Epidemic spreading on interconnected networks

Many real networks are not isolated from each other but form networks of networks, often interrelated in non trivial ways. Here, we analyze an epidemic spreading process taking place on top of two interconnected complex networks. We develop a heterogeneous mean field approach that allows us to calculate the conditions for the emergence of an endemic state. Interestingly, a global endemic state may arise in the coupled system even though the epidemics is not able to propagate on each network separately, and even when the number of coupling connections is small. Our analytic results are successfully confronted against large-scale numerical simulations

Comparison of machine learning approaches for positive airway pressure adherence prediction in a veteran cohort

BackgroundAdherence to positive airway pressure (PAP) therapy for sleep apnea is suboptimal, particularly in the veteran population. Accurately identifying those best suited for other therapy or additional interventions may improve adherence. We evaluated various machine learning algorithms to predict 90-day adherence.MethodsThe cohort of VA Northeast Ohio Health Care system patients who were issued a PAP machine (January 1, 2010–June 30, 2015) had demographics, comorbidities, and medications at the time of polysomnography obtained from the electronic health record. The data were split 60:20:20 into training, calibration, and validation data sets, with no use of validation data for model development. We constructed models for the first 90-day adherence period (% nights ≥4 h use) using the following algorithms: linear regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, elastic net, ridge regression, gradient boosted machines, support vector machine regression, Bayes-based models, and neural nets. Prediction performance was evaluated in the validation data set using root mean square error (RMSE).ResultsThe 5,047 participants were 38.3 ± 11.9 years old, and 96.1% male, with 36.8% having coronary artery disease and 52.6% with depression. The median adherence was 36.7% (interquartile range: 0%, 86.7%). The gradient boosted machine was superior to other machine learning techniques (RMSE 37.2). However, the performance was similar and not clinically useful for all models without 30-day data. The 30-day PAP data and using raw diagnoses and medications (vs. grouping by type) improved the RMSE to 24.27.ConclusionComparing multiple prediction algorithms using electronic medical record information, we found that none has clinically meaningful performance. Better adherence predictive measures may offer opportunities for personalized tailoring of interventions

Health of Philippine Emigrants Study (HoPES): study design and rationale.

BackgroundImmigrants to the United States are usually healthier than their U.S.-born counterparts, yet the health of immigrants declines with duration of stay in the U.S. This pattern is often seen for numerous health problems such as obesity, and is usually attributed to acculturation (the adoption of "American" behaviors and norms). However, an alternative explanation is secular trends, given that rates of obesity have been rising globally. Few studies of immigrants are designed to distinguish the effects of acculturation versus secular trends, in part because most studies of immigrants are cross-sectional, lack baseline data prior to migration, and do not have a comparison group of non-migrants in the country of origin. This paper describes the Health of Philippine Emigrants Study (HoPES), a study designed to address many of these limitations.MethodsHoPES is a dual-cohort, longitudinal, transnational study. The first cohort consisted of Filipinos migrating to the United States (n = 832). The second cohort consisted of non-migrant Filipinos who planned to remain in the Philippines (n = 805). Baseline data were collected from both cohorts in 2017 in the Philippines, with follow-up data collection planned over 3 years in either the U.S. for the migrant cohort or the Philippines for the non-migrant cohort. At baseline, interviewers administered semi-structured questionnaires that assessed demographic characteristics, diet, physical activity, stress, and immigration experiences. Interviewers also measured weight, height, waist and hip circumferences, blood pressure, and collected dried blood spot samples.DiscussionMigrants enrolled in the study appear to be representative of recent Filipino migrants to the U.S. Additionally, migrant and non-migrant study participants are comparable on several characteristics that we attempted to balance at baseline, including age, gender, and education. HoPES is a unique study that approximates a natural experiment from which to study the effects of immigration on obesity and other health problems. A number of innovative methodological strategies were pursued to expand the boundaries of current immigrant health research. Key to accomplishing this research was investment in building collaborative relationships with stakeholders across the U.S. and the Philippines with shared interest in the health of migrants

Vitamin D and Biomarkers of Sex Steroid Hormones Are Non-Linearly and Inversely Related to All-Cause Mortality: Results from NHANES III

Background: In men, hypovitaminosis D as well as high and low testosterone levels have been linked to adverse events, including death. A biological interaction has been previously suggested between vitamin D and androgens. In a cohort study using Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data, we simultaneously investigated circulating vitamin D and biomarkers of sex steroid hormones as predictors of all-cause mortality. Methods: Age-adjusted and fully-adjusted Cox regression models were constructed to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI). Whereas the vitamin D sufficient group (25(OH)D3 ≥30 ng/ml) was selected as a referent, biomarkers of sex steroid hormones (testosterone, estradiol, SHBG) were defined as Loge-transformed continuous variables. Results: Of 1,472 men with a mean age of 42.1 years at baseline, 382 died over a median of 192 months of follow-up. Estradiol levels were significantly higher among vitamin D deficient compared to vitamin D sufficient men and sex hormone binding globulin level was significantly higher in vitamin D sufficient compared to vitamin D insufficient or deficient groups. An inverse non-linear relationship was observed between all-cause mortality rate and levels of testosterone, estradiol and vitamin D, in fully-adjusted models. There were no significant interaction effects between vitamin D and sex steroid hormones in relation to all-cause mortality rate. Conclusions: Vitamin D and sex steroid hormones, but not sex hormone binding globulin, may be inversely and non-linearly related to all-cause mortality among adult men, after adjustment for baseline demographic, socioeconomic, lifestyle and clinical characteristics

Screening asymptomatic men for prostate cancer::a comparison of international guidelines on prostate-specific antigen testing

OBJECTIVE: To summarise and compare the key recommendations on prostate-specific antigen (PSA)-based screening for prostate cancer, and so highlight where more evidence is required to facilitate consistent recommendations. METHODS: The Medline database and websites of 18 national screening organisations and professional associations were searched between January 2010 and November 2020 to identify screening guidelines published in English, considering recent clinical trials. RESULTS: Population-based PSA testing of asymptomatic men is not widely recommended. Guidelines emphasize shared patient-clinician decision making. For ‘average-risk’ men choosing to be screened, the recommended age varies from 50–55 to 70 years, alongside consideration of life expectancy (ranging from 7–15 years). Screening intervals, when specified, are biennial (most common), annual, or determined from baseline PSA. The earliest age for screening high-risk men (frequently defined as of African descent or with a family history of prostate cancer) is 40 years, but recommendations often defer to clinical judgement. CONCLUSIONS: Population screening of asymptomatic men is not widely recommended. Instead, balancing the potential harms and benefits of PSA testing is endorsed. Variation between guidelines stems from differing interpretations of key trials and could lead to clinician-dependent screening views. The development of clinical decision aids and international consensus on guidelines may help reduce national and international variation on how men are counselled

Getting to Evo-Devo: Concepts and Challenges for Students Learning Evolutionary Developmental Biology

To examine how well biology majors have achieved the necessary foundation in evolution, numerous studies have examined how students learn natural selection. However, no studies to date have examined how students learn developmental aspects of evolution (evo-devo). Although evo-devo plays an increasing role in undergraduate biology curricula, we find that instruction often addresses development cursorily, with most of the treatment embedded within instruction on evolution. Based on results of surveys and interviews with students, we suggest that teaching core concepts (CCs) within a framework that integrates supporting concepts (SCs) from both evolutionary and developmental biology can improve evo-devo instruction. We articulate CCs, SCs, and foundational concepts (FCs) that provide an integrative framework to help students master evo-devo concepts and to help educators address specific conceptual difficulties their students have with evo-devo. We then identify the difficulties that undergraduates have with these concepts. Most of these difficulties are of two types: those that are ubiquitous among students in all areas of biology and those that stem from an inadequate understanding of FCs from developmental, cell, and molecular biology

Structural and solution speciation studies on selected [Cu(NN)(OO)] complexes and an investigation of their biomimetic activity, ROS generation and their cytotoxicity in normoxic, hypoxic and anoxic environments in MCF-7 breast cancer-derived cells

Reactive oxygen species(ROS) generation with subsequent DNA damage is one of the principle mechanisms of action assigned to copper-based anticancer complexes. The efficacy of this type of chemotherapeutic may be reduced in the low oxygen environment of tumours. In this study the cytotoxicity of three complexes, [Cu(dips)(phen)] (1), [Cu(ph)(phen)]·2H2O (2) and [Cu(ph)(bpy)]·H2O (3) (disp: 3,5-diisopropylsalicylate, phen: 1,10- phenanthroline, ph: phthalate, bpy: 2,2′-bipyridyl) were assessed for anticancer activity in the breast-cancer derived MCF-7 line under normoxic, hypoxic and anoxic conditions. In an immortalised keratinocyte HaCaT cell line, the cytotoxicity of complexes 2 and 3 was significantly reduced under both normoxic and hypoxic conditions, whilst the cytotoxicity of complex 1 was increased under hypoxic conditions. The ability of the complexes to generate ROS in the MCF-7 cell line was evaluated as was their ability to act as superoxide dismutase(SOD) and catalase mimics using a yeast cell assay. ROS generation was significant for complexes 2 and 3, less so for complex 1 though all three complexes had SOD mimetic ability. Given the ternary nature of the complexes, solution speciation studies were undertaken but were only successful for complex 3, due to solubility issues with the other two complexes. The concentration distribution of various species, formed in aqueous solution, was evaluated as a function of pH and confirmed that complex 3 is the dominant species at physiological pH in the mM concentration range. However, as its concentration diminishes, it experiences a progressive dissociation, leading to the formation of binary complexes of bpy alongside unbound phthalate. © 2023 The Author