Assessing the Impacts of Different Initiatives on the Rehabilitation of Pastoral and Silvopastoral Ecosystems: Big Data Oriented Approach

Moroccan forests, through the provision of goods and ecosystem services, underpins benefits to local communities and play a crucial role for rural area development. The legal framework recognizes to people, living near public forests, the right to graze their domestic livestock. Over the years, the grazing pressure is at levels far beyond the forestland’s carrying capacity throughout the country. Such pressure has been demonstrated as the main cause of forest cover loss and land degradation in Morocco and still threatening the sustainability of forests. To reduce the heavy grazing pressure on forest ecosystems and ensure their regeneration, several initiatives have been conducted such as the program of compensation for forest areas closed to grazing (CFCG), initiated by Moroccan forestry department. Socio-economic impact assessment of this mechanism was presented within several studies but its effectiveness for forest rangeland rehabilitation remains scarce and very spatially limited. To deal with this concern and to assess vegetation dynamics through various spatial and temporal scales, parcels concerned by CFCG and others within similar conditions was chosen. Time series of remotely sensed spectral indices at each parcel was used for vegetation cover dynamics assessment. Google Earth Engine platform (GEE) was used as computing plateform. As result, the spectral indices trends shown a long-lasting degradation tendency in areas planted without compensation compared to those concerned by CFCG. Such results were also verified using aerial images covering the analyzed parcels. As conclusion, within comparable conditions, CFCG improved vegetation cover trends. The use of GEE Platform simplified the process of treatment of remote sensed imagery and made it easy to assess the state of the vegetation and will be of great use in assessing the impacts of different programs and initiatives on the restoration of pastoral and silvopastoral ecosystems

Impact of climate change on potential distribution of Quercus suber in the conditions of North Africa

Climate change, which is expected to continue in the future, is increasingly becoming a major concern affecting many components of the biodiversity and human society. Understanding its impacts on forest ecosystems is essential for undertaking long-term management and conservation strategies. This study was focused on modeling the potential distribution of Quercus suber in the Maamora Forest, the world’s largest lowland cork oak forest, under actual and future climate conditions and identifying the environmental factors associated with this distribution. Maximum Entropy approach was used to train a Species Distribution Model and future predictions were based on different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway RCPs). The results showed that the trained model was highly reliable and reflected the actual and future distributions of Maamora’s cork oak. It showed that the precipitation of the coldest and wettest quarter and the annual temperature range are the environmental factors that provide the most useful information for Q. suber distribution in the study area. The computed results of cork oak’s habitat suitability showed that predicted suitable areas are site-specific and seem to be highly dependent on climate change. The predicted changes are significant and expected to vary (decline of habitat suitability) in the future under the different emissions pathways. It indicates that climate change may reduce the suitable area for Q. suber under all the climate scenarios and the severity of projected impacts is closely linked to the magnitude of the climate change. The percent variation in habitat suitability indicates negative values for all the scenarios, ranging –23% to –100%. These regressions are projected to be more important under pessimist scenario RCP8.5. Given these results, we recommend including the future climate scenarios in the existing management strategies and highlight the usefulness of the produced predictive suitability maps under actual and future climate for the protection of this sensitive forest and its key species – cork oak, as well as for other forest species