The worldwide spread of antidumping protection

Antidumping duties ; General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (Organization) ; World Trade Organization

Cyclical dumping and U.S. antidumping protection: 1980-2001

In this paper, I test the theory that weak economic conditions in a foreign economy cause cyclical dumping, i.e., the temporary sale of products in a trading partner's economy at a price below average total cost. Although I am unable to observe prices or costs directly, a novel identification strategy allows me to uncover evidence of cyclical dumping. Using country- specific information on foreign economic shocks in manufacturing industries, filing decisions by the US industry, and antidumping decisions by the US government, I am able to identify strong evidence of cyclical dumping. After controlling for other factors that likely drive industry filing and government decisions, I find that a one standard deviation fall in the growth of employment in a foreign economy's manufacturing industry quadruples the joint probability that the US industry will file an antidumping petition and the US government will impose a preliminary (temporary) antidumping measure. Further, a one standard deviation fall in foreign employment growth more than doubles the joint probability that a petition will be filed and a final (long-lasting) antidumping measure will be imposed.Antidumping duties

An introduction to the WTO and GATT

This article reviews the history of GATT and the WTO. It discusses the founding principles of the post-WW II world trading system--reciprocity and nondiscrimination. Lastly, the article reviews the economics literature on regional trade agreements and administered protection, two important exceptions to GATT's requirement in trade policy.General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (Organization) ; World Trade Organization

Import protection, business cycles, and exchange rates: evidence from the Great Recession

This paper uses highly detailed, quarterly data for five major industrialized economies to estimate the impact of> macroeconomic fluctuations on import protection policies over 1988:Q1–2010:Q4. First, estimates on a pre-Great Recession sample of data provide evidence of two key relationships. We confirm that appreciations in bilateral real exchange rates lead to substantial increases in antidumping and related forms of import protection: e.g., a 4 percent appreciation results in 60–90 percent more products being subject to import protection. We also provide evidence of a previously overlooked result that policy-imposing countries historically imposed such bilateral import restrictions on trading partners that were going through periods of weak economic growth.> Second, we use the model to then provide the first estimates that link macroeconomic fluctuations to a change in policy-imposing behavior during the Great Recession so as to explain the realized protectionist response. During the Great Recession, the U.S. and other policy-imposing economies became less responsive to exchange rate appreciations. Furthermore, the U.S. and other economies “switched” from their historical behavior and shifted implementing new import protection away from those trading partners that were contracting and toward those experiencing economic growth. In a final exercise, we document how the model’s estimates imply that a 9–20 percent appreciation of China's real exchange rate vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar during the sample period would allow for China’s exporters to have received the "average" import protection treatment under antidumping that the U.S. imposed against other countries.Antidumping duties ; Business cycles ; Foreign exchange rates ; Recessions

Self-enforcing trade agreements: evidence from antidumping policy

This paper empirically examines how governments make trade policy adjustments under a self-enforcing trade agreement in the presence of economic shocks. Using data on US antidumping (AD) policy formation between 1997-2006, we find that US antidumping policy is often consistent with the time-varying “cooperative” tariff increases modeled in the self-enforcing trade agreement of Bagwell and Staiger (1990). Estimates of an empirical model of US antidumping indicate that the likelihood of a US antidumping duty is increasing in the size of the unexpected import surge, decreasing in the volatility of imports and decreasing in the elasticities of import demand and export supply. This suggests that time-varying increases in US tariff rates under antidumping policy could be interpreted as “cooperative” tariff increases that support a self-enforcing trade agreement facing an unexpected import surge.Antidumping duties ; Tariff

China's export growth and U.S. trade policy

This paper examines how US special import restrictions affect the growth of China's exports to countries other than the US. We estimate an empirical model of trade deflection and trade depression of roughly 5100 commodities exported by China to 37 countries between 1992 and 2001. Our estimation yields evidence that US trade restrictions deflect Chinese exports to third, non-US markets. Imposition of a US antidumping duty against China leads the growth rate of targeted commodities to increase approximately 25 percentage points. Our results on the deflection of Chinese exports vary across commodity, with the strongest evidence of trade deflection appearing in the steel, pharmaceuticals and manufactured goods industries.Exports ; Trade

Slamming the Door on Trade Policy Discretion? The WTO Appellate Body\u27s Ruling on Market Distortions and Production Costs in EU—Biodiesel (Argentina)

This paper presents a legal-economic analysis of the Appellate Body′s decision in EU-Biodiesel (Argentina) that the WTO′s Anti-Dumping Agreement (ADA) does not permit countries to take into account government-created price distortions of major inputs when calculating anti-dumping duties. In this case, the EU made adjustments to the price of biodiesel′s principal input - soybeans - in determining the cost of production of biodiesel in Argentina. The adjustment was made based on the uncontested finding that the price of soybeans in Argentina was distorted by the existence of an export tax scheme that resulted in artificially low soybean prices. The Appellate Body found that the EU was not permitted to take tax policy-induced price distortions into account in calculating dumping margins. We analyze the economic rationale for Argentina′s export tax system, distortions in biodiesel markets in Argentina and the EU, and the remaining trade policy options for addressing distorted international prices. We also assess whether existing subsidies disciplines would be more effective in addressing this problem and conclude that they would not

Understanding the great trade collapse of 2008–09 and the subsequent trade recovery

This article documents the Great Trade Collapse of 2008–09, as well as the dramatic recovery in trade of 2009–10. The authors consider how three distinct policy actions — fiscal stimulus, funding for trade finance and a commitment to refrain from increasing trade barriers — might have affected both the collapse and recovery.Gross domestic product ; Trade ; Recessions

A spatial analysis of agriculture in the Republic of Ireland, 1991 to 2000

End of year projectBy linking farm census and administrative data from the CSO and DAF to a geographic information system and analysing the mapping output, this project shows the continued broad division of farming in the state into marginal farming areas in the north and west and more commercial farming areas in the south and east. While this division was compounded by the 1992 CAP reforms, and commercial farming became more spatially concentrated over the 1990s, the influence of the development in the non-farm economy, particularly in peri-urban rural areas across the state, provided local drivers of change that encouraged enterprise substitution to beef production, the farming system most readily combined by farm holders with another job. A full report on the mapping output will be produced in a forthcoming publication (see publications list)

China's export growth and the China safeguard : threats to the world trading system ?

Is there evidence from China's pre-WTO accession period that newly imposed U.S. or EU import restrictions deflect Chinese exports to third markets? The authors examine this question by drawing on a newly constructed data set of U.S. and EU product-level import restrictions on Chinese trade imposed between 1992 and 2001 and estimate their impact on Chinese exports to 38 alternative markets. There is no systematic evidence that the import restrictions imposed during this period resulted in Chinese exports surging to such alternate destinations. To the contrary, there is weak evidence of a chilling effect on China's exports to third markets.Free Trade,Economic Theory&Research,Trade Policy,Trade Law,Markets and Market Access