21 research outputs found

    Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Quantification of a Subframe with Mass Loaded Bushings

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    In the automotive industry components are often connected through rubber bushings. The bushingsĘĽ material properties are usually not well known. In computational models these properties are parametrised and their spread can be considerable. A good estimate of these parameters is important in various applications, including substructuring, and for uncertainty quantification of systems with connected components. This paper deals with the calibration of an industrial size finite element model of a car subframe with parametrised bushing models. Mass loading is used on the bushings to bring local bushing modes to a lower frequency region and impose a more realistic boundary condition in component testing. The model parameters can be calibrated in different ways. In this paper two approaches are considered. They are based on two test configurations, one with and one without mass loaded boundaries. In the first case only the bushing parameters are considered for the mass loaded boundary configuration. In the second case, consisting of two steps, the configuration without mass loaded boundaries is considered in which the bushing parameters are first fixed and other model parameters considered, and in the last step a subset of all parameters is considered. The calibration, validation and uncertainty quantification, using bootstrapping, have been performed using the open-source MATLAB tool FEMcali

    Letting the good times roll: A theory of voter inference and experimental evidence

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    This paper examines inference and attribution in a simple and ubiquitous strategic situation: a voter is faced with discerning whether a leader worked on his or her behalf after observing an informative, but noisy signal about the leader's performance. We characterize perfect Bayesian equilibria, quantal response equilibria (QRE), and provide a simple model of a heuristic-based approach, referred to as strategic naivete, within a wide class of such environments. We also discuss experiments conducted to examine human behavior within such an environment. While it is clear that the observed behavior is inconsistent with perfect Bayesian equilibrium, distinguishing between QRE and strategic naivete will require further work. We conclude with a discussion of the broader implications of probabilistic and/or heuristic-based attribution processes for electoral politics and political economy. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2007
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