The Geoscience of Climate and Energy 1. Understanding the Climate System, and the Consequences of Climate Change for the Exploitation and Management of Natural Resources: The View from Banff

A commonly expressed opinion within the earth-science community is that the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has largely ignored paleoclimate data and the methods of research utilized by earth scientists. It can be demonstrated that this is not the case, and one of the objectives of the Gussow–Nuna conference was to present current research in this area. Whereas earth scientists might seem ideally placed to address issues of climate change and energy, many of the beliefs that inform public opinion about global warming and climate change are based on misrepresentations or over-simplifications. Six examples are discussed here, including mis-perceptions about the melting and retreat of glaciers, the true causes of concern about the future fate of polar bears, and myths about petroleum pricing and availability. There is ample space for the earth-science community to add its informed voice to debates about energy and climate change, but, to date, this voice appears to be have been largely ineffective. RÉSUMÉ Dans le milieu des sciences de la Terre on a souvent l’opinion que les travaux du Groupe d'experts intergouverne-mental sur l'évolution du climat (GIEC) ont largement ignoré les données et les méthodes de recherche paléoclimatiques employées par les géoscientiques. On peut prouver que ce n’est pas le cas, et que c’était un des objectifs de la Conférence Gussow− Nuna que de présenter les recherches actuelles en la matière. Bien qu’il semble que les géoscientifiques soient les mieux placés pour traiter de questions de changement climatique et d’énergie, de nombreuses croyances qui modèlent l’opinion publique sur le réchauffement global et le changement climatique reposent sur des informations trompeuses ou des simplifications excessives. Six exemples seront discutées ci-dessous, dont les perceptions erronées sur la fonte et le retrait des glaciers, les véritables motifs d’inquiétude sur le sort des ours blancs, et la saga des prix et de la disponibilité du pétrole. Nombreux sont les forums où les géoscientifiques peuvent faire entendre leur voix compétentes dans les débats sur l’énergie et le changement climatique, mais il semble que cela ait été sans grand effet jusqu’à maintenant

Geoscience of Climate and Energy 10. The Alberta Oil Sands: Developing a New Regime of Environmental Management, 2010–2013

    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12789/geocanj.2013.40.01

Geoscience of Climate and Energy 13. The Environmental Hydrogeology of the Oil Sands, Lower Athabasca Area, Alberta

Shallow fresh groundwater and deep saline groundwater are used together with surface water in the extraction of bitumen from the Athabasca Oil Sands both in the surface mining and in situ operations. However, increasing efficiencies in processing technologies have reduced water use substantially and currently at least 75% of the water used in most operations is recycled water. Much concern has been expressed regarding contamination of surface waters by seepage from tailings ponds, but hydrogeological studies indicate that this is not happening; that seepage capture design is effective. Oil sands mining and in situ project licensing and operation regulations include Environmental Impact Assessments that mandate considerable hydrogeological measurement and monitoring work. However, little of this is independently evaluated for accuracy or synthesized and interpreted for the public. Recent changes in Alberta environmental regulation, including the establishment of the Alberta Environmental Monitoring Management Board (in October 2012) are expected to bring new transparency to environmental management of Oil Sands operations.SOMMAIREOn utilise conjointement des eaux douce de faibles profondeur, des eaux souterraines salines profondes avec des eaux de surface dans l'extraction du bitume des sables bitumineux de l'Athabasca, tant dans le procédé d’extraction in situ qu’en surface.  Par ailleurs, l’accroissement de l'efficacité des technologies de traitement a considérablement réduit la consommation d'eau et, à l’heure actuelle, au moins 75% de l'eau utilisée dans la majorité des opérations est de l'eau recyclée.  Beaucoup d’inquiétude a été exprimée concernant la contamination des eaux de surface par la percolation des eaux des bassins de décantation des résidus, mais des études hydrogéologiques indiquent que ce n'est pas le cas, et que le concept de capture des infiltrations est efficace.  L’octroi de permis d’exploitation ainsi que les procédés d’exploitation des sables bitumineux, par extraction en surface ou in situ, comportent des évaluations d’impact sur les milieux de vie, est assorti de mandats élaborés de mesures hydrologiques et de suivi.  Cela dit, peu de ces mesures sont évaluées de manière indépendante quant à leur exactitude, leur mise en forme et leur interprétation pour le grand public.  Les changements récents dans la réglementation environnementale en Alberta, y compris la mise en place du Alberta Environmental Monitoring Management Board (en Octobre 2012) devraient aboutir à une nouvelle transparence de la gestion environnementale de l'exploitation des sables bitumineux.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12789/geocanj.2013.40.01

Environmental Management of the Alberta Oil Sands: Introduction to the Special Set of Articles

     DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12789/geocanj.2013.40.01

Logan Medallist 3. Making Stratigraphy Respectable: From Stamp Collecting to Astronomical Calibration

The modern science of stratigraphy is founded on a nineteenth-century empirical base – the lithostratigraphy and biostratigraphy of basin-fill successions. This stratigraphic record comprises the most complete data set available for reconstructing the tectonic and climatic history of Earth. However, it has taken two hundred years of evolution of concepts and methods for the science to evolve from what Ernest Rutherford scornfully termed “stamp collecting” to a modern dynamic science characterized by an array of refined methods for documenting geological rates and processes.    Major developments in the evolution of the science of stratigraphy include the growth of an ever-more precise geological time scale, the birth of sedimentology and basin-analysis methods, the influence of plate tectonics and, most importantly, the development, since the late 1970s, of the concepts of sequence stratigraphy. Refinements in these concepts have required the integration of all pre-existing data and methods into a modern, multidisciplinary approach, as exemplified by the current drive to apply the retrodicted history of Earth’s orbital behaviour to the construction of a high-precision ‘astrochronological’ time scale back to at least the Mesozoic record.    At its core, stratigraphy, like much of geology, is a field-based science. The field context of a stratigraphic sample or succession remains the most important starting point for any advanced mapping, analytical or modeling work.RÉSUMÉLa science moderne de la stratigraphie repose sur une base empirique du XIXe siècle, soit la lithostratigraphie et la biostratigraphie de successions de remplissage de bassins sédimentaires.  Cette archive stratigraphique est constituée de la base de données la plus complète permettant de reconstituer l’histoire tectonique et climatique de la Terre.  Cela dit, il aura fallu deux cents ans d’évolution des concepts et des méthodes pour que cette activité passe de l’état de « timbromanie », comme disait dédaigneusement Ernest Rutherford, à l’état de science moderne dynamique caractérisée par sa panoplie de méthodes permettant de documenter les rythmes et processus géologiques.   Les principaux développements de l’évolution de la science de la stratigraphie proviennent de l’élaboration d’une échelle géologique toujours plus précise, l’avènement de la sédimentologie et des méthodes d’analyse des bassins, de l’influence de la tectonique des plaques et, surtout du développement depuis la fin des années 1970, des concepts de stratigraphie séquentielle.  Des raffinements dans ces concepts ont nécessité l'intégration de toutes les données et méthodes existantes dans une approche moderne, multidisciplinaire, comme le montre ce mouvement actuel qui entend utiliser la reconstitution de l’histoire du comportement orbital de la Terre pour l’élaboration d’une échelle temporelle « astrochronologique » de haute précision, remontant jusqu’au Mésozoïque au moins.     Comme pour la géologie, la stratigraphie est une science de terrain.  Le contexte de terrain d’un échantillon stratigraphique ou d’une succession demeure le point de départ le plus important, pour tout travail sérieux de cartographie, d’analyse ou de modélisation

Predictive feedback control and Fitts' law

Fitts’ law is a well established empirical formula, known for encapsulating the “speed-accuracy trade-off”. For discrete, manual movements from a starting location to a target, Fitts’ law relates movement duration to the distance moved and target size. The widespread empirical success of the formula is suggestive of underlying principles of human movement control. There have been previous attempts to relate Fitts’ law to engineering-type control hypotheses and it has been shown that the law is exactly consistent with the closed-loop step-response of a time-delayed, first-order system. Assuming only the operation of closed-loop feedback, either continuous or intermittent, this paper asks whether such feedback should be predictive or not predictive to be consistent with Fitts law. Since Fitts’ law is equivalent to a time delay separated from a first-order system, known control theory implies that the controller must be predictive. A predictive controller moves the time-delay outside the feedback loop such that the closed-loop response can be separated into a time delay and rational function whereas a non- predictive controller retains a state delay within feedback loop which is not consistent with Fitts’ law. Using sufficient parameters, a high-order non-predictive controller could approximately reproduce Fitts’ law. However, such high-order, “non-parametric” controllers are essentially empirical in nature, without physical meaning, and therefore are conceptually inferior to the predictive controller. It is a new insight that using closed-loop feedback, prediction is required to physically explain Fitts’ law. The implication is that prediction is an inherent part of the “speed-accuracy trade-off”

Working from home and intimate partner violence among cis-women during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from a global, cross-sectional study

Background: Intimate partner violence (IPV) may have been exacerbated during the COVID-19 pandemic. This analysis aimed to determine how employment disruption during COVID-19, including working from home, was associated with IPV experience among cis-gendered women. Methods: The International Sexual Health and Reproductive health (I-SHARE) study is a cross-sectional online survey implemented in 30 countries during the pandemic. Samples used convenience, online panel, and population-representative methods. IPV was a pre-specified primary outcome, measured using questions from a validated World Health Organisation instrument. Conditional logistic regression modelling was used to quantify the associations between IPV and changes to employment during COVID-19, adjusted for confounding. Results: 13,416 cis-gender women, aged 18-97, were analysed. One third were from low and middle income countries, and two thirds from high income countries. The majority were heterosexual (82.7%), educated beyond secondary-level (72.4%) and childless (62.7%). During COVID-19 33.9% women worked from home, 14.6% lost employment, and 33.1% continued to work on-site. 15.5% experienced some form of IPV. Women working from home experienced greater odds of IPV than those working on-site (adjusted OR 1.40, 95% CI 1.12-1.74, p = 0.003). This finding was robust independent of sampling strategy and country income. The association was primarily driven by an increase in psychological violence, which was more prevalent than sexual or physical violence. The association was stronger in countries with high gender inequality. Conclusions: Working from home may increase IPV risk globally. Workplaces offering working from home should collaborate with support services and research interventions to strengthen resiliency against IPV