Characterizing and modeling the dynamics of online popularity

Online popularity has enormous impact on opinions, culture, policy, and profits. We provide a quantitative, large scale, temporal analysis of the dynamics of online content popularity in two massive model systems, the Wikipedia and an entire country's Web space. We find that the dynamics of popularity are characterized by bursts, displaying characteristic features of critical systems such as fat-tailed distributions of magnitude and inter-event time. We propose a minimal model combining the classic preferential popularity increase mechanism with the occurrence of random popularity shifts due to exogenous factors. The model recovers the critical features observed in the empirical analysis of the systems analyzed here, highlighting the key factors needed in the description of popularity dynamics.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures. Modeling part detailed. Final version published in Physical Review Letter

Human dynamics revealed through Web analytics

When the World Wide Web was first conceived as a way to facilitate the sharing of scientific information at the CERN (European Center for Nuclear Research) few could have imagined the role it would come to play in the following decades. Since then, the increasing ubiquity of Internet access and the frequency with which people interact with it raise the possibility of using the Web to better observe, understand, and monitor several aspects of human social behavior. Web sites with large numbers of frequently returning users are ideal for this task. If these sites belong to companies or universities, their usage patterns can furnish information about the working habits of entire populations. In this work, we analyze the properly anonymized logs detailing the access history to Emory University's Web site. Emory is a medium size university located in Atlanta, Georgia. We find interesting structure in the activity patterns of the domain and study in a systematic way the main forces behind the dynamics of the traffic. In particular, we show that both linear preferential linking and priority based queuing are essential ingredients to understand the way users navigate the Web.Comment: 7 pages, 8 figure

Transport in Transitory, Three-Dimensional, Liouville Flows

We derive an action-flux formula to compute the volumes of lobes quantifying transport between past- and future-invariant Lagrangian coherent structures of n-dimensional, transitory, globally Liouville flows. A transitory system is one that is nonautonomous only on a compact time interval. This method requires relatively little Lagrangian information about the codimension-one surfaces bounding the lobes, relying only on the generalized actions of loops on the lobe boundaries. These are easily computed since the vector fields are autonomous before and after the time-dependent transition. Two examples in three-dimensions are studied: a transitory ABC flow and a model of a microdroplet moving through a microfluidic channel mixer. In both cases the action-flux computations of transport are compared to those obtained using Monte Carlo methods.Comment: 30 pages, 16 figures, 1 table, submitted to SIAM J. Appl. Dyn. Sy

Simultaneous Border-Collision and Period-Doubling Bifurcations

We unfold the codimension-two simultaneous occurrence of a border-collision bifurcation and a period-doubling bifurcation for a general piecewise-smooth, continuous map. We find that, with sufficient non-degeneracy conditions, a locus of period-doubling bifurcations emanates non-tangentially from a locus of border-collision bifurcations. The corresponding period-doubled solution undergoes a border-collision bifurcation along a curve emanating from the codimension-two point and tangent to the period-doubling locus here. In the case that the map is one-dimensional local dynamics are completely classified; in particular, we give conditions that ensure chaos.Comment: 22 pages; 5 figure

Quantum Poincar\'e Recurrences

We show that quantum effects modify the decay rate of Poincar\'e recurrences P(t) in classical chaotic systems with hierarchical structure of phase space. The exponent p of the algebraic decay P(t) ~ 1/t^p is shown to have the universal value p=1 due to tunneling and localization effects. Experimental evidence of such decay should be observable in mesoscopic systems and cold atoms.Comment: revtex, 4 pages, 4 figure

New Class of Eigenstates in Generic Hamiltonian Systems

In mixed systems, besides regular and chaotic states, there are states supported by the chaotic region mainly living in the vicinity of the hierarchy of regular islands. We show that the fraction of these hierarchical states scales as $\hbar^{-\alpha}$ and relate the exponent $\alpha=1-1/\gamma$ to the decay of the classical staying probability $P(t)\sim t^{-\gamma}$. This is numerically confirmed for the kicked rotor by studying the influence of hierarchical states on eigenfunction and level statistics.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, Phys. Rev. Lett., to appea

Fractal Conductance Fluctuations in a Soft Wall Stadium and a Sinai Billiard

Conductance fluctuations have been studied in a soft wall stadium and a Sinai billiard defined by electrostatic gates on a high mobility semiconductor heterojunction. These reproducible magnetoconductance fluctuations are found to be fractal confirming recent theoretical predictions of quantum signatures in classically mixed (regular and chaotic) systems. The fractal character of the fluctuations provides direct evidence for a hierarchical phase space structure at the boundary between regular and chaotic motion.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures, data on Sinai geometry added to Fig.1, minor change

Universal diffusion near the golden chaos border

We study local diffusion rate $D$ in Chirikov standard map near the critical golden curve. Numerical simulations confirm the predicted exponent $\alpha=5$ for the power law decay of $D$ as approaching the golden curve via principal resonances with period $q_n$ ($D \sim 1/q^{\alpha}_n$). The universal self-similar structure of diffusion between principal resonances is demonstrated and it is shown that resonances of other type play also an important role.Comment: 4 pages Latex, revtex, 3 uuencoded postscript figure

Straight Line Orbits in Hamiltonian Flows

We investigate periodic straight-line orbits (SLO) in Hamiltonian force fields using both direct and inverse methods. A general theorem is proven for natural Hamiltonians quadratic in the momenta in arbitrary dimension and specialized to two and three dimension. Next we specialize to homogeneous potentials and their superpositions, including the familiar H\'enon-Heiles problem. It is shown that SLO's can exist for arbitrary finite superpositions of $N$-forms. The results are applied to a family of generalized H\'enon-Heiles potentials having discrete rotational symmetry. SLO's are also found for superpositions of these potentials.Comment: laTeX with 6 figure

Decay of Classical Chaotic Systems - the Case of the Bunimovich Stadium

The escape of an ensemble of particles from the Bunimovich stadium via a small hole has been studied numerically. The decay probability starts out exponentially but has an algebraic tail. The weight of the algebraic decay tends to zero for vanishing hole size. This behaviour is explained by the slow transport of the particles close to the marginally stable bouncing ball orbits. It is contrasted with the decay function of the corresponding quantum system.Comment: 16 pages, RevTex, 3 figures are available upon request from [email protected], to be published in Phys.Rev.