Smallpox Models as Policy Tools1

Interactions between policymakers and mathematical modelers can improve biodefense strategies

The contribution of agricultural insecticide use to increasing insecticide resistance in African malaria vectors

The fight against malaria is increasingly threatened by failures in vector control due to growing insecticide resistance. This review examines the recent primary research that addresses the putative relationship between agricultural insecticide use and trends in insecticide resistance. To do so, descriptive evidence offered by the new research was categorized, and additional factors that impact the relationship between agricultural insecticide use and observed insecticide resistance in malaria vectors were identified. In 23 of the 25 relevant recent publications from across Africa, higher resistance in mosquito populations was associated with agricultural insecticide use. This association appears to be affected by crop type, farm pest management strategy and urban development

The Risk of a Mosquito-Borne Infectionin a Heterogeneous Environment

A common assumption about malaria, dengue, and other mosquito-borne infections is that the two main components of the risk of human infection—the rate at which people are bitten (human biting rate) and the proportion of mosquitoes that are infectious—are positively correlated. In fact, these two risk factors are generated by different processes and may be negatively correlated across space and time in heterogeneous environments. Uneven distribution of blood-meal hosts and larval habitat creates a spatial mosaic of demograPhic sources and sinks. Moreover, mosquito populations fluctuate temporally, forced by environmental variables such as rainfall, temperature, and humidity. These sources of spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the distribution of mosquito populations generate variability in the human biting rate, in the proportion of mosquitoes that are infectious, and in the risk of human infection. To understand how heterogeneity affects the epidemiology of mosquito-borne infections, we developed a set of simple models that incorporate heterogeneity in a stepwise fashion. These models predict that the human biting rate is highest shortly after the mosquito densities peak, near breeding sites where adult mosquitoes emerge, and around the edges of areas where humans are aggregated. In contrast, the proportion of mosquitoes that are infectious reflects the age structure of mosquito populations; it peaks where old mosquitoes are found, far from mosquito breeding habitat, and when mosquito population density is declining. Finally, we show that estimates for the average risk of infection that are based on the average entomological inoculation rate are strongly biased in heterogeneous environments

Potential Impact of Intermittent Preventive Treatment (IPT) on Spread of Drug-Resistant Malaria

BACKGROUND: Treatment of asymptomatic individuals, regardless of their malaria infection status, with regularly spaced therapeutic doses of antimalarial drugs has been proposed as a method for reducing malaria morbidity and mortality. This strategy, called intermittent preventive treatment (IPT), is currently employed for pregnant women and is being studied for infants (IPTi) as well. As with any drug-based intervention strategy, it is important to understand how implementation may affect the spread of drug-resistant parasites. This is a difficult issue to address experimentally because of the limited size and duration of IPTi trials as well as the intractability of distinguishing the spread of resistance due to conventional treatment of malaria episodes versus that due to IPTi when the same drug is used in both contexts. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using a mathematical model, we evaluated the possible impact of treating individuals with antimalarial drugs at regular intervals regardless of their infection status. We translated individual treatment strategies and drug pharmacokinetics into parasite population dynamic effects and show that immunity, treatment rate, drug decay kinetics, and presumptive treatment rate are important factors in the spread of drug-resistant parasites. Our model predicts that partially resistant parasites are more likely to spread in low-transmission areas, but fully resistant parasites are more likely to spread under conditions of high transmission, which is consistent with some epidemiological observations. We were also able to distinguish between spread of resistance due to treatment of symptomatic infections and that due to IPTi. We showed that IPTi could accelerate the spread of resistant parasites, but this effect was only likely to be significant in areas of low or unstable transmission. CONCLUSIONS: The results presented here demonstrate the importance of considering both the half-life of a drug and the existing level of resistance when choosing a drug for IPTi. Drugs to which little or no resistance exists are not advisable for IPT in high-transmission areas, but IPTi is not likely to significantly impact the spread of highly resistant parasites in areas where partial resistance is already established. IPTi is more likely to accelerate the spread of resistance in high-transmission areas than is IPT in adults (i.e., pregnant women)

The promise and potential challenges of intermittent preventive treatment for malaria in infants (IPTi)

Intermittent preventive treatment (IPT) administers a full therapeutic course of an anti-malarial drug at predetermined intervals, regardless of infection or disease status. It is recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) for protecting pregnant women from the adverse effects of malaria (IPTp) and shows great potential as a strategy for reducing illness from malaria during infancy (IPTi). Administered concurrently with standard immunizations, IPTi is expected to reduce the frequency of clinical disease, but to allow blood-stage infections to occur between treatments, thus allowing parasite-specific immunity to develop. While wide deployment of IPTi is being considered, it is important to assess other potential effects. Transmission conditions, drug choice and administration schedule will likely affect the possibility of post-treatment rebound in child morbidity and mortality and the increased spread of parasite drug resistance and should be considered when implementing IPTi

The unexpected importance of mosquito oviposition behaviour for malaria: non-productive larval habitats can be sources for malaria transmission

BACKGROUND: Mosquitoes commute between blood-meal hosts and water. Thus, heterogeneity in human biting reflects underlying spatial heterogeneity in the distribution and suitability of larval habitat as well as inherent differences in the attractiveness, suitability and distribution of blood-meal hosts. One of the possible strategies of malaria control is to identify local vector species and then attack water bodies that contain their larvae. METHODS: Biting and host seeking, not oviposition, have been the focus of most previous studies of mosquitoes and malaria transmission. This study presents a mathematical model that incorporates mosquito oviposition behaviour. RESULTS: The model demonstrates that oviposition is one potential factor explaining heterogeneous biting and vector distribution in a landscape with a heterogeneous distribution of larval habitat. Adult female mosquitoes tend to aggregate around places where they oviposit, thereby increasing the risk of malaria, regardless of the suitability of the habitat for larval development. Thus, a water body may be unsuitable for adult mosquito emergence, but simultaneously, be a source for human malaria. CONCLUSION: Larval density may be a misleading indicator of a habitat's importance for malaria control. Even if mosquitoes could be lured to oviposit in sprayed larval habitats, this would not necessarily mitigate – and might aggravate – the risk of malaria transmission. Forcing mosquitoes to fly away from humans in search of larval habitat may be a more efficient way to reduce the risk of malaria than killing larvae. Thus, draining, fouling, or filling standing water where mosquitoes oviposit can be more effective than applying larvicide

Developmental allometry and paediatric malaria

WHO estimates that 80% of mortality due to malaria occurs among infants and young children. Though it has long been established that malaria disproportionately affects children under age five, our understanding of the underlying biological mechanisms for this distribution remains incomplete. Many studies use age as an indicator of exposure, but age may affect malaria burden independently of previous exposure. Not only does the severity of malaria infection change with age, but the clinical manifestation of disease does as well: younger children are more likely to suffer severe anaemia, while older children are more likely to develop cerebral malaria. Intensity of transmission and acquired immunity are important determinants of this age variation, but age differences remain consistent over varying transmission levels. Thus, age differences in clinical presentation may involve inherent age-related factors as well as still-undiscovered facets of acquired immunity, perhaps including the rates at which relevant aspects of immunity are acquired. The concept of "allometry" - the relative growth of a part in relation to that of an entire organism or to a standard - has not previously been applied in the context of malaria infection. However, because malaria affects a number of organs and cells, including the liver, red blood cells, white blood cells, and spleen, which may intrinsically develop at rates partly independent of each other and of a child's overall size, developmental allometry may influence the course and consequences of malaria infection. Here, scattered items of evidence have been collected from a variety of disciplines, aiming to suggest possible research paths for investigating exposure-independent age differences affecting clinical outcomes of malaria infection

Reader technique as a source of variability in determining malaria parasite density by microscopy

BACKGROUND: Accurate identification and quantification of malaria parasites are critical for measuring clinical trial outcomes. Positive and negative diagnosis is usually sufficient for the assessment of therapeutic outcome, but vaccine or prophylactic drug trials require measuring density of infection as a primary endpoint. Microscopy is the most established and widely-used technique for quantifying parasite densities in the blood. METHODS: Results obtained by 24–27 expert malaria microscopists, who had independently read 895 slides from 35 donors, were analysed to understand how reader technique contributes to discrepancy in measurements of parasite density over a wide range of densities. RESULTS: Among these 35 donations, standard deviations ranged from 30% to 250% of the mean parasite density and the percent discrepancy was inversely correlated with the mean parasite density. The number of white blood cells indexed and whether parasites were counted in the thick film or thin film were shown to significantly contribute to discrepancy amongst microscopists. CONCLUSION: Errors in microscopy measurements are not widely appreciated or addressed but have serious consequences for efficacy trials, including possibly abandoning promising vaccine candidates