Testing for causality between FDI and economic growth using heterogeneous panel data

The causal relationship between FDI inflows and growth is of great policy interest, yet the state of concrete knowledge on the issue is rather poor. Our contribution is to investigate the causal relationship between the ratio of FDI to GDP (FDIG) and economic growth (GDPG) using a battery of cutting-edge methods and an extensive data set. We employ the heterogeneous-panel tests of the Granger non-causality hypothesis based on the works of Hurlin, C. 2004a. Testing Granger Causality in Heterogeneous Panel Data Models with Fixed Coefficients. Mimeo: University of Orléans, (Fisher, R. A. 1932. Statistical Methods for Research Workers. Edinburgh: Oliver & Boyd., Fisher, R. A. 1948. ‘Combining Independent Tests of Significance.’ American Statistician 2 (5): 30–31) and Hanck, C. 2013. ‘An intersection test for panel unit roots.’ Econometric Reviews 32 (2): 183–203. Our panel data set is compiled from 136 developed and developing countries over the 1970-2006 period. According to the Hurlin and Fisher tests, FDIG unambiguously Granger-causes GDPG for at least one country. However, the results from these tests are ambiguous regarding whether GDPG Granger-causes FDIG for at least one country. Using a test based upon Hanck, C. 2013. ‘An intersection test for panel unit roots.’ Econometric Reviews 32 (2): 183–203, both with and without one structural break in the vector autoregression, we are able to determine whether and for which countries there is Granger-causality. This test suggests that at most there are six countries (Estonia, Guyana, Poland, Switzerland, Tajikistan and Yemen) where FDIG Granger-causes GDPG and at most four countries (Dominican Republic, Gabon, Madagascar and Poland) where GDPG Granger-causes FDIG

Identifying the robust economic, geographical and political determinants of FDI: an extreme bounds analysis

Understanding what determines Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows remains a primary concern of economists and policy makers; yet, the uncertainty surrounding FDI theories and empirical approaches has created much ambiguity regarding the determinants of FDI. This paper undertakes an exhaustive search for robust determinants of FDI. We apply Extreme Bound Analysis to deal with model uncertainty, using a large panel data set that covers 168 countries from 1970 to 2006. We consider 58 potential determinants of FDI that include economic, geographic and political variables. We show that more than half of the previously suggested FDI determinants are not robust. Our findings reaffirm the view that, in order to become attractive destinations for foreign investors, countries need to reinforce their infrastructure facilities, liberalise their local and global investment policies, improve the quality of governance institutions and reduce internal conflict and political risk

Identifying the robust economic, geographical and political determinants of FDI: an Extreme Bounds Analysis

Understanding what determines Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows remains a primary concern of economists and policy makers; yet the uncertainty surrounding FDI theories and empirical approaches has created ambiguity regarding the determinants of FDI. This paper applies Extreme Bounds Analysis to identify the robust determinants of FDI using panel data covering 168 countries from 1970 to 2006. We consider 58 potential economic, geographic and political determinants and find that almost one-third are robust, including: openness, education, government spending, corporate tax rate, infrastructure, experience of conflict, democratic governance, natural resources, geographic location, number of borders, coastal location and language

Identifying the robust economic, geographical and political determinants of FDI : an Extreme Bounds Analysis

Understanding what determines Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows remains a primary concern of economists and policy makers; yet the uncertainty surrounding FDI theories and empirical approaches has created ambiguity regarding the determinants of FDI. This paper applies Extreme Bounds Analysis to identify the robust determinants of FDI using panel data covering 168 countries from 1970 to 2006. We consider 58 potential economic, geographic and political determinants and find that almost one-third are robust, including: openness, education, government spending, corporate tax rate, infrastructure, experience of conflict, democratic governance, natural resources, geographic location, number of borders, coastal location and language