Bank Balance Sheets, Deleveraging and the Transmission Mechanism

The author investigates the influence of bank capital on economic activity, using a macroeconomic model that incorporates an explicit role for financial intermediation. The analysis focuses on the role of a “bank-capital channel” in propagating and amplifying monetary policy actions and other shocks. The question of whether weaker bank balance sheets make the economy more vulnerable to adverse shocks is examined, together with the impact of initiatives, such as countercyclical capital buffers, on the transmission of monetary policy and other shocks to the real economy.

Financial Intermediation, Liquidity and Inflation

This paper develops a search-theoretic model to study the interaction between banking and monetary policy and how this interaction affects the allocation and welfare. Regarding how banking affects the welfare costs of inflation: First, we find that, with banking, inflation generates smaller welfare costs. Second, we show that, lowering inflation improves welfare not just by reducing consumption/production distortions, but also by avoiding intermediation costs. Therefore, understanding the nature of intermediation cost is critical for accurately assessing the welfare gain of lowering the inflation target. Regarding how monetary policy affects the welfare effects of banking: First, banking always improves efficiency of production, but the banking technology has to be efficient to improve welfare (especially in low inflation economy). Second, welfare effects of banking depend on monetary policy. For low inflation, banking is not active. For high inflation, banking is active and improves welfare. For moderate inflation, banking is active but reduces welfare. Owing to general equilibrium feedback, banking is supported in equilibrium even though welfare is higher without banking.Monetary policy framework

Inflation, Nominal Portfolios, and Wealth Redistribution in Canada

There is currently a policy debate on potential refinements to monetary policy regimes in countries with low and stable inflation such as the U.S. and Canada. For example, in Canada, a systematic review of the current inflation targeting framework is underway. An issue that has generally received relatively less attention in this debate is the redistributional effects of inflation. This omission is likely to be important since the welfare costs of inflation depend not only on aggregate effects but also on redistributional consequences. The goal of this paper is to contribute to this policy debate by assessing the redistributional effects of inflation in Canada that arise through the revaluation of nominal assets and liabilities.We find that the redistributional effects of inflation are sizeable even for low and moderate inflation episodes. The main winners are young middle-class households with substantial amounts of mortgage debt. Besides young households, inflation also represents a windfall gain for the government because of its long-term debt. Old households, rich households, and the middle-aged middle-class lose from inflation, largely due to their sizeable holdings of bonds and non-indexed defined benefit pension assets.Monetary policy framework; Sectoral balance sheet; Inflation: costs and benefits; Inflation targets; Inflation and prices

Bank Capital, Agency Costs, and Monetary Policy

Evidence suggests that banks, like firms, face financial frictions when raising funds. The authors develop a quantitative, monetary business cycle model in which agency problems affect both the relationship between banks and firms and the relationship between banks and their depositors. As a result, bank capital and entrepreneurial net worth jointly determine aggregate investment, and are important determinants of the propagation of shocks. The authors find that the effects of monetary policy and technology shocks are dampened but more persistent in their model than in an economy where the information friction that banks face is reduced or eliminated. After documenting that the bank capital-asset ratio is countercyclical in the data, the authors show that their model, in which movements in this ratio are market-determined, can replicate the countercyclical ratio.Business fluctuations and cycles; Financial institutions; Transmission of monetary policy

Uninsurable Investment Risks

The authors study a general-equilibrium economy in which agents have the ability to invest in a risky technology. The investment risk cannot be fully insured with optimal contracts, because shocks are private information. The authors show that the presence of these risks may lead to an underaccumulation of capital relative to an economy where idiosyncratic shocks can be fully insured. They also show that, although the availability of state-contingent (optimal) contracts cannot provide full insurance, it brings the aggregate stock of capital close to the complete markets level. Institutional reforms that make the use of these contracts possible have important welfare consequences.Economic models; Financial institutions; Financial markets

Uninsurable Investment Risks and Capital Income Taxation

This paper studies the capital accumulation and welfare implications of reducing capital income taxation in a general equilibrium economy with uninsurable investment risks. It has been shown that, with uninsurable investment risks, under-accumulation of capital may result compared to the complete markets economy. We show that reducing somewhat the capital income tax rate increases the capital stock and leads to a welfare gain. The complete elimination of the capital income tax, however, is not necessarily welfare improving.Economics models

Unsecured Debt, Consumer Bankruptcy, and Small Business

In this paper we develop a quantitative model of entrepreneurial activity (risk-taking) and consumer bankruptcy choices and use the model to study the effects of bankruptcy regulations on entrepreneurial activity, bankruptcy rate and welfare. We show that eliminating bankruptcy exemptions leads to a modest increase in the fraction of entrepreneurs, a large decrease in the overall bankruptcy rate and a significant welfare gain. In contrast, eliminating the whole consumer bankruptcy system leads to a large fall in the fraction of entrepreneurs and a substantial welfare loss. These two findings suggest that the consumer bankruptcy system is desirable but it must be well-designed with regard to bankruptcy asset exemptions. In particular, excessive bankruptcy exemptions can be counter-productive. Finally, we argue that entrepreneurial activity is important when studying different bankruptcy rules or regulations.Economic models; Financial stability; Financial system regulation and policies

Innovation and Growth with Financial, and Other, Frictions

The generation and implementation of ideas, or knowledge, is crucial for economic performance. We study this process in a model of endogenous growth with frictions. Productivity increases with knowledge, which advances via innovation, and with the exchange of ideas from those who generate them to those best able to implement them (technology transfer). But frictions in this market, including search, bargaining, and commitment problems, impede exchange and thus slow growth. We characterize optimal policies to subsidize research and trade in ideas, given both knowledge and search externalities. We discuss the roles of liquidity and financial institutions, and show two ways in which intermediation can enhance efficiency and innovation. First, intermediation allows us to finance more transactions with fewer assets. Second, it ameliorates certain bargaining problems, by allowing entrepreneurs to undo otherwise sunk investments in liquidity. We also discuss some evidence, suggesting that technology transfer is a significant source of innovation and showing how it is affected by credit considerations.Economic models; Potential output; Productivity

Household Borrowing and Spending in Canada

Understanding how much of the increased debt load of Canadian households has been used to finance household spending on consumption and home renovation is important for the conduct of monetary policy. In this article, the authors use a comprehensive data set that provides information on the uses of debt by Canadian households. They first present some facts regarding the evolution of Canadian household debt over the period from 1999 to 2010, emphasizing the increased importance of debt flows that are secured by housing. They then explore how Canadian households have used their borrowed funds over the same period, and assess the role of these borrowed funds in financing total consumption and spending on home renovation. Finally, they examine the possible effects of a decline in house prices on consumption when housing equity is used as collateral against household indebtedness.

Modelling Financial Channels for Monetary Policy Analysis

The Bank of Canada considers a wide range of information and analysis before making a monetary policy decision and uses carefully articulated models to produce economic projections and to examine alternative scenarios. This article describes an ongoing research agenda at the Bank to develop models in which financial variables play an active role in the transmission of monetary policy actions to economic activity. Such models can help to analyze information from the financial side of the economy and to provide an overall view of the implications of financial developments for the current economic outlook. The authors also explain how this research can help address other issues relevant to the objectives of monetary policy, including how asset-price movements should be taken into account in the monetary policy framework.