Making better decisions for the conservation of threatened species: science, values, and New Zealand's rarest bird

Decision making for threatened species recovery can be complex: there is often a diverse range of stakeholders holding values that may be conflicting, data are typically deficient and imperfect, and there is uncertainty about the outcomes of proposed actions. Yet in this pressured and challenging context, decisions must still be made. Conservationists therefore need the right tools to address these complexities, and structured decision making (SDM) is effective in this space. Here, I demonstrate the utility of SDM and its component tools to assist recovery planning for Aotearoa-New Zealand’s rarest indigenous breeding bird, tara iti (New Zealand fairy tern, Sternula nereis davisae). My PhD aims to advance (i) the way we approach decisions via inclusivity and expression of values, (ii) the way we make decisions by recognising objectives, creating alternatives and making explicit trade-offs, and (iii) the way we use data to support these decisions by analysing and interpreting biased or imperfect datasets. Values drive decisions, and I first demonstrate how SDM, a values-focused approach, can be used to meaningfully integrate stakeholder values such as mātauranga Māori (Māori [indigenous New Zealander] knowledge/perspective) into conservation decisions and provide a basis for co-management between different peoples. Second, I analyse a seabird translocation trial, showing how creative thinking about alternatives can help better achieve conservation objectives. Third, I show how the application of SDM resulted in a new management recommendation that balanced across multiple objectives and was evidence-based. This was the first action after a decade of inaction and communication breakdown between stakeholders. Finally, I use a decision tree and counterfactuals to analyse the efficacy of tara iti egg management, showing how these tools can help navigate complex and biased monitoring data sets to improve future decisions. This thesis provides a detailed real-world example of how SDM can be applied effectively to a complex conservation problem, and highlights the importance of clear, values-focused thinking and inclusive approaches in species recovery

Data-driven counterfactual evaluation of management outcomes to improve emergency conservation decisions

Monitoring is needed to assess conservation success and improve management, but naïve or simplistic interpretation of monitoring data can lead to poor decisions. We illustrate how to counter this risk by combining decision-support tools and quantitative counterfactual analysis. We analyzed 20 years of egg rescue for tara iti (Sternula nereis davisae) in Aotearoa New Zealand. Survival is lower for rescued eggs; however, only eggs perceived as imminently threatened by predators or weather are rescued, so concluding that rescue is ineffective would be biased. Equally, simply assuming all rescued eggswould have died if left in situ is likely to be simplistic. Instead, we used the monitoring data itself to estimate statistical support for a wide space of uncertain counterfactuals about decisions and fate of rescued eggs. Results suggest under past management, rescuing and leaving eggs would have led to approximately the same overall fledging rate, because of likely imperfect threat assessment and low survival of rescued eggs to fledging. Managers are currently working to improve both parameters. Our approach avoids both naïve interpretation of observed outcomes and simplistic assumptions thatmanagement is always justified, using the same data to obtain unbiased quantitative estimates of counterfactual support

Towards fairer conservation: Perspectives and ideas from early‐career researchers

The Black Lives Matter Movement, which gained unprecedented global momentum in mid-2020, triggered critical reflection on systemic discrimination of disadvantaged groups across many domains of society. It prompted us, as early-career researchers (ECRs) in conservation science, to examine our own awareness of ongoing injustices within our field, the role we play in perpetuating or countering these injustices, and how to move forward. Colonialist ideologies and power dynamics throughout the history of conservation practice and research have left a long-lasting legacy of inequality and systemic racism. While improvements have been made, these legacies continue to influence teaching and practice today. In this perspective piece, we reflect on the impacts of conservation’s colonial past and how the sector has developed. We then explore how current traditional routes into conservation, and the dominance of these approaches, can leave ECRs underprepared to address modern-day conservation issues due to a limited understanding of conservation’s history and key theories from other fields. We end by offering a set of suggestions encouraging others to learn and practise fairer and more inclusive conservation practices