Modelling decadal secular variation with only magnetic diffusion

Secular variation (SV) of Earth’s internal magnetic field is the sum of two contributions, one resulting from core fluid flow and the other from magnetic diffusion. Based on the millenial diffusive timescale of global-scale structures, magnetic diffusion is widely perceived to be too weak to significantly contribute to decadal SV, and indeed is entirely neglected in the commonly adopted end-member of frozen-flux. Such an argument however lacks consideration of radially fine-scaled magnetic structures in the outermost part of the liquid core, whose diffusive timescale is much shorter. Here we consider the opposite end-member model to frozen flux, that of purely diffusive evolution associated with the total absence of fluid flow. Our work is based on a variational formulation, where we seek an optimised full-sphere initial magnetic field structure whose diffusive evolution best fits, over various time windows, a time-dependent magnetic field model. We present models which are regularised based on their magnetic energy, and consider how well they can fit the COV-OBS.x1 ensemble mean using a global error bound based on the standard deviation of the ensemble. within the core. For With the se regularised models, over time periods of up to 30 years, it is possible to fit COV-OBS.x1 within one standard deviation at all times. For time windows up to 102 years we show that our models can fit COV-OBS.x1 when adopting a time-averaged global uncertainty. Our modelling is sensitive only to magnetic structures in approximately the top 10% of the liquid core, and show an increased surface area of reversed flux at depth. The diffusive models recover fundamental characteristics of field evolution including the historical westward drift, the recent acceleration of the North Magnetic Pole and reversed-flux emergence. Based on a global time-averaged residual, our diffusive models fit the evolution of the geomagnetic field comparably, and sometimes better than, frozen-flux models within short time windows

Amantadine for Dyskinesias in Parkinson's Disease: A Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND: Dyskinesias are some of the major motor complications that impair quality of life for patients with Parkinson's disease. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the efficacy of amantadine in Parkinson's disease patients suffering from dyskinesias. METHODS: In this multi-center, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, cross-over trial, 36 patients with Parkinson's disease and dyskinesias were randomized, and 62 interventions, which included amantadine (300 mg/day) or placebo treatment for 27 days, were analyzed. At 15 days after washout, the treatments were crossed over. The primary outcome measure was the changes in the Rush Dyskinesia Rating Scale (RDRS) during each treatment period. The secondary outcome measures were changes in the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale part IVa (UPDRS-IVa, dyskinesias), part IVb (motor fluctuations), and part III (motor function). RESULTS: RDRS improved in 64% and 16% of patients treated with amantadine or placebo, respectively, with significant differences between treatments. The adjusted odds-ratio for improvement by amantadine was 6.7 (95% confidence interval, 1.4 to 31.5). UPDRS-IVa was improved to a significantly greater degree in amantadine-treated patients [mean (SD) of 1.83 (1.56)] compared with placebo-treated patients [0.03 (1.51)]. However, there were no significant effects on UPDRS-IVb or III scores. CONCLUSIONS: Results from the present study demonstrated that amantadine exhibited efficacious effects against dyskinesias in 60-70% of patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: UMIN Clinical Trial Registry UMIN000000780

Forecasting yearly geomagnetic variation through sequential estimation of core low and magnetic diffusion

Earth’s internal magnetic field is generated through motion of the electrically conductive iron-alloy fluid comprising its outer core. Temporal variability of this magnetic field, termed secular variation (SV), results from two processes: one is the interaction between core fluid motion and the magnetic field, the other is magnetic diffusion. As diffusion is widely thought to take place over relatively long, millennial time scales, it is common to disregard it when considering yearly to decadal field changes; in this frozen-flux approximation, core fluid motion may be inferred on the core–mantle boundary (CMB) using observations of SV at Earth’s surface. Such flow models have been used to forecast variation in the magnetic field. However, recent work suggests that diffusion may also contribute significantly to SV on short time scales provided that the radial length scale of the magnetic field structure within the core is sufficiently short. In this work, we introduce a hybrid method to forecast field evolution that considers a model based on both a steady flow and diffusion, in which we adopt a two-step process: first fitting the SV to a steady flow, and then fitting the residual by magnetic diffusion. We assess this approach by hindcasting the evolution for 2010–2015, based on fitting the models to CHAOS-6 using time windows prior to 2010. We find that including diffusion yields a reduction of up to 25% in the global hindcast error at Earth’s surface; at the CMB this error reduction can be in excess of 77%. We show that fitting the model over the shortest window that we consider, 2009–2010, yields the lowest hindcast error. Based on our hindcast tests, we present a candidate model for the SV over 2020–2025 for IGRF-13, fit over the time window 2018.3–2019.3. Our forecasts indicate that over the next decade the axial dipole will continue to decay, reversed-flux patches will increase in both area and intensity, and the north magnetic (dip) pole will continue to migrate towards Siberia

International Geomagnetic Reference Field: the thirteenth generation

In December 2019, the International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy (IAGA) Division V Working Group (V-MOD) adopted the thirteenth generation of the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF). This IGRF updates the previous generation with a definitive main field model for epoch 2015.0, a main field model for epoch 2020.0, and a predictive linear secular variation for 2020.0 to 2025.0. This letter provides the equations defining the IGRF, the spherical harmonic coefficients for this thirteenth generation model, maps of magnetic declination, inclination and total field intensity for the epoch 2020.0, and maps of their predicted rate of change for the 2020.0 to 2025.0 time period

The reversed and normal flux contributions to axial dipole decay for 1880–2015

The axial dipole component of Earth’s internal magnetic field has been weakening since at least 1840, an effect widely believed to be attributed to the evolution of reversed flux patches (RFPs). These are regions on the core-mantle boundary (CMB) where the sign of radial flux deviates from that of the dominant sign of hemispheric radial flux. We study dipole change over the past 135 years using the field models gufm1, COV-OBS.x1 and CHAOS-6; we examine the impact of the choice of magnetic equator on the identification of reversed flux, the contribution of reversed and normal flux to axial dipole decay, and how reversed and normal field evolution has influenced the axial dipole. We show that a magnetic equator defined as a null-flux curve of the magnetic field truncated at spherical harmonic degree 3 allows us to robustly identify reversed flux, which we demonstrate is a feature of at least degree 4 or 5. Additionally, our results indicate that the evolution of reversed flux accounts for approximately two-thirds of the decay of the axial dipole, while one third of the decay is attributed to the evolution of the normal field. We find that the decay of the axial dipole over the 20th century is associated with both the expansion and poleward migration of reversed flux patches. In contrast to this centennial evolution, changes in the structure of secular variation since epoch 2000 indicate that poleward migration currently plays a much reduced role in the ongoing dipole decay