Semi-Markov approach to continuous time random walk limit processes

Continuous time random walks (CTRWs) are versatile models for anomalous diffusion processes that have found widespread application in the quantitative sciences. Their scaling limits are typically non-Markovian, and the computation of their finite-dimensional distributions is an important open problem. This paper develops a general semi-Markov theory for CTRW limit processes in $\mathbb{R}^d$ with infinitely many particle jumps (renewals) in finite time intervals. The particle jumps and waiting times can be coupled and vary with space and time. By augmenting the state space to include the scaling limits of renewal times, a CTRW limit process can be embedded in a Markov process. Explicit analytic expressions for the transition kernels of these Markov processes are then derived, which allow the computation of all finite dimensional distributions for CTRW limits. Two examples illustrate the proposed method.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/13-AOP905 the Annals of Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aop/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Modeling and simulation with operator scaling

Self-similar processes are useful in modeling diverse phenomena that exhibit scaling properties. Operator scaling allows a different scale factor in each coordinate. This paper develops practical methods for modeling and simulating stochastic processes with operator scaling. A simulation method for operator stable Levy processes is developed, based on a series representation, along with a Gaussian approximation of the small jumps. Several examples are given to illustrate practical applications. A classification of operator stable Levy processes in two dimensions is provided according to their exponents and symmetry groups. We conclude with some remarks and extensions to general operator self-similar processes.Comment: 29 pages, 13 figure

Coupled continuous time random walks in finance

Continuous time random walks (CTRWs) are used in physics to model anomalous diffusion, by incorporating a random waiting time between particle jumps. In finance, the particle jumps are log-returns and the waiting times measure delay between transactions. These two random variables (log-return and waiting time) are typically not independent. For these coupled CTRW models, we can now compute the limiting stochastic process (just like Brownian motion is the limit of a simple random walk), even in the case of heavy tailed (power-law) price jumps and/or waiting times. The probability density functions for this limit process solve fractional partial differential equations. In some cases, these equations can be explicitly solved to yield descriptions of long-term price changes, based on a high-resolution model of individual trades that includes the statistical dependence between waiting times and the subsequent log-returns. In the heavy tailed case, this involves operator stable space-time random vectors that generalize the familiar stable models. In this paper, we will review the fundamental theory and present two applications with tick-by-tick stock and futures data.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures. Paper presented at the Econophysics Colloquium, Canberra, Australia, November 200

Brownian subordinators and fractional Cauchy problems

A Brownian time process is a Markov process subordinated to the absolute value of an independent one-dimensional Brownian motion. Its transition densities solve an initial value problem involving the square of the generator of the original Markov process. An apparently unrelated class of processes, emerging as the scaling limits of continuous time random walks, involve subordination to the inverse or hitting time process of a classical stable subordinator. The resulting densities solve fractional Cauchy problems, an extension that involves fractional derivatives in time. In this paper, we will show a close and unexpected connection between these two classes of processes, and consequently, an equivalence between these two families of partial differential equations.Comment: 18 pages, minor spelling correction

Correlated continuous time random walks

Continuous time random walks impose a random waiting time before each particle jump. Scaling limits of heavy tailed continuous time random walks are governed by fractional evolution equations. Space-fractional derivatives describe heavy tailed jumps, and the time-fractional version codes heavy tailed waiting times. This paper develops scaling limits and governing equations in the case of correlated jumps. For long-range dependent jumps, this leads to fractional Brownian motion or linear fractional stable motion, with the time parameter replaced by an inverse stable subordinator in the case of heavy tailed waiting times. These scaling limits provide an interesting class of non-Markovian, non-Gaussian self-similar processes.Comment: 13 page