Geothermal exploration and resource assessment: R and D program benefit/cost analysis

The Geothermal Exploration and Resource and Reservoir Assessment (GERRA) Research and Development (R and D) Program of the Department of Energy was analyzed to evaluate its cost effectiveness and relevance to the needs of the geothermal exploration industry. This analysis was conducted in three phases. The first phase involved a review of the state-of-the-art and an identification of major R and D needs, followed by a quantitative assessment of the benefits expected from the achievement of some realistic targets for reducing the proportion of unsuccessful (non-productive) wells drilled in the course of exploration for a reservoir. In the second phase, questionnaires concerning the utility, effectiveness and need for improvement of certain commonly used exploration techniques were mailed to a set of 72 individuals active in geothermal exploration. The third phase consisted of in-person interviews with well recognized experts in geothermal exploration. The results of the quantitative analysis suggest that a benefit/cost ratio exceeding ten can be realized for the R and D expenditure by achieving a relatively modest target of improving the current weighted average exploratory drilling success ratio by 3 percentage points (i.e., from 0.24 to 0.27). The responses to the mailed questionnaires indicated that the emphasis of R and D should be on improving the data interpretation capability rather than the data collection (measurement) capability.Liquid geochemistry, seismic methods and thermal methods were identified as the techniques deserving most attention. The in-person interviews revealed that the industry is more concerned about finding buyers (utilities) for the discovered resources than about finding new resources in the near term