Dynamical Behavior of an Eco-epidemiological Model Incorporating Prey Refuge and Prey Harvesting

In this paper an eco-epidemiological model incorporating a prey refuge and prey harvesting with disease in the prey-population is considered. Predators are assumed to consume both the susceptible and infected prey at different rates. The positivity and boundedness of the solution of the system are discussed. The existence and stability of the biologically feasible equilibrium points are investigated. Numerical simulations are performed to support our analytical findings

A household survey of medicine storage practices in Gondar town, northwestern Ethiopia

Abstract Background Household surveys are crucial to get accurate information on how medicines are acquired, and used by consumers, as they provide the best evidence in the area. The objective of this study was to document household medicine storage practices in Gondar town, northwestern Ethiopia. Methods A cross-sectional household survey was conducted from April 5 to May 6, 2015. In the study, 809 households were surveyed from four sub-cities in the town selected through multistage sampling with 771 included in the final analysis. Data on the extent of storage, storage conditions, sources of medicines and their current status among others were collected through structured interviews and observations. The data were entered in to Epidata version 3.1, exported to and analyzed using Statistical Packages for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 21. Results Of the 771 households in the study, 44.2% stored medicines. Presence of family members with chronic illness(es) and higher levels of household incomes predicted higher likelihood of medicine storage. In the households which allowed observation of stored medicines (n = 299), a mean of 1.85 [SD = 1.09] medicines per household were found. By category, anti-infectives for systemic use (23.9%), medicines for alimentary tract and metabolism (19.2%) and those for cardiovascular system (17.7%) ranked top. Among individual medicines stored, diclofenac (10.7%), paracetamol (9.9%) and amoxicillin (8.0%) were on top of the list. Dispensaries (97.8%) and physicians (83.5%) were almost exclusive sources of medicines and advices/orders for medicines respectively. Nearly two-thirds of the medicines found were on use and a vast majority (76.5%) were stored in chests of drawers. Proportion of expired medicines was very low (3.14%). Conclusions The use of physicians’ and pharmacists’ advice to get medicines; use of dispensaries as principal sources, large proportion of medicines being in use and very low proportion of expiry showed good practices. However, storage places of medicines were not purpose built. Encouraging good practices through continued medicine use education and advocating appropriate medicine storage in medicine cabinets is required to improve storage conditions and consequent use of medicines

Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017 : results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Correction:Background Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. Methods We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Findings In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). Interpretation Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.Peer reviewe

Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017

A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic

Global, regional, and national cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-Adjusted life-years for 29 cancer groups, 1990 to 2017 : A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study

Importance: Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data. Objective: To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning. Evidence Review: We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-Adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence. Findings: In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs). Conclusions and Relevance: The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care. © 2019 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe

The effect of prey refuge on the dynamics of three species food web system

In this paper, a mathematical model is proposed to study the effect of prey refuge on the dynamics of three species food web system. The food web comprises of a single prey and two competing predators. The two predators predate their prey following Holling type II functional response. In this work we discussed boundedness of the system, existence condition of the equilibrium points and the Jacobean matrix is obtained by linearization techniques. The local stability of the equilibrium points was discussed by using Routh-Hurwitz criteria and the global stability of the equilibrium points by constructing suitable Lyapunov function. Numerical simulation is conducted to support the analytical result. Finally, the effect of prey refuge on the dynamics of one prey two predator was discussed based on the analytical and numerical simulation results. From the numerical simulations, it is found that the dynamical system is persistent for a small value of the refuge constant. However, an increase in the refuge constant leads to the extinction of one of the predator species

Coinfection Dynamics of HBV-HIV/AIDS with Mother-to-Child Transmission and Medical Interventions

In this study, we analyzed the effect of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) on the transmission dynamics of their coinfection to make a recommendation based on reasons to public health sector, policy makers, and programme implementers. We proved that the solutions of the sub and full models are positive and bounded. The effective reproduction numbers of the models are derived using the next generation matrix method. The disease-free and endemic equilibria of the submodels and the coinfection model are computed, and the stability of those equilibria is analyzed using Routh-Hurwitz criteria after computing the associated effective reproduction numbers. We performed a sensitivity analysis to show the influence of different parameters on the effective reproduction number of HBV-HIV/AIDS coinfection model, and we identified the most sensitive parameters are  τ2 and α1, which are the rate of MTCT of HIV and treatment rate for HBV infected class, respectively. The numerical simulation of the model is done using MATLAB and the findings from the simulations are discussed. From the results of numerical simulations, we observed that an increase in the rates of MTCT of HBV and HIV exacerbated HBV-HIV/AIDS coinfection, while a decrease in the rates of MTCT of these infections would decline the number of cases, minimize the spread, and help to eliminate HBV-HIV/AIDS coinfection from the society gradually