A Methodology for Supersonic Commercial Market Estimation and Environmental Impact Evaluation (Part II)

Presented at AIAA Aviation Conference 2020With the increasing research efforts in civil supersonic transport (SST) during the past decade, companies like Boom and Aerion are making the comeback of civil supersonic flight more promising than ever. Both companies believe that substantial demand exists in civil supersonic aviation, and opportunities are present. However, many regulatory hurdles and operational constraints impose strict limitations on supersonic flight and should not be overlooked. In addition, these aircraft are likely to have higher fuel burn per passenger compared to that for similarly-sized subsonic aircraft, and their effect on fleet-level emissions is unknown. In Part I of this two-part study, the research team successfully demonstrated a methodology that employs a bottom-up approach for estimating the future demand for supersonic commercial operation and its associated fuel burn and CO2 emission, using only publicly available subsonic baseline-fleet data. This paper seeks to fill the gaps and assumptions identified in the Part I paper by using robust, non-public data, and provides updated results on market estimation and environmental impact (in terms of both CO2 and NOx) between 2035 and 2050.This project has received funding from the Clean Sky 2 (CS2) Joint Undertaking (JU) under grant agreement No.864521. The JU receives support from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme and the Clean Sky 2 JU