Are We Understating the Impact of Economic Conditions on Welfare Rolls?

In this brief we argue that welfare participation is more sensitive to economic conditions than previously believed. Why? Prior research focused on short-term economic fluctuations and ignored differences between high- and low-skilled workers. As welfare is long-term (i.e., permanent) it makes more sense to make comparisons with long-term economic trends. Also, since low-skilled workers are more likely to end up on welfare, it is proper to focus on their economic opportunities. Thus, we focus on the long-term impact of economic conditions on welfare participation, and we concentrate our analysis on low-skilled workers. Specifically, we analyze long-term changes in the supply of high-paying jobs for coal and steel workers as they affect certain heavy coal- and steel-producing regions of the United States during the 1970s and 1980s. Our findings indicate that welfare participation in these regions closely mirrors the long-term local availability of high-paying jobs for low-skilled workers. This has serious policy implications for the long-term success of welfare reform

Sexually Integrated Workplaces and Divorce: Another Form of On-the-Job Search

As women have entered the work force and occupational sex segregation has declined, workers experience increased contact with the opposite sex on the job. The sex mix a worker encounters on the job should affect the cost of search for alternative mates and therefore the probability of divorce. This paper uses 1990 Census data to calculate the sex mix by industry-occupation cell. These results are then used to predict divorce among ever-married respondents in the 1990 Census and the NLSY79. The results indicate that those who work with a larger fraction of workers of the opposite sex are more likely to be divorced.