (n = 19). Taken together, these data reveal a clear southeastward increase in 3He/4He, with the highest values (in the SVZ) falling below the nominal range associated with pure upper mantle helium (8 ± 1 RA), approaching the mean He isotope value for arc gases of (5.4 ± 1.9 RA). Notably, the lowest values are found in the CVZ, suggesting more significant crustal inputs (i.e., assimilation of 4He) to the helium budget. The crustal thickness in the CVZ (up to 70 km) is significantly larger than in the SVZ, where it is just ∼40 km. We suggest that crustal thickness exerts a primary control on the extent of fluid-crust interaction, as helium and other volatiles rise through the upper plate in the ACM. We also report carbon isotopes from (n = 11) sites in the CVZ, where δ13C varies between −15.3‰ and −1.2‰ [vs. Vienna Pee Dee Belemnite (VPDB)] and CO2/3He values that vary by over two orders of magnitude (6.9 × 108–1.7 × 1011). In the SVZ, carbon isotope ratios are also reported from (n = 13) sites and vary between −17.2‰ and −4.1‰. CO2/3He values vary by over four orders of magnitude (4.7 × 107–1.7 × 1012). Low δ13C and CO2/3He values are consistent with CO2 removal (e.g., calcite precipitation and gas dissolution) in shallow hydrothermal systems. Carbon isotope fractionation modeling suggests that calcite precipitation occurs at temperatures coincident with the upper temperature limit for life (122°C), suggesting that biology may play a role in C-He systematics of arc-related volcanic fluid and gas emissions.This work was principally supported by the NSF-FRES award 2121637 to PB, KL, and JM. Field work was also supported by award G-2016-7206 from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and the Deep Carbon Observatory to PB, KL, DG, and JM. Additional support came from The National Fund for Scientific and Technological Development of Chile (FONDECYT) Grant 11191138 (The National Research and Development Agency of Chile, ANID Chile), and COPAS COASTAL ANID FB210021 to GJ. DG was partially supported by funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program Grant Agreement No. 948972—COEVOLVE—ERC-2020-STG

Residents' perceptions of a night float system

Background. A Night Float (NF) system has been implemented by many institutions to address increasing concerns about residents' work hours. The purpose of our study was to examine the perceptions of residents towards a NF system. Methods. A 115-item questionnaire was developed to assess residents' perceptions of the NF rotation as compared with a regular call month. The categories included patient care, education, medical errors, and overall satisfaction. Internal Medicine housestaff (post-graduate years 1-3) from three hospital settings at the University of Pittsburgh completed the questionnaire. Results. The response rate was 90% (n = 149). Of these, 74 had completed the NF rotation. The housestaff felt that the quality of patient care was improved because of NF (41% agreed and 18% disagreed). A majority also felt that better care was provided by a rested physician in spite of being less familiar with the patient (46% agreed and 21% disagreed). Most felt that there was less emphasis on education (65%) and more emphasis on service (52%) during NF. Overall, the residents felt more rested during their call months (83%) and strongly supported the 80-hour workweek requirement (77%). Conclusion. Housestaff felt that the overall quality of patient care was improved by a NF system. The perceived improved quality of care by a rested physician coupled with a perceived decrease in the emphasis on education may have significant implications in housestaff training. © 2009 Jasti et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd

Returns to Investors in Stocks in New Industries

We examine the returns to investors in publicly traded stock in new industries. We examine data from the United States on sellers of own-brand personal computers, airlines and airplane manufacturers, automobile manufacturers, railroads, and telegraphs. We find that a relatively small number of companies generate outstanding returns and many firms fail. Firms in new industries typically have high volatility of individual stocks' returns. Compared with indexes for the same period, expected returns of firms are higher for two industries, lower for one industry and roughly the same for two industries. Portfolios of firms in new industries generally have lower Sharpe ratios than the overall market

Can cognitive enhancers reduce the risk of falls in older people with Mild Cognitive Impairment? A protocol for a randomised controlled double blind trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Older adults with cognitive problems have a higher risk of falls, at least twice that of cognitively normal older adults. The consequences of falls in this population are very serious: fallers with cognitive problems suffer more injuries due to falls and are approximately five times more likely to be admitted to institutional care. Although the mechanisms of increased fall risk in cognitively impaired people are not completely understood, it is known that impaired cognitive abilities can reduce attentional resource allocation while walking. Since cognitive enhancers, such as cholinesterase inhibitors, improve attention and executive function, we hypothesise that cognitive enhancers may reduce fall risk in elderly people in the early stages of cognitive decline by improving their gait and balance performance due to an enhancement in attention and executive function.</p> <p>Method/Design</p> <p>Double blinded randomized controlled trial with 6 months follow-up in 140 older individuals with Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI). Participants will be randomized to the intervention group, receiving donepezil, and to the control group, receiving placebo. A block randomization by four and stratification based on fall history will be performed. Primary outcomes are improvements in gait velocity and reduction in gait variability. Secondary outcomes are changes in the balance confidence, balance sway, attention, executive function, and number of falls.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>By characterizing and understanding the effects of cognitive enhancers on fall risk in older adults with cognitive impairments, we will be able to pave the way for a new approach to fall prevention in this population. This RCT study will provide, for the first time, information regarding the effect of a medication designed to augment cognitive functioning have on the risk of falls in older adults with Mild Cognitive Impairment. We expect a significant reduction in the risk of falls in this vulnerable population as a function of the reduced gait variability achieved by treatment with cognitive enhancers. This study may contribute to a new approach to prevent and treat fall risk in seniors in early stages of dementia.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>The protocol for this study is registered with the Clinical Trials Registry, identifier number: NCT00934531 <url>http://www.clinicaltrials.gov</url></p