Cataloging-in-Publication Data Joint Bank-Fund Library

Managing volatile capital flows: experiences and lessons for Sub-Saharan African frontier markets / prepared by Trevor Alleyne [and eight others], under the guidance of Anne-Marie Gulde-Wolf. – Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund, 2014. pages.; cm Includes bibliographical references. ISBN: 978-1-61635-884-

Sovereign Debt Restructuring and Debt Sustainability

Restoring a country's debt to a sustainable path after a sovereign debt restructuring is key to ensuring a credible and durable exit from the crisis. In recent years, a number of countries have restructured their sovereign liabilities, either following a default, or preemptively, to avoid a default. This Occasional Paper takes stock of the experiences of some of these countries--Argentina, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Moldova, Pakistan, Russia, Ukraine, and Uruguay--with debt-restructuring operations, with a view to assessing the outcomes and whether debt sustainability has been restored. The emphasis of the study is on sovereign debt owed to private creditors.

The Risk Premium on Italian Government Debt, 1976-88

The behavior of the yield differential between government and nongovernment bonds in Italy between 1976 and 1988 is considered. The trend increase of the differential in this period was significantly influenced by the deterioration of public finances, as reflected both by an increase in the supply of government paper relative to nongovernment paper and by a worsening of selected default-risk indicators. The effect of relative supply factors, in turn, was found to be statistically more robust and quantitatively more important than that of risk indicators in explaining movements in yield differentials.

The Risk Premiumon Italian Government Debt, 1976-1988

This paper considers the behavior of the yield differential between government and nongovernment bonds in Italy between 1976 and 1988. It is shown that the trend increase of the differential observed in this period was significantly influenced by the deterioration of public finances, as reflected both by an increase in the relative supply of government with respect to nongovernment paper and by a worsening of selected default risk indicators. In addition, the effect of relative supply factors was found to be statistically more robust and quantitatively more important than the effect of risk indicators in explaining the movements of the yield differential.

The Egyptian Stock Market

The paper examines the behavior of stock returns in the Egyptian stock exchange, the efficiency of the market in pricing securities, and the relationship between returns and conditional volatility. GARCH(p,q)-M models estimated for the four best known daily indices indicate significant departures from the efficient market hypothesis; the tendency for returns to exhibit volatility clustering; and a significant positive link between risk and returns, which was significantly affected during the market downturn that followed the introduction of circuit breakers in the form of symmetric price limits on individual shares.

The Persistence of Capital Account Crises

This study contributes to the literature on capital account crises in two ways. First, our analysis of crisis episodes between 1994 and 2002 establishes a clear relationship between the persistence of crises, their complexity, and the intensity of movement of key macroeconomic variables. Second, we provide a systematic examination of the determinants of crisis duration. Our econometric analysis suggests that initial conditions and the external environment plays a key role in determining crisis persistence. The policy response also matters, but cannot offset a record of poor past policies. Overall, the results underscore the critical importance of crisis prevention efforts.Capital controls;Capital outflows;Data analysis;Economic models;Exchange rate regimes;External sector;capital account crises, capital account, capital flows, private capital flows, current account, current account balance, capital account crisis, crisis prevention, private capital, capital outflow, net capital flows, current account deficit, capital markets, government bonds, current account deficits, capital inflows, market assets, loss of confidence, balance of payments, swift, net capital, current account reversals, official flows, current account adjustment, capital flow

Disinflation in Transition Economies

In light of the persistence of moderate inflation in many transition economies, this paper analyzes whether inflation resulted from insufficiently tight financial policies and wage pressures or from the protracted adjustment of relative prices. Using a new database for 21 countries, the effect of relative price variability on inflation is estimated within a framework controlling for nominal and real shocks. Money and wage growth were the most important determinants of inflation; relative price variability had a sizable effect at high inflation during initial liberalization and a small effect at moderate inflation. Cost recovery may contribute to variability, particularly in the advanced stages of the transition.

The Macroeconomic Effects of ESAF-Supported Programs

This paper examines whether ESAF-supported programs during 1986-91 had significant independent effects on growth, inflation and the external debt service ratio. Econometric estimates of the Generalized Evaluation Estimator (GEE) identify statistically significant beneficial effects on output growth and the debt service ratio but no effects on inflation. The robustness of these estimates is also examined. Diagnostic tests cast doubt on the applicability of the GEE framework to the ESAF-eligible countries, and the results obtained using it.

The Duration of Capital Account Crises

This paper examines the duration of capital account crises. We develop a new index to identify both the start and the end of these crises. Applying the index to a sample of 18 crisis episodes, we derive stylized facts on crisis duration and review the economic and financial circumstances that prevailed at the dusk of crises, a relatively unexplored area. We use the econometric technique of duration analysis to gauge the relative importance of various factors affecting the probability of exiting a crisis. We find that initial and external conditions are key determinants. But fiscal and monetary policies can also help shorten crisis duration.