Could Corbyn win an election by mobilising non-voters? Not if he doesn’t win over Conservative supporters too

Less than a year after the election, average polls suggest that Labour continue to poll at about the same level or worse than the 2015 result. Anthony McDonnell writes that this is worrying for the Left, as previous trends indicate their poll numbers usually rise significantly relative to the Conservatives’ within months of the Tories taking office. He argues that if Labour doesn’t widen its lead in the polls now, mobilising new voters alone will not be enough to win the 2020 general election

Fracking is unlikely to reduce gas prices to the extent its proponents desire

The United Kingdom’s Prime Minister, David Cameron has expressed his desire to build a shale gas industry in Britain as a way of lowering cost, seeking to replicate the case of the U.S. where the extraction of shale gas has caused prices to plummet. However, as Anthony McDonnell argues, the UK and U.S. differ in many respects when it comes to shale gas. Importantly, the UK is integrated in the European energy market which would hoover up production in excess of domestic needs, keeping prices high as opposed to in America where an export ban means prices have plummeted due to a glut of supply

Framework for Event-based Semidistributed Modeling that Unifies the SCS-CN Method, VIC, PDM, and TOPMODEL

Hydrologists and engineers may choose from a range of semidistributed rainfall-runoff models such as VIC, PDM, and TOPMODEL, all of which predict runoff from a distribution of watershed properties. However, these models are not easily compared to event-based data and are missing ready-to-use analytical expressions that are analogous to the SCS-CN method. The SCS-CN method is an event-based model that describes the runoff response with a rainfall-runoff curve that is a function of the cumulative storm rainfall and antecedent wetness condition. Here we develop an event-based probabilistic storage framework and distill semidistributed models into analytical, event-based expressions for describing the rainfall-runoff response. The event-based versions called VICx, PDMx, and TOPMODELx also are extended with a spatial description of the runoff concept of ‘‘prethreshold’’ and ‘‘threshold-excess’’ runoff, which occur, respectively, before and after infiltration exceeds a storage capacity threshold. For total storm rainfall and antecedent wetness conditions, the resulting ready-to-use analytical expressions define the source areas (fraction of the watershed) that produce runoff by each mechanism. They also define the probability density function (PDF) representing the spatial variability of runoff depths that are cumulative values for the storm duration, and the average unit area runoff, which describes the so-called runoff curve. These new event-based semidistributed models and the traditional SCS-CN method are unified by the same general expression for the runoff curve. Since the general runoff curve may incorporate different model distributions, it may ease the way for relating such distributions to land use, climate, topography, ecology, geology, and other characteristics

Reply to Comment by Fred L. Ogden et al. on Beyond the SCS-CN Method: A Theoretical Framework for Spatially Lumped Rainfall-Runoff Response

Though Ogden et al. list several shortcomings of the original SCS-CN method, fit for purpose is a key consideration in hydrological modelling, as shown by the adoption of SCS-CN method in many design standards. The theoretical framework of Bartlett et al. [2016a] reveals a family of semidistributed models, of which the SCS-CN method is just one member. Other members include event-based versions of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and TOPMODEL. This general model allows us to move beyond the limitations of the original SCS-CN method under different rainfall-runoff mechanisms and distributions for soil and rainfall variability. Future research should link this general model approach to different hydrogeographic settings, in line with the call for action proposed by Ogden et al

Five ways libraries are using Instagram to share collections and draw public interest.

Alongside universities, libraries and librarians are now using social media platforms to connect with users in a range of exciting and innovating ways. The latest platform that libraries are experimenting with is Instagram, which allows users to take photos on their smart phones, apply exciting filters and add hashtags, and then share these images online with their followers. Amy Mollett and Anthony McDonnell investigate how libraries are making the most of this visually-engaging platform

Funding Antibiotic Innovation with Vouchers: Recommendations on How to Strengthen A Flawed Incentive Policy

A serious need to spur antibiotic innovation has arisen because of the lack of antibiotics to combat certain conditions and the overuse of other antibiotics leading to greater antibiotic resistance. In response to this need, proposals have been made to Congress to fund antibiotic research through a voucher program for new antibiotics, which would delay generic entry for any drug, even potential blockbuster lifesaving generics. We find this proposal to be inefficient, in part because of the mismatch between the private value of the voucher and the public value of the antibiotic innovation. However, vouchers have the political advantage in the United States of being able to raise sufficient amounts of money without annual appropriations from Congress. We propose that if antibiotic vouchers are to be considered, the design should include dollar and time caps to limit their volatility, sufficient advance notice to protect generic manufacturers, and market-based linkages between the value of the voucher and the value of the antibiotic innovation. We also explore a second option: The federal government could auction vouchers to the highest bidders and use the money to create an antibiotics innovation fund

Management Research on Multinational Corporations: A Methodological Critique

In the context of burgeoning research on multinational corporations (MNCs), this paper addresses the issue of the representativeness of databases of MNCs in Ireland. It identifies some important deficiencies in existing databases much used by scholars in the field. Drawing on the international literature, it finds that this problem also characterises research on MNCs in many other countries. In the Irish context, we find that the extant empirical research has generally excluded two key categories of MNCs, namely, (a) foreign MNCs which are not grant-aided by the main industrial promotions agencies and (b) Irish-owned MNCs. The paper outlines our experience in identifying and addressing these deficiencies and describes the methods that might be employed in more precisely defining the MNC population in Ireland. More generally the paper reviews some of the issues and obstacles confronting scholars investigating the MNC sector in Ireland and abroad.

Stochastic Rainfall-runoff Model with Explicit Soil Moisture Dynamics

Stream runoff is perhaps the most poorly represented process in ecohydrological stochastic soil moisture models. Here we present a rainfall-runoff model with a new stochastic description of runoff linked to soil moisture dynamics. We describe the rainfall-runoff system as the joint probability density function (PDF) of rainfall, soil moisture and runoff forced by random, instantaneous jumps of rainfall. We develop a master equation for the soil moisture PDF that accounts explicitly for a general state-dependent rainfall-runoff transformation. This framework is then used to derive the joint rainfall-runoff and soil moisture-runoff PDFs. Runoff is initiated by a soil moisture threshold and a linear progressive partitioning of rainfall based on the soil moisture status. We explore the dependence of the PDFs on the rainfall occurrence PDF (homogeneous or state-dependent Poisson process) and the rainfall magnitude PDF (exponential or mixed-exponential distribution). We calibrate the model to 63 years of rainfall and runoff data from the Upper Little Tennessee watershed (USA) and show how the new model can reproduce the measured runoff PDF

Superbugs: are we returning to an era where bacteria are a major killer without a cure?

Antibiotics - drugs that can prevent and treat infections - are becoming less effective as a result of drug resistance. Anthony McDonnell gives an overview of the current situation and its causes, and outlines some of the actions that can be taken to prevent the rise of resistance and its catastrophic consequences