Omitted-Ability Bias and the Increase in the Return to Schooling

Over the 1980s there were sharp increases in the return to schooling estimated with conventional wage regressions. We use both a signaling model and a human capital model to explore how the relationship between ability and schooling could have changed over this period in ways Chat would have increased the schooling coefficient in these regressions. Our empirical results reject the hypothesis that an increase in the upward bias of the schooling coefficient, due to a change in the relationship between ability and schooling, underlies the observed increase in the return to education over the 1980s. We also find that the increase in the return to education has occurred largely for workers with relatively high levels of academic ability.

Changes in the Structure of Family Income Inequality in the United States and Other Industrial Nationa During the 1980s

We examine the detailed structure of family income inequality in the United States, Canada, and Australia at various points during the 1980s. In each of these countries we find that income inequality increased among married couple families and that the increases are closely associated with increases in the inequality of husbands' earnings. However, only in the United States is the increased inequality of husbands' earnings also associated with an increase in education-earnings differentials. In addition, increased earnings inequality is associated with increases in both the variance of wages and the variance of labor supply in the United States and Canada, but only with an increase in the variance of labor supply in Australia. Evidence of an increase in married-couple income inequality is found for France and the United Kingdom, but not for Sweden or the Netherlands. For married couple families in Canada, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States, we find that increased inequality of family income is closely associated with an increased correlation between husbands' and wives' earnings. A more detailed examination of this correlation in Canada and the United States suggests that the increase in this correlation cannot be explained by an increase in the similarity of husbands' and wives' observable labor market characteristics in either country. Rather, it is explained partly by changes in the way those characteristics translate into labor market outcomes and, more important, by changes in the interspousal correlation between unobservable factors that influence labor market outcomes.

Fertility Timing, Wages, and Human Capital

Women who have first births relatively late in life earn higher wages. This paper offers an explanation of this fact based on a staple life-cycle model of human capital investment and timing of first birth. The model yields conditions (that are plausibly satisfied) under which late childbearers will tend to invest more heavily in human capital than early childbearers. The empirical analysis finds results consistent with the higher wages of late childbearers arising primarily through greater measurable human capital investment.

Minimum Wages and Poverty

The principal justification for minimum wage legislation resides in improving the economic condition of low-wage workers. Most previous analyses of the distributional effects of minimum wages have been confined to simulation exercises employing rather restrictive assumptions that guarantee the conclusion that an increase in the minimum wage reduces poverty. In contrast, we adopt a more flexible "reduced-form" approach that links increases in both federal and state minima to contemporaneous changes in poverty rates. For the period 1983-96, we find indication of a poverty-reducing effect of minimum wages among older junior-high dropouts and among teenagers. --

The Effects of Technological Change on Earnings and Income Inequality inthe United States

This paper explores the relationship between technological change and inequality in the U.S. since the late 1960's. The analysis focuses primarily on studying patterns and trends in the dispersion of various distributions of earnings and income during this recent period of rapid technological progress. We review relevant literature and perform several empirical analyses using microdata from the March Current Population Surveys from 1968 to 1986. Our main findings are that there is little empirical evidence that earnings inequality, measured across individual workers, has increased since the late 1960's, and even less evidence to support the hypothesis that any changes that have occurred have resulted from the effect of technological change on the demand for labor. However, we do find evidence of an increase since the late 1960's in the inequality of total family income, measured across families. Moreover, much of the increase appears to be due to changes in family composition and labor supply behavior, suggesting that the main effects of recent technological change on inequality have been supply-side in nature.

The Distribution of Family Income: Measuring and Explaining Changes in the 1980s for Canada and the United States

This paper attempts to measure and explain recent changes in the distributions of family income in Canada and the U.S. using comparable micro-data for the two countries for 1979 and 1987. Three main sets of conclusions are reached. First, the distributions of total family income (pre-tax, post-transfer) in the two countries changed differently in the 1980s. Average family income increased faster in Canada than in the U.S.. though income inequality increased unambiguously in the U.S., but not in Canada. Imposing a simple structure on the data reveals that the social welfare implications of these changes are generally indeterminate for each country. Second, changes in the distribution of transfer income had important influences on the distribution of total family income in both Canada and the U.S. Transfer income in Canada increased more rapidly than it did in the U.S. during the 1980s and also became more redistributive in nature. Most notably, the shifts in transfer income left female-headed families in Canada with a higher mean income and less income inequality in 1987 than they had in 1970. Among female-headed families in the U.S., income inequality increased while average income declined. Third, increased income inequality in the U.S. partly reflects increased earnings inequality, which is itself associated with a widening of education-earnings differentials that occurred in the 1980s. Earnings inequality also increased in Canada in the 1980s, despite the stability of education-earnings differentials.

Minimum Wage Increases Under Straightened Circumstances

Do apparently large minimum wage increases in an environment of recession produce clearer evidence of disemployment effects than is typically observed in the new minimum wage literature? This paper augments the sparse literature on the most recent increases in the U.S. minimum wage, using three different data sets and the two main estimation strategies for handling geographically-disparate trends. The evidence is generally unsupportive of negative employment effects, still less of a 'recessionary multiplier.' Minimum wage workers seem to be concentrated in sectors of the economy for which the labor demand response to wage mandates is minimal.minimum wages, disemployment, earnings, low-wage sectors, geographically-disparate employment trends, recession

Changes in the structure of Family Income Inequality in the United States and other Industrial Nations during the 1980s

We examine the detailed structure of family inequality in the United States, Canada, and Australia at various points during the 1980s. In each of these countries we find that income inequality increased among married couple families and that the increases are closely associated with increases in the inequality of husbands' earnings. However, only in the united states is the increased inequality of husbands' earnings also associated with an increase in education-earnings differentials. In addition, increased earnings inequality is associated with increases in both the variance of wages and the variance of labor supply in the united states and Canada, but only with an increase in the variance of labor supply in Australia. Evidence of an increase in married couple income inequality is also found for France and the United kingdom, but not for Sweden or the Netherlands. For married couple families in Canada, Sweden, the united kingdom, and the United States, we find that increased inequality of family income is closely associated with and increased correlation between husbands' and wives' earnings. A more detailed examination of this correlation in Canada and the United sates suggest that the increase in this correlation cannot be explained by an increase in the similarity of husbands and wives observable labor market characteristics in either country. Rather, it is explained partly by changes in the way those characteristics translate into labor market outcomes and more important, by changes in the interspousal correlation between unobservable factors that influence labor market outcomes

"Changes in Earnings Differentials in the 1980s: Concordance, Convergence, Causes, and Consequence"

This paper analyzes changes in U.S. earnings differentials in the 1980s between race, gender, age, and schooling groups. There are four main sets of results to report. First, the economic position of less-educated workers declined relative to the more-educated among almost all demographic groups. Education-earnings differentials clearly rose for whites, but less clearly for blacks, while employment rate differences associated with education increased more for blacks than for whites. Second, much of the change in education-earnings differentials for specific groups is attributable to measurable economic factors: to changes in the occupational or industrial structure of employment; to changes in average wages within industries; to the fall in the real value of the minimum wage and the fall in union density; and to changes in the relative growth rate of more educated workers. Third, the earnings and employment position of white females, and to a lesser extent of black females, converged to that of white males in the 1980s, across education groups. At the same time, the economic position of more-educated black males appears to have worsened relative to their white-male counterparts. Fourth, there has been a sizable college-enrollment response to the rising relative wages of college graduates. This response suggests that education-earnings differentials may stop increasing, or even start to decline, in the near future.