19 research outputs found

    The Use of Expert Judgement in Risk Assessment

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    Reasoning maps for decision aid: an integrated approach for problem-structuring and multi-criteria evaluation

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    This paper proposes a tool for multi-criteria decision aid to be referred to as a Reasoning Map. It is motivated by a desire to provide an integrated approach to problem structuring and evaluation, and in particular, to make the transition between these two processes a natural and seamless progression. The approach has two phases. In the first one, the building of a Reasoning Map supports problem structuring, capturing a decision maker's reasoning as a network of means and ends concepts. In the second phase, this map is enhanced, employing a user-defined qualitative scale to measure both performances of decision options and strengths of influence for each means–end link. This latter phase supports the decision maker in evaluating the positive and negative impacts of an action through synthesis of the qualitative information. A case study, which investigates the use of the method in practice, is also presented

    Policy analytics : an agenda for research and practice

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    The growing impact of the “analytics” perspective in recent years, which integrates advanced data-mining and learning methods, is often associated with increasing access to large databases and with decision support systems. Since its origin, the field of analytics has been strongly business-oriented, with a typical focus on data-driven decision processes. In public decisions, however, issues such as individual and social values, culture and public engagement are more important and, to a large extent, characterise the policy cycle of design, testing, implementation, evaluation and review of public policies. Therefore public policy making seems to be a much more socially complex process than has hitherto been considered by most analytics methods and applications. In this paper, we thus suggest a framework for the use of analytics in supporting the policy cycle—and conceptualise it as “Policy Analytics”
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