Predicting the effect of local and global environmental change on shorebirds: a case study on the Exe estuary, U.K.

We used an individual-based model to assess site quality and to predict the effect of local (i.e. disturbance from a cycle path) and global (i.e. climate change) environmental change on the survival of six species of overwintering shorebirds on the Exe estuary, U.K. We also compare site quality on the Exe estuary with three other estuary Special Protection Areas (SPAs) and compare our predictions for the effects of climate change with predictions made for another southern U.K. estuary, Poole Harbour. Prey biomass densities in the Exe estuary were high for all six shorebirds, being as high as or higher than those found on other estuary SPAs. Simulations of increased levels of disturbance from a proposed cycle path along the side of the estuary predicted that disturbance of upper mudflat areas was unlikely to affect shorebird survival but that increased disturbance of nearby fields would reduce curlew survival. Shorebirds on the Exe estuary were far less seriously affected than those in Poole Harbour by reductions in mean daily temperatures, loss of terrestrial habitats and simulated sea-level rise. We conclude that the Exe estuary is a high quality estuary and that the shorebird populations modelled were less susceptible to climate change than those in Poole Harbour

Predicting site quality for shorebird communities: A case study on the Wash embayment, UK

Conservation managers responsible for estuaries are often required to monitor their site to ensure that the conservation status of any bird species for which the site is considered important is not affected by deterioration of their habitat or by disturbance of the birds themselves. Here, we use an individuals-based model to predict the quality of the Wash embayment, UK, defined in this case as overwinter survival rate, for eight shorebird species. We use the model to predict how site quality would be affected by changes in the types of prey available, prey density, mudflat area and the rate at which birds are disturbed. The results suggested that Macoma, Hydrobia and Corophium had relatively little influence on site quality for any species modelled except black-tailed godwit, despite being the preferred prey for some bird species. Arenicola marina, other annelids and Cerastoderma edule were found to be important influences on site quality. Birds began to starve, when autumn, estuary-wide food biomass density was below about 5 g AFDM m−2 and survival rates fell below 90% at 4 g AFDM m−2. One possible conservation objective for the Wash estuary would be to monitor whether the 99% confidence limit of biomass density falls below one of these limits, to determine whether site quality is being maintained. The system as a whole was predicted to be relatively insensitive to habitat loss. Black-tailed godwits were the most sensitive species, but their survival was not affected until 40% of the feeding grounds were removed. The survival of all species in the model remained high at fewer than 20 disturbances/hour. Although disturbance rates on the Wash were not measured during this study it is unlikely that present-day rates of disturbance on the Wash represent a threat to the survival of the bird species modelled. Our results show how an individuals-based model can assess present-day site quality and how it may change in the future. The model predicted prey biomasses below which survival rate decreased, which shorebird species were most vulnerable to changes in site quality, and that prey density was a more important factor in shorebird survival than habitat area on the Wash. They also show such models can be used to set maximum disturbance rates for each species by predicting how disturbance rates influence shorebird survival

Population dynamics of naturalised Manila clams Ruditapes philippinarum in British coastal waters

The Manila clam Ruditapes philippinarum was introduced to Poole Harbour (lat 50°N) on the south coast of England in 1988 as a novel species for aquaculture. Contrary to expectations, this species naturalised. We report on individual growth patterns, recruitment, mortality and production within this population. On the intertidal mudflats the abundance of clams (>5 mm in length) varied seasonally between 18 and 56 individuals m−2. There appear to be two recruitment events per year and there were 6 year classes in the population. A mid-summer decline in abundance was partly due to increased mortality but probably also a result of down-shore migration in response to high water temperatures and the development of anoxic conditions. A winter fishery removes c 75% of clams of fishable size (maximum shell length ≥40 mm) and c 20% of the annual production. The fishery depresses the maximum age and size attained by the clams but appears to be sustainable. Clam mortality due to factors other than fishing is highest in late-winter to early spring. The growth of the clams is intermediate in comparison with many published studies but remarkably good given their intertidal position. As on the coasts of the Adriatic Sea, where the clam is also non-native, the Manila clam has thrived in a shallow, eutrophic, lagoon-like system on the English coast. While the Poole Harbour population is currently Europe’s most northerly reported self-sustaining, naturalised population, given forecasts of increasing air and sea temperatures it might be expected that this species will eventually spread to more sites around the coasts of Northern Europe with associated economic and ecological consequences

Modelling the effect of environmental change on shorebirds: A case study on Poole Harbour, UK

An individuals-based model, MORPH, was used to assess the quality of Poole Harbour, UK, for five overwintering shorebirds: dunlin Calidris alpina, redshank Tringa totanus, black-tailed godwit Limosa limosa, oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus and curlew Numenius arquata. Site quality, and the effect of environmental change, was measured as predicted overwinter survival. Dunlin had the highest prey biomass densities and were the least likely to be affected by reductions in their food supply, lower temperatures or loss of terrestrial habitats. Black-tailed godwits and curlew had the lowest prey biomass densities and were the most likely to be affected by reductions in their food supply, lower temperatures and loss of terrestrial habitats. All five shorebird species were seriously affected by simulated sea-level rise. Conservation issues identified for the Poole Harbour SPA were the relatively low densities of larger size classes of polychaete worms, the importance of maintaining and managing surrounding terrestrial habitats and the effect of sea-level rise on the length of time for which intertidal food supplies are availabl

Benefits to shorebirds from invasion of a non-native shellfish

Introductions of non-native species are seen as major threats to ecosystem function and biodiversity. However, invasions of aquatic habitats by non-native species are known to benefit generalist consumers that exhibit dietary switches and prey upon the exotic species in addition to or in preference to native ones. There is, however, little knowledge concerning the population-level implications of such dietary changes. Here, we show that the introduction of the Manila clam Tapes philippinarum into European coastal waters has presented the Eurasian oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus ostralegus with a new food resource and resulted in a previously unknown predator–prey interaction between these species. We demonstrate, with an individuals-based simulation model, that the presence of this non-native shellfish, even at the current low density, has reduced the predicted over-winter mortality of oystercatchers at one recently invaded site. Further increases in clam population density are predicted to have even more pronounced effects on the density dependence of oystercatcher over-winter mortality. These results suggest that if the Manila clam were to spread around European coastal waters, a process which is likely to be facilitated by global warming, this could have considerable benefits for many shellfish-eating shorebird populations