Access to surgical care in Ethiopia : a cross-sectional retrospective data review

Background: Access to emergency and essential surgical care is still unmet and accessibility is disproportionately inequitable in Ethiopia and other low-and middle-income countries. The aim of this study was to assess surgical care access in terms of capability, capacity, and timeliness of care in different levels of health care in Ethiopia. Methods: A cross-sectional study with retrospective data review was conducted in 172 health facilities from December 30, 2020 to June 10, 2021. Descriptive statistics such as median with interquartile range and proportion were computed using STATA Version 15 statistical software. Results: Within a 90-day interval of the study period, 69,717 major and minor surgeries, and 33,052 bellwether procedures were performed, and major surgeries accounted for 58% of the surgeries. About 1.6%, 23.56%, 25.34%, and 32.2% of both major and minor, and 3.1%, 12.8%, 27.6%, and 45.3% of bellwether procedures were performed in health center OR blocks, primary, general, and specialized hospitals, respectively. Private hospitals performed 17.33% of major and minor and 11.2% of bellwether procedures for the period. The average pre-admission waiting time for surgical patients in primary, general, and specialized hospitals was 9.68, 37.6, and 35.9 days, respectively, whereas, in private hospitals, the average pre-admission waiting time was 1.42 days. On average, surgical patients traveled 5 Hrs, 11 Hrs, 28.4 Hrs, and 21.3 Hrs to access surgical services in primary, general, specialized, and private hospitals, respectively. The surgical workforce to the population served ratio was 7.5, 1.15, and 1.31/100.000 population in primary, specialized and general hospitals, respectively. Conclusion: Most surgical procedures were performed in specialized hospitals, indicating that there is a burden in these health facilities. The pre-admission waiting time for surgical patients was long in higher-level public hospitals. Surgical patients traveled a long distance to access surgical service in higher level hospitals. The ratio of surgical workforce per 100,000 population served was low in all levels of public health facilities in general, and in higher level hospitals in particular. Efforts should therefore be made to strengthen all levels of the health system and improve surgical care access in terms of capacity, capability, and timeliness in the country

Surgical Capacity in Public and Private Health Facilities After a Five-Year Strategic Plan Implementation in Ethiopia: A Cross Sectional Study

Background: Surgical capacity is critical for ensuring optimum access to safe, affordable, and timely emergency and essential surgical care (EESC) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) like Ethiopia. A five-year strategic plan has been implemented during 2016–2020 in Ethiopia to improve surgical capacity. Objectives: This study aims to evaluate the impact of the five-year strategy in surgical capacity in the country. Methods: A cross sectional survey was conducted in 172 health care facilities in Ethiopia from December 30, 2020, to June 10, 2021. Descriptive statistical analysis was done using STATA statistical software Version 15. Findings: A total of 2,312 surgical workforces were available and, the surgical workforce to population ratio ranged from 1.13:100,000 for public specialized hospitals to 10.8:100,000 for health centre operation room (OR) blocks. Surgical bed to population ratio was 0.03:1000 population, and the average numbers of OR tables per facility were 34. Nearly 25% and 10% of OR tables were not functional in public primary hospitals and private hospitals, respectively. The average surgical volume to population ratio was 189:100,000. Conclusions: Following the implementation of surgical care strategy, the surgical workforce density has increased. However, the study revealed that there is still a huge unmet gap in surgical capacity. The improvement in surgical volume is very low compared to the increment in the surgical workforce density. In addition to the investment being made to build surgical capacity, emphasis needs to be put on surgical system design and strengthening surgical system efficiency

Global change in hepatitis C virus prevalence and cascade of care between 2015 and 2020: a modelling study

Background Since the release of the first global hepatitis elimination targets in 2016, and until the COVID-19 pandemic started in early 2020, many countries and territories were making progress toward hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination. This study aims to evaluate HCV burden in 2020, and forecast HCV burden by 2030 given current trends. Methods This analysis includes a literature review, Delphi process, and mathematical modelling to estimate HCV prevalence (viraemic infection, defined as HCV RNA-positive cases) and the cascade of care among people of all ages (age ≥0 years from birth) for the period between Jan 1, 2015, and Dec 31, 2030. Epidemiological data were collected from published sources and grey literature (including government reports and personal communications) and were validated among country and territory experts. A Markov model was used to forecast disease burden and cascade of care from 1950 to 2050 for countries and territories with data. Model outcomes were extracted from 2015 to 2030 to calculate population-weighted regional averages, which were used for countries or territories without data. Regional and global estimates of HCV prevalence, cascade of care, and disease burden were calculated based on 235 countries and territories. Findings Models were built for 110 countries or territories: 83 were approved by local experts and 27 were based on published data alone. Using data from these models, plus population-weighted regional averages for countries and territories without models (n=125), we estimated a global prevalence of viraemic HCV infection of 0·7% (95% UI 0·7–0·9), corresponding to 56·8 million (95% UI 55·2–67·8) infections, on Jan 1, 2020. This number represents a decrease of 6·8 million viraemic infections from a 2015 (beginning of year) prevalence estimate of 63·6 million (61·8–75·8) infections (0·9% [0·8–1·0] prevalence). By the end of 2020, an estimated 12·9 million (12·5–15·4) people were living with a diagnosed viraemic infection. In 2020, an estimated 641000 (623000–765000) patients initiated treatment. Interpretation At the beginning of 2020, there were an estimated 56·8 million viraemic HCV infections globally. Although this number represents a decrease from 2015, our forecasts suggest we are not currently on track to achieve global elimination targets by 2030. As countries recover from COVID-19, these findings can help refocus efforts aimed at HCV elimination