The effects of fiscal consolidation in the OECD

Despite the current recession in many parts of the OECD, fiscal consolidation is likely in many OECD economies in the 1990s. The author asks: is fiscal consolidation in the OECD in a period of low growth a recipe for global stagnation? In particular, what effects are likely in developing countries? The author starts with an overview of cuts in the U.S. fiscal deficit proposed by the Clinton administration and the extent to which European governments must cut fiscal deficits between now and 1997 to satisfy deficit targets in the Maastricht Treaty. How changes in fiscal policy are transmitted within an economy and between that economy and the rest of the world depends on whether those changes lead to permanent or temporary changes in government saving; whether they are implemented through government spending or taxes; and whether the taxes fall on households or firms. The main channels of transmission are through changes in: agents'expectations about future taxes, interest rates, exchange rates, and economic activity. The author uses the MSG2 multicountry models to quantify the ramifications of those changes. He concludes, among other things, that fiscal contraction in the OECD will probably lead to slower growth over the next several years. But the current and likely paths of fiscal policy are such that deficit reduction programs may have stimulating effect in the short run, as long as future fiscal contraction is credible. And fiscal deficit reduction will probably increase long-run output in the OECD through its effects on savings and investment. Finally, growth in the developing countries (at least total growth) may not be impaired at all by fiscal consolidationin the OECD. The negative effects of fiscal contraction will occur through lower net exports of non-OECD economies. For developing countries with open capital markets, the initial reduction in demand through lower exports can be offset by the reduction in interest rates following an inflow of capital from the countries with contracting fiscal policy. A significant decline in real global interest rates is likely to increase growth in developing countries that are debt-constrained, either directly (through private capital inflows) or indirectly (by relaxing the balance of payments constraint, allowing more resources to be channeled to domestic investment needs).Economic Theory&Research,Economic Stabilization,Environmental Economics&Policies,Banks&Banking Reform,Macroeconomic Management

Greenhouse abatement policy: insights from the G-cubed multi-country model

The third meeting of the Conference of the Parties of the Framework Convention on Climate Change held in Japan last December was a lost opportunity to set a realistic policy framework for addressing climate change in the coming decades. A number of countries proposed targets for greenhouse emissions, to be reached by a target date. The outcome was a range of different targets for each country. Analysis with the G‐cubed multi‐country model suggests that fixed targets are a costly way to address climate change. The extent of potential cost suggests the agreement will eventually fail. A better way to address climate change is to focus on uniformity in policy instruments that deliver differentiated outcomes rather than focus on differentiated policy settings.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Coordination of Monetary and Fiscal Policies in the OECD

Discontent with the functioning of the world monetary system has led to many proposals for international monetary reform. These proposals range from enhanced consultations under the current regime of floating exchange rates to a regime of fixed exchange rates, as proposed by Ronald McKinnon. In this paper we examine the implications of several alternative monetary arrangements for fiscal policy in the world economy. In particular we focus upon two issues. The first is the effects of alternative monetary arrangements on the international transmission of fiscal policy. The second is the implications of the alternative regimes for strategic aspects of fiscal policymaking.As is generally the case in the discussion of exchange regimes we find that the choice of the monetary system is crucially dependent upon the source and nature of the shocks hitting the world economy. In this paper we show that the monetary regime also has important implications for the transmission offiscal policy in the world economy and for the nature of the strategic games played by fiscal authorities. Rigid rules of the game, as under fixedexchange rates, do not necessarily eliminate the inefficient equilibriathat can occur when fiscal authorities behave non-cooperatively.

MODELLING GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE:RESULTS FOR JAPAN

In earlier papers (McKibbin and Nguyen (2001, (2002)) we introduced demographic features into the MSG3 model of the world economy, following the approach of Bryant and McKibbin (2001). In this paper we use the same theoretical technique to develop a series of models based on a consistent database from a simple two country symmetric theoretical model to the complete 4 country MSG3 model, which represents the empirical characteristics of Japan, United States, Rest of OECD and Rest of World. We explore a stylized decline in fertility similar to that experienced by Japan since the 1950 (exactly the same shock as the stylized shock used in Bryant (2004)). We first explore the properties of the theoretical model with both a global and a single country shock. This gives similar results to that found in the basic framework underlying the Bryant (2004) approach. We then move from the simplest fully optimizing framework to increasing add complexity to the model until we build a model of Japan. We explore the same shock across the models of increasing complexity in this paper and compare our results to the Bryant approach. We find that although the basic insights from the sequences of theoretical papers in the Brooking-ANU project continue to hold, the quantitative results change significantly as the model is adapted to have more characteristics of Japan. In a final section, we use the complete model to explore the likely impacts on Japan of the demographic change already experienced from 1970 and look to the likely changes to be experienced out to 2040.

The potential impact of the global financial crisis on world trade

This paper models the global financial crisis as a combination of shocks to global housing markets and sharp increases in risk premia of firms, households and international investors in a global economic model. The model has six sectors of production and trade in 15 major economies and regions. The paper shows that the shocks observed in financial markets can be used to generate the severe economic contraction in global trade and production experienced in 2009. In particular the distinction between the production and trade of durable and non durable goods plays a key role in explaining the much larger contraction in trade than GDP experienced by most economies. The paper explores the implications of the large increase in fiscal deficits and the implications of a global trade war in response to the financial crisis.Economic Theory&Research,Debt Markets,Emerging Markets,Banks&Banking Reform,Labor Policies

Macroeconomic Policies in the OECD and LDC External Adjustmemt

In this paper, the authors describe a simulation model for analyzing the effects of macroeconomic policies in the OECD on global macroeconomic equilibrium. Particular attention is paid to the effects on developing countries of alternative mixes of monetary and fiscal policies in the OECD.Though the model is quite small, it has several properties which make it attractive for policy analysis. First, the important stock-flow relationships and intertemporal budget constraints are carefully observed, so that the modelis useful for short-run and long-run analysis. Budget deficits, for example,cumulate into a stock of public debt which must be serviced, while current account deficits cumulate into a stock of foreign debt. Second, the asset markets are forward looking, so that the exchange rate is conditioned by the entire future path of policies rather than by a set of short-run expectations. Third, the model is amenable to policy optimization exercises, and in particular can be used to study the effects of policy coordination versus non-coordination in the OECD, on global macroeconomic equilibrium.

Estimates of the Costs of Kyoto-Marrakesh versus the McKibbin-Wilcoxen Blueprint

In this paper we update our earlier estimates of the cost of the Kyoto Protocol using the G-Cubed model, taking into account the new sink allowances from recent negotiations as well as allowing for multiple gases and new land clearing estimates. Rather than comparing this to the original Kyoto Protocol as other studies have done, we compare the estimates from the current Kyoto Protocol to a realistic alternative to the Kyoto Protocol outlined by McKibbin and Wilcoxen ( 1197a, 1997b, 2002). A key part of the comparison between the two alternatives is not to predict exactly what the outcome for emissions reduction might be at a future date under each approach. What we want to focus on is the importance of the inherent uncertainty about the future that should be at the heart of the design of a suatainable climate policy. To show how important uncertainty is to the design of the climate policies, we take two alternative plausible assumptions about a single aspect of the future predictions and compare the two regimes under these alternative assumptions. Since climate change is all about policy making under uncertainty it is important in comparing regimes to explore how the regimes handle aspects of uncertainty as well as the average performance of the regimes. This comparison illustrates a fundamental difference between the Kyoto Protocol and the Blueprint.climate change, Kyoto, blueprint, uncertainty, policy

Global Emissions Trading: Prospects and Pitfalls

Global Emissions Trading: Prospects and Pitfallspermit trading, climate change, Kyoto, Blueprint, Dutch Disease