Power, norms and institutional change in the European Union: the protection of the free movement of goods

How do institutions of the European Union change? Using an institutionalist approach, this article highlights the interplay between power, cognitive limits, and the normative order that underpins institutional settings and assesses their impact upon the process of institutional change. Empirical evidence from recent attempts to reinforce the protection of the free movement of goods in the EU suggests that, under conditions of uncertainty, actors with ambiguous preferences assess attempts at institutional change on the basis of the historically defined normative order which holds a given institutional structure together. Hence, path dependent and incremental change occurs even when more ambitious and functionally superior proposals are on offer

Optimal dynamic portfolio selection with earnings-at-risk

In this paper we investigate a continuous-time portfolio selection problem. Instead of using the classical variance as usual, we use earnings-at-risk (EaR) of terminal wealth as a measure of risk. In the settings of Black-Scholes type financial markets and constantly-rebalanced portfolio (CRP) investment strategies, we obtain closed-form expressions for the best CRP investment strategy and the efficient frontier of the mean-EaR problem, and compare our mean-EaR analysis to the classical mean-variance analysis and to the mean-CaR (capital-at-risk) analysis. We also examine some economic implications arising from using the mean-EaR model. © 2007 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.postprin

From Social Data Mining to Forecasting Socio-Economic Crisis

Socio-economic data mining has a great potential in terms of gaining a better understanding of problems that our economy and society are facing, such as financial instability, shortages of resources, or conflicts. Without large-scale data mining, progress in these areas seems hard or impossible. Therefore, a suitable, distributed data mining infrastructure and research centers should be built in Europe. It also appears appropriate to build a network of Crisis Observatories. They can be imagined as laboratories devoted to the gathering and processing of enormous volumes of data on both natural systems such as the Earth and its ecosystem, as well as on human techno-socio-economic systems, so as to gain early warnings of impending events. Reality mining provides the chance to adapt more quickly and more accurately to changing situations. Further opportunities arise by individually customized services, which however should be provided in a privacy-respecting way. This requires the development of novel ICT (such as a self- organizing Web), but most likely new legal regulations and suitable institutions as well. As long as such regulations are lacking on a world-wide scale, it is in the public interest that scientists explore what can be done with the huge data available. Big data do have the potential to change or even threaten democratic societies. The same applies to sudden and large-scale failures of ICT systems. Therefore, dealing with data must be done with a large degree of responsibility and care. Self-interests of individuals, companies or institutions have limits, where the public interest is affected, and public interest is not a sufficient justification to violate human rights of individuals. Privacy is a high good, as confidentiality is, and damaging it would have serious side effects for society.Comment: 65 pages, 1 figure, Visioneer White Paper, see http://www.visioneer.ethz.c

The Value of Information for Populations in Varying Environments

The notion of information pervades informal descriptions of biological systems, but formal treatments face the problem of defining a quantitative measure of information rooted in a concept of fitness, which is itself an elusive notion. Here, we present a model of population dynamics where this problem is amenable to a mathematical analysis. In the limit where any information about future environmental variations is common to the members of the population, our model is equivalent to known models of financial investment. In this case, the population can be interpreted as a portfolio of financial assets and previous analyses have shown that a key quantity of Shannon's communication theory, the mutual information, sets a fundamental limit on the value of information. We show that this bound can be violated when accounting for features that are irrelevant in finance but inherent to biological systems, such as the stochasticity present at the individual level. This leads us to generalize the measures of uncertainty and information usually encountered in information theory

The Caravan Rolls On

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/68409/2/10.1177_107554707900100103.pd

Should science educators deal with the science/religion issue?

I begin by examining the natures of science and religion before looking at the ways in which they relate to one another. I then look at a number of case studies that centre on the relationships between science and religion, including attempts to find mechanisms for divine action in quantum theory and chaos theory, creationism, genetic engineering and the writings of Richard Dawkins. Finally, I consider some of the pedagogical issues that would need to be considered if the science/religion issue is to be addressed in the classroom. I conclude that there are increasing arguments in favour of science educators teaching about the science/religion issue. The principal reason for this is to help students better to learn science. However, such teaching makes greater demands on science educators than has generally been the case. Certain of these demands are identified and some specific suggestions are made as to how a science educator might deal with the science/religion issue. © 2008 Taylor & Francis