Is eastern Mongolia drying? A long-term perspective of a multidecadal trend

Temperatures in semiarid Mongolia have rapidly risen over the past few decades, and increases in drought, urban development, mining, and agriculture have intensified demands on limited water resources. Understanding long-term streamflow variation is critical for Mongolia, particularly if alterations in streamflow are being considered and because of the potential negative impacts of drought on the animal agriculture sector. Here, we present a temporally and spatially improved streamflow reconstruction for the Kherlen River. We have added 11 new records in comparison with two in the original 2001 reconstruction. This new reconstruction extends from 1630 to 2007 and places the most recent droughts in a multicentennial perspective. We find that variations in streamflow have been much greater in the past than in the original study. There was higher variability in the mid to late 1700s, ranging from severe and extended drought conditions from 1723 to 1739 and again in 1768–1778 to two decadal length episodes of very wet conditions in the mid 1700s and late 1700s. Reduced amplitude is seen in the mid-1800s, and several pluvial events are reconstructed for the 1900s. Although recent droughts are severe and disturbing economic and ecological systems in Mongolia and it appears that eastern Mongolia is drying, the drying trend since the late 1900s might in fact be accentuated by a change from a particularly wet era in Mongolia. The recent drought might be a return to more characteristic hydroclimatic conditions of the past four centuries in Mongolia

FIRED (Fire Events Delineation): An Open, Flexible Algorithm and Database of US Fire Events Derived from the MODIS Burned Area Product (2001-2019)

Harnessing the fire data revolution, i.e., the abundance of information from satellites, government records, social media, and human health sources, now requires complex and challenging data integration approaches. Defining fire events is key to that effort. In order to understand the spatial and temporal characteristics of fire, or the classic fire regime concept, we need to critically define fire events from remote sensing data. Events, fundamentally a geographic concept with delineated spatial and temporal boundaries around a specific phenomenon that is homogenous in some property, are key to understanding fire regimes and more importantly how they are changing. Here, we describe Fire Events Delineation (FIRED), an event-delineation algorithm, that has been used to derive fire events (N = 51,871) from the MODIS MCD64 burned area product for the coterminous US (CONUS) from January 2001 to May 2019. The optimized spatial and temporal parameters to cluster burned area pixels into events were an 11-day window and a 5-pixel (2315 m) distance, when optimized against 13,741 wildfire perimeters in the CONUS from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity record. The linear relationship between the size of individual FIRED and Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) events for the CONUS was strong (R2 = 0.92 for all events). Importantly, this algorithm is open-source and flexible, allowing the end user to modify the spatio-temporal threshold or even the underlying algorithm approach as they see fit. We expect the optimized criteria to vary across regions, based on regional distributions of fire event size and rate of spread. We describe the derived metrics provided in a new national database and how they can be used to better understand US fire regimes. The open, flexible FIRED algorithm could be utilized to derive events in any satellite product. We hope that this open science effort will help catalyze a community-driven, data-integration effort (termed OneFire) to build a more complete picture of fire.</p

Parallelized computational 3D video microscopy of freely moving organisms at multiple gigapixels per second

To study the behavior of freely moving model organisms such as zebrafish (Danio rerio) and fruit flies (Drosophila) across multiple spatial scales, it would be ideal to use a light microscope that can resolve 3D information over a wide field of view (FOV) at high speed and high spatial resolution. However, it is challenging to design an optical instrument to achieve all of these properties simultaneously. Existing techniques for large-FOV microscopic imaging and for 3D image measurement typically require many sequential image snapshots, thus compromising speed and throughput. Here, we present 3D-RAPID, a computational microscope based on a synchronized array of 54 cameras that can capture high-speed 3D topographic videos over a 135-cm^2 area, achieving up to 230 frames per second at throughputs exceeding 5 gigapixels (GPs) per second. 3D-RAPID features a 3D reconstruction algorithm that, for each synchronized temporal snapshot, simultaneously fuses all 54 images seamlessly into a globally-consistent composite that includes a coregistered 3D height map. The self-supervised 3D reconstruction algorithm itself trains a spatiotemporally-compressed convolutional neural network (CNN) that maps raw photometric images to 3D topography, using stereo overlap redundancy and ray-propagation physics as the only supervision mechanism. As a result, our end-to-end 3D reconstruction algorithm is robust to generalization errors and scales to arbitrarily long videos from arbitrarily sized camera arrays. The scalable hardware and software design of 3D-RAPID addresses a longstanding problem in the field of behavioral imaging, enabling parallelized 3D observation of large collections of freely moving organisms at high spatiotemporal throughputs, which we demonstrate in ants (Pogonomyrmex barbatus), fruit flies, and zebrafish larvae

Evaluation of Daily Low-Dose Prednisolone During Upper Respiratory Tract Infection to Prevent Relapse in Children With Relapsing Steroid-Sensitive Nephrotic Syndrome: The PREDNOS 2 Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance: In children with corticosteroid-sensitive nephrotic syndrome, many relapses are triggered by upper respiratory tract infections. Four small studies found that administration of daily low-dose prednisolone for 5 to 7 days at the time of an upper respiratory tract infection reduced the risk of relapse, but the generalizability of their findings is limited by location of the studies and selection of study population. / Objective: To investigate the use of daily low-dose prednisolone for the treatment of upper respiratory tract infection-related relapses. / Design, Setting, and Participants: This double-blind, placebo-controlled randomized clinical trial (Prednisolone in Nephrotic Syndrome [PREDNOS] 2) evaluated 365 children with relapsing steroid-sensitive nephrotic syndrome with and without background immunosuppressive treatment at 122 pediatric departments in the UK from February 1, 2013, to January 31, 2020. Data from the modified intention-to-treat population were analyzed from July 1, 2020, to December 31, 2020. / Interventions: At the start of an upper respiratory tract infection, children received 6 days of prednisolone, 15 mg/m2 daily, or matching placebo preparation. Those already taking alternate-day prednisolone rounded their daily dose using trial medication to the equivalent of 15 mg/m2 daily or their alternate-day dose, whichever was greater. / Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the incidence of first upper respiratory tract infection-related relapse. Secondary outcomes included overall rate of relapse, changes in background immunosuppressive treatment, cumulative dose of prednisolone, rates of serious adverse events, incidence of corticosteroid adverse effects, and quality of life. / Results: The modified intention-to-treat analysis population comprised 271 children (mean [SD] age, 7.6 [3.5] years; 174 [64.2%] male), with 134 in the prednisolone arm and 137 in the placebo arm. The number of patients experiencing an upper respiratory tract infection-related relapse was 56 of 131 (42.7%) in the prednisolone arm and 58 of 131 (44.3%) in the placebo arm (adjusted risk difference, -0.02; 95% CI, -0.14 to 0.10; P = .70). No evidence was found that the treatment effect differed according to background immunosuppressive treatment. No significant differences were found in secondary outcomes between the treatment arms. A post hoc subgroup analysis assessing the primary outcome in 54 children of South Asian ethnicity (risk ratio, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.40-1.10) vs 208 children of other ethnicity (risk ratio, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.81-1.54) found no difference in efficacy of intervention in those of South Asian ethnicity (test for interaction P = .09). / Conclusions and Relevance: The results of PREDNOS 2 suggest that administering 6 days of daily low-dose prednisolone at the time of an upper respiratory tract infection does not reduce the risk of relapse of nephrotic syndrome in children in the UK. Further work is needed to investigate interethnic differences in treatment response. / Trial Registration: isrctn.org / Identifier: ISRCTN10900733; EudraCT 2012-003476-39

Biosecurity and Yield Improvement Technologies Are Strategic Complements in the Fight against Food Insecurity

The delivery of food security via continued crop yield improvement alone is not an effective food security strategy, and must be supported by pre- and post-border biosecurity policies to guard against perverse outcomes. In the wake of the green revolution, yield gains have been in steady decline, while post-harvest crop losses have increased as a result of insufficiently resourced and uncoordinated efforts to control spoilage throughout global transport and storage networks. This paper focuses on the role that biosecurity is set to play in future food security by preventing both pre- and post-harvest losses, thereby protecting crop yield. We model biosecurity as a food security technology that may complement conventional yield improvement policies if the gains in global farm profits are sufficient to offset the costs of implementation and maintenance. Using phytosanitary measures that slow global spread of the Ug99 strain of wheat stem rust as an example of pre-border biosecurity risk mitigation and combining it with post-border surveillance and invasive alien species control efforts, we estimate global farm profitability may be improved by over US$4.5 billion per annum

Kinetics of ATP release following compression injury of a peripheral nerve trunk

Compression and/or contusion of a peripheral nerve trunk can result in painful sensations. It is possible that release of ATP into the extracellular space may contribute to this symptom. In the present study, we used real-time measurements of ATP-induced bioluminescence together with electrophysiological recordings of compound action potentials to follow changes in the extracellular ATP concentration of isolated rat spinal roots exposed to mechanical stimuli. Nerve compression for about 8 s resulted in an immediate release of ATP into the extracellular space and in a decrease in the amplitude of compound action potentials. On average, a rise in ATP to 60 nM was observed when nerve compression blocked 50% of the myelinated axons. After the compression, the extracellular concentration of ATP returned to the resting level within a few minutes. The importance of ecto-nucleotidases for the recovery period was determined by exposure of isolated spinal roots to high concentrations of ATP and by use of inhibitors of ecto-nucleotidases. It was observed that spinal roots have a high capacity for ATP hydrolysis which is only partially blocked by βγ-methylene ATP and ARL 67156. In conclusion, acute nerve compression produces an increase in the extracellular concentration of ATP and of its metabolites which may be sufficient for activation of purinergic P2 and/or P1 receptors on axons of nociceptive afferent neurons

C3 Glomerulopathy and Related Disorders in Children: Etiology-Phenotype Correlation and Outcomes

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Membranoproliferative GN and C3 glomerulopathy are rare and overlapping disorders associated with dysregulation of the alternative complement pathway. Specific etiologic data for pediatric membranoproliferative GN/C3 glomerulopathy are lacking, and outcome data are based on retrospective studies without etiologic data. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: A total of 80 prevalent pediatric patients with membranoproliferative GN/C3 glomerulopathy underwent detailed phenotyping and long-term follow-up within the National Registry of Rare Kidney Diseases (RaDaR). Risk factors for kidney survival were determined using a Cox proportional hazards model. Kidney and transplant graft survival was determined using the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS: Central histology review determined 39 patients with C3 glomerulopathy, 31 with immune-complex membranoproliferative GN, and ten with immune-complex GN. Patients were aged 2-15 (median, 9; interquartile range, 7-11) years. Median complement C3 and C4 levels were 0.31 g/L and 0.14 g/L, respectively; acquired (anticomplement autoantibodies) or genetic alternative pathway abnormalities were detected in 46% and 9% of patients, respectively, across all groups, including those with immune-complex GN. Median follow-up was 5.18 (interquartile range, 2.13-8.08) years. Eleven patients (14%) progressed to kidney failure, with nine transplants performed in eight patients, two of which failed due to recurrent disease. Presence of >50% crescents on the initial biopsy specimen was the sole variable associated with kidney failure in multivariable analysis (hazard ratio, 6.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.05 to 36.6; P50% crescents on the initial biopsy specimen. CONCLUSIONS: Crescentic disease was a key risk factor associated with kidney failure in a national cohort of pediatric patients with membranoproliferative GN/C3 glomerulopathy and immune-complex GN. Presenting eGFR and crescentic disease help define prognostic groups in pediatric C3 glomerulopathy. Acquired abnormalities of the alternative pathway were commonly identified but not a risk factor for kidney failure

Statistical practices of educational researchers: An analysis of their ANOVA, MANOVA, and ANCOVA analyses

Articles published in several prominent educational journals were examined to investigate the use of data-analysis tools by researchers in four research paradigms: between-subjects univariate designs, between-subjects multivariate designs, repeated measures designs, and covariance designs. In addition to examining specific details pertaining to the research design (e.g., sample size, group size equality/inequality) and methods employed for data analysis, we also catalogued whether: (a) validity assumptions were examined, (b) effect size indices were reported, (c) sample sizes were selected based on power considerations, and (d) appropriate textbooks and/or articles were cited to communicate the nature of the analyses that were performed. Our analyses imply that researchers rarely verify that validity assumptions are satisfied and accordingly typically use analyses that are nonrobust to assumption violations. In addition, researchers rarely report effect size statistics, nor do they routinely perform power analyses to determine sample size requirements. We offer many recommendations to rectify these shortcomings.Social Sciences and Humanities Research Counci

Improvement of a synthetic lure for Anopheles gambiae using compounds produced by human skin microbiota

Background - Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto is considered to be highly anthropophilic and volatiles of human origin provide essential cues during its host-seeking behaviour. A synthetic blend of three human-derived volatiles, ammonia, lactic acid and tetradecanoic acid, attracts A. gambiae. In addition, volatiles produced by human skin bacteria are attractive to this mosquito species. The purpose of the current study was to test the effect of ten compounds present in the headspace of human bacteria on the host-seeking process of A. gambiae. The effect of each of the ten compounds on the attractiveness of a basic blend of ammonia, lactic and tetradecanoic acid to A. gambiae was examined. Methods- The host-seeking response of A. gambiae was evaluated in a laboratory set-up using a dual-port olfactometer and in a semi-field facility in Kenya using MM-X traps. Odorants were released from LDPE sachets and placed inside the olfactometer as well as in the MM-X traps. Carbon dioxide was added in the semi-field experiments, provided from pressurized cylinders or fermenting yeast. Results - The olfactometer and semi-field set-up allowed for high-throughput testing of the compounds in blends and in multiple concentrations. Compounds with an attractive or inhibitory effect were identified in both bioassays. 3-Methyl-1-butanol was the best attractant in both set-ups and increased the attractiveness of the basic blend up to three times. 2-Phenylethanol reduced the attractiveness of the basic blend in both bioassays by more than 50%. Conclusions - Identification of volatiles released by human skin bacteria led to the discovery of compounds that have an impact on the host-seeking behaviour of A. gambiae. 3-Methyl-1-butanol may be used to increase mosquito trap catches, whereas 2-phenylethanol has potential as a spatial repellent. These two compounds could be applied in push-pull strategies to reduce mosquito numbers in malaria endemic areas