Climate change impacts on wind energy generation in Ireland

An ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model simulation data is used to examine the impacts of climate change on offshore and onshore wind energy genera- tion in Ireland. Two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) are analysed for the mid-term (2041–2060) and the long-term (2081–2100) future. Wind energy is projected to decrease (≤2%) overall in future climate scenarios. Changes are evident by mid-century and are more pronounced by late 21st century, particularly for RCP 8.5 offshore. Seasonally, wind energy is projected to decrease by less than 6% in summer and to increase slightly in winter (up to 1.1%). The distinct changes in different parts of the power curve, presented here for the first time, show a reversed pattern of duration at certain levels of the power curve. In summer, there is an increase of low-power and a decrease of high-power generation, whereas during winter, there is a projected increase in the time spent at high power. This could lead to diverse consequences for system operators depending on the season. The impacts of climate change on the duration and frequency of long periods (longer than 24 h) of low-/high-power wind energy events in Ireland are also presented. The frequency of low-power events is projected to increase slightly, especially during summer. Onshore and offshore events are considered separately, demonstrating the complementarity of developing both onshore and offshore wind farms for future energy systems. Regional analysis highlights the benefit of developing a geographically dispersed wind farm network incorporating different local wind conditions

Affective and perceptual responses during reduced-exertion high-intensity interval training (REHIT)

We have previously demonstrated that reduced-exertion high-intensity interval training (REHIT) is a genuinely time-efficient exercise strategy for improving cardiometabolic health. Here, we examined the affective and perceptual responses to REHIT. Eight young men and women (age 21 ± 1 y, BMI 24.9 ± 2.1 m/kg2, V̇O2max 39 ± 10 ml/kg/min) and 11 men with type 2 diabetes (T2D; age 52 ± 6 y, BMI 29.7 ± 3.1 m/kg2, V̇O2max 29 ± 5 ml/kg/min) took part in three-arm crossover trials with RPE and affective valence measured during, and enjoyment and exercise preferences measured following either: 1) REHIT (2 × 20-s sprints in a 10-min exercise session), 2) HIIT (10 × 1-min efforts) and 3) 30 min MICT. Furthermore, 19 young men and women (age 25 ± 6 y, BMI 24 ± 4 m/kg2, V̇O2max 34 ± 8 ml/kg/min) completed a 6-week REHIT intervention with affective valence during an acute REHIT session measured before and after training. Affect decreases (briefly) during REHIT, but recovers rapidly, and the decline is not significantly different when compared to MICT or HIIT in either healthy participants or T2D patients. Young sedentary participants reported similar levels of enjoyment for REHIT, MICT and HIIT, but 7 out of 8 had a preference for REHIT. Conversely, T2D patients tended to report lower levels of enjoyment with REHIT compared with MICT. The decrease in affective valence observed during an acute REHIT session was significantly attenuated following training. We conclude that affective and perceptual responses to REHIT are no more negative compared to those associated with MICT or HIIT, refuting claims that supramaximal sprint interval training protocols are associated with inherent negative responses

Preoperative Rectal Cancer Management: Wide International Practice Makes Outcome Comparison Challenging: Reply

In a letter to the editor Dr. Hottenrott provides valuable comments on our survey describing international preoperative rectal cancer management. In our opinion, three key messages are derived from our survey: First, most surgeons agree to neoadjuvant treatment when there is an increased risk of finding histologically positive circumferential margins. In addition, we found more than 40 other indications for neoadjuvant treatment (see our Table 4). This emphasizes the need for an international agreement, as different indications for neoadjuvant treatment will select noncomparable groups of patients in outcome studies. Second, we have shown (see our Table 6) that multidisciplinary team (MDT) meetings significantly influence several important decisions in preoperative rectal cancer management. Interestingly, centers with regular MDT have a higher rate of using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) (Odds Ratio [OR] = 3.62) and consider a threatened circumferential resection margin (CRM) as indication for neoadjuvant treatment (OR = 5.67). We believe that MDT improves preoperative management of rectal cancer by increasing adherence to national guidelines. Similar discussions in international rectal cancer societies are needed aiming towards an international consensus statement. Finally, our survey revealed sparse use (35% of all cases) of MRI. The goal for the radiologic examination in rectal cancer is to explore the tumor’s relation to nearby anatomical structures. This evaluation will conclude with TNM staging, important for chemoradiotheraphy, surgical treatment, and prognosis. Magnetic resonance imaging has a central role in this evaluation and should be the first choice radiologic modality. Not only is MRI crucial in detection of TNM stage but also plays a central role in determination of the tumor’s distance to the mesorectal fascia and the CRM. Magnetic resonance imaging has moderate sensitivity on T1 and T2 tumors, and should be supplemented with rectal ultrasound

The development and validation of a scoring tool to predict the operative duration of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background: The ability to accurately predict operative duration has the potential to optimise theatre efficiency and utilisation, thus reducing costs and increasing staff and patient satisfaction. With laparoscopic cholecystectomy being one of the most commonly performed procedures worldwide, a tool to predict operative duration could be extremely beneficial to healthcare organisations. Methods: Data collected from the CholeS study on patients undergoing cholecystectomy in UK and Irish hospitals between 04/2014 and 05/2014 were used to study operative duration. A multivariable binary logistic regression model was produced in order to identify significant independent predictors of long (> 90 min) operations. The resulting model was converted to a risk score, which was subsequently validated on second cohort of patients using ROC curves. Results: After exclusions, data were available for 7227 patients in the derivation (CholeS) cohort. The median operative duration was 60 min (interquartile range 45–85), with 17.7% of operations lasting longer than 90 min. Ten factors were found to be significant independent predictors of operative durations > 90 min, including ASA, age, previous surgical admissions, BMI, gallbladder wall thickness and CBD diameter. A risk score was then produced from these factors, and applied to a cohort of 2405 patients from a tertiary centre for external validation. This returned an area under the ROC curve of 0.708 (SE = 0.013, p  90 min increasing more than eightfold from 5.1 to 41.8% in the extremes of the score. Conclusion: The scoring tool produced in this study was found to be significantly predictive of long operative durations on validation in an external cohort. As such, the tool may have the potential to enable organisations to better organise theatre lists and deliver greater efficiencies in care

Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis

Extremely short duration interval exercise improves 24-h glycaemia in men with type 2 diabetes

PurposeReduced-exertion high-intensity interval training (REHIT) is a genuinely time-efficient exercise intervention that improves aerobic capacity and blood pressure in men with type 2 diabetes. However, the acute effects of REHIT on 24-h glycaemia have not been examined.Methods11 men with type 2 diabetes (mean ± SD: age, 52 ± 6 years; BMI, 29.7 ± 3.1 kg/m2; HbA1c, 7.0 ± 0.8%) participated in a randomised, four-trial crossover study, with continual interstitial glucose measurements captured during a 24-h dietary-standardised period following either (1) no exercise (CON); (2) 30 min of continuous exercise (MICT); (3) 10 × 1 min at ~ 90 HRmax (HIIT; time commitment, ~ 25 min); and (4) 2 × 20 s ‘all-out’ sprints (REHIT; time commitment, 10 min).ResultsCompared to CON, mean 24-h glucose was lower following REHIT (mean ± 95%CI: − 0.58 ± 0.41 mmol/L, p = 0.008, d = 0.55) and tended to be lower with MICT (− 0.37 ± 0.41 mmol/L, p = 0.08, d = 0.35), but was not significantly altered following HIIT (− 0.37 ± 0.59 mmol/L, p = 0.31, d = 0.35). This seemed to be largely driven by a lower glycaemic response (area under the curve) to dinner following both REHIT and MICT (− 11%, p  0.9 for both) but not HIIT (− 4%, p = 0.22, d = 0.38). Time in hyperglycaemia appeared to be reduced with all three exercise conditions compared with CON (REHIT: − 112 ± 63 min, p = 0.002, d = 0.50; MICT: -115 ± 127 min, p = 0.08, d = 0.50; HIIT − 125 ± 122 min, p = 0.04, d = 0.54), whilst indices of glycaemic variability were not significantly altered.ConclusionREHIT may offer a genuinely time-efficient exercise option for improving 24-h glycaemia in men with type 2 diabetes and warrants further study

Measurement of t(t)over-bar normalised multi-differential cross sections in pp collisions at root s=13 TeV, and simultaneous determination of the strong coupling strength, top quark pole mass, and parton distribution functions

Peer reviewe

MUSiC : a model-unspecific search for new physics in proton-proton collisions at root s=13TeV

Results of the Model Unspecific Search in CMS (MUSiC), using proton-proton collision data recorded at the LHC at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb(-1), are presented. The MUSiC analysis searches for anomalies that could be signatures of physics beyond the standard model. The analysis is based on the comparison of observed data with the standard model prediction, as determined from simulation, in several hundred final states and multiple kinematic distributions. Events containing at least one electron or muon are classified based on their final state topology, and an automated search algorithm surveys the observed data for deviations from the prediction. The sensitivity of the search is validated using multiple methods. No significant deviations from the predictions have been observed. For a wide range of final state topologies, agreement is found between the data and the standard model simulation. This analysis complements dedicated search analyses by significantly expanding the range of final states covered using a model independent approach with the largest data set to date to probe phase space regions beyond the reach of previous general searches.Peer reviewe

Measurement of prompt open-charm production cross sections in proton-proton collisions at root s=13 TeV

The production cross sections for prompt open-charm mesons in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13TeV are reported. The measurement is performed using a data sample collected by the CMS experiment corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 29 nb(-1). The differential production cross sections of the D*(+/-), D-+/-, and D-0 ((D) over bar (0)) mesons are presented in ranges of transverse momentum and pseudorapidity 4 < p(T) < 100 GeV and vertical bar eta vertical bar < 2.1, respectively. The results are compared to several theoretical calculations and to previous measurements.Peer reviewe

Search for supersymmetry in events with one lepton and multiple jets in proton-proton collisions at root s=13 TeV

Peer reviewe